Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Weekly ONS survey is out, lower estimate than REACT (ONS "incidence rate of 51,900 is just over half that reported by REACT, though even that number is up 47% on the week") and similar estimate to Zoe (46k).

"The devolved nations' figures for infectivity are put at: Wales 1 in 120, N Ireland 1 in 80 and Scotland 1 in 140. "

Figure for England is 1 in 100 (1%) but this varies from approx 1 in 50 in the North West and Yorkshire/Humber (2%) to 1 in 200 (0.5%) in East England, South East and South West.

Yorks/Humber steepest increase, North East England levelling off or declining a little.

mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1322157782020358145

46

Here is the latest data from the ONS infection survey.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

"The number of infections continues to increase; an estimated 568,100 people (95% credible interval: 536,500 to 600,400) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 17 to 23 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 100 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 100 to 1 in 90)."

This is slightly lower than the figure from the REACT survey this week, which was 1 in 75.

There's been a supply chain failure at Roche, due to moving to a new warehouse. So there's a temporary shortage and hence some prioritising .

Of the blood tests....
( In case everyone was totally befuddled as to what I was referring to☺️)

@TheSunIsStillShining 45.

The ons report is quite a bit lower than the 4
React study at about 50k cases a day.

"There has been growth in all age groups over the past two weeks; older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest current rates while rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children."

Week 17-23 oct - which was half term in some places of course.

Sorry yes 46 with rounding!

Independent SAGE about to start here at 1.30

Thanks! :)

... or maybe not re NE.

Which also reminds me to do ds's MORI test.

Glimmer of hope even as Covid cases rise www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54748633

Have I understood it right that if we have around 50,000 cases a day atm and cases doubling in less than 2 weeks, unless we do more the stats will be on a par with lockdown level in less than 2 weeks?

TheSunIsStillShining I make it 46 when rounded up.

@Reastie

Have I understood it right that if we have around 50,000 cases a day atm and cases doubling in less than 2 weeks, unless we do more the stats will be on a par with lockdown level in less than 2 weeks?

In fact, we have more like 100,000 cases a day according to the REACT figures published this week.

Of course, we don't know exactly what the lockdown level was, as testing wasn't widely available.

But you are quite right that, sadly, we are getting there.

Sorry, I missed the answer.

BBC report on the REACT study

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54723962

In fact I missed 2 answers, I know I need new glasses but that was bad.

@herecomesthsun I thought it was accepted that waiting so long to lockdown before was the cause of our epically long lockdown yet they seem to be allowing it to get to the same level again

Another thing I don’t understand though is they are saying this wave there will be less deaths as we have improved medication/ways to treat covid, but last time they left a lot of people home when they should've been in hospital, or admitted later than they should have because of the anxiety of running out of space and not admitting people. So, if they acknowledge now that more timely treatment has better results surely that will mean more people being admitted to hospital than before? Surely that’ll mean even if death stats are lower, hospitals will have more strain on them than last time? Or am I missing something.

I’ve been expecting a press conference as they seemed to be doing a couple each week. Then I thought perhaps parliament breaks for half term? Anyone know what’s going on?

24405 cases
274 deaths

@ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough
Parliament is definitely in recess this week but given the pandemic I'd expect most ministers to be holding meetings etc as usual. But I suspect they will use the recess as an excuse for no press conferences this week. Some ministers have been doing the rounds with the media this week but nobody has seen Boris.

Numbers, although grim, at least don't show another major increase.
Am hopeful that the NW saw something of a peak on 19th October, since then numbers have been a bit lower.

Good (I think) news on testing. Capacity yesterday at 481k so they might get to 500 by the end of October! Tests processed nothing like that but the highest ever (I think) yesterday at 348k. You would really hope that the extra capacity would mean the possibility of speeding up the tests that they are doing.

Well the ONS figures might not look as bad as REACT's, but see the SAGE report written on 14 Oct but only released today (link in the article) - not good news at all:

www.bbc..uk/news/uk

[quote Reastie]@herecomesthsun I thought it was accepted that waiting so long to lockdown before was the cause of our epically long lockdown yet they seem to be allowing it to get to the same level again

Another thing I don’t understand though is they are saying this wave there will be less deaths as we have improved medication/ways to treat covid, but last time they left a lot of people home when they should've been in hospital, or admitted later than they should have because of the anxiety of running out of space and not admitting people. So, if they acknowledge now that more timely treatment has better results surely that will mean more people being admitted to hospital than before? Surely that’ll mean even if death stats are lower, hospitals will have more strain on them than last time? Or am I missing something.[/quote]
No, you aren't missing anything, sadly.

The scientists called for a lockdown in September, but were overruled because it was felt that the economy should be prioritised.

The government doesn't seem to agree with Chris Whitty that unless we get more of a handle on the virus, our economy will suffer far more.

This part of the article summarises, and includes the link :

But an official Sage document, dated 14 Octoberer_ and published today, reveals we are in a worse position than expected.^

Scientists crunching the numbers estimated that, by mid-October, there were between 43,000 and 74,000 people being infected with coronavirus every day in England.

Their report said: "This is significantly above the profile of the reasonable worst-case scenario, where the number of daily infections in England remained between 12,000-13,000 throughout October."

It added that the number of people with Covid needing hospital care is already higher than the winter plan and deaths will "almost certainly" exceed the plan in the next two weeks.

Regional R numbers released today. Gone down a notch from last week.
Region R Growth rate % per day
England 1.1-1.3 +3 to +5
East of England 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
London 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5
Midlands 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
North East and Yorkshire 1.1-1.3 +2 to +5
North West 1.0-1.2 +1 to +3
South East 1.2-1.4 +3 to +6
South West 1.2-1.5 +4 to +7

I'm not surprised by the high rates of increase in secondary school pupils after the behaviour I've seen over half term.

Standing in shop aisles, eating lollies and touching the displays. Yuck!

My town is on the increase quite quickly.
Actually doubling every 7 days atm. We are up to 107 cases per 100k from 65 last week and 38 the week before.
Does anyone know if there's an actual cut off point for restrictions or does it depend on a whole host of the data? Apparently my county has 50 clusters and all but 5 are care homes and schools and households.