Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

[quote MRex]@Piggywaspushed - where did you find out number of cases away/ at home? I can't see that. Thanks

@HoldingTight - that's not correct, because the test capacity doesn't include pillar 3, from today's report on per pillar capacity coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing:
Date 28-10-2020
Pillar 1 161,869
Pillar 2 297,200
Pillar 3 120,000
Pillar 4 9,543
Total 588,612
So the number reported didn't include 120k Pillar 3.
The figures from the labs may well be optimistic if they haven't trialled the new equipment and staff yet, there's even a chance they rely on dropping Pillar 3 testing to meet Pillar 2 demand, I'd want to see more evidence than a random person tweeting though.[/quote]
Thank you MRex - I must learn not to believe everything I read on Twitter!

@NeurotrashWarrior sorry where is the data for the SEN case increase? I think I must’ve missed it

Ah, I can't see any for the west London and Surrey boroughs, that's a shame, thanks though @Piggywaspushed.

It's a little frustrating that I finally got into the staging area (the "experimental" release) and was just enjoying a peek at the smart new view with the percentages, case rates and trends, found something interesting and was kicked out before I could look more!

@lurker101 - the surveillance report linked earlier has more SEN school outbreaks.

Thanks @MRex completely missed the link 😊

The positivity rate is a little bit worrying. All from year 6 upwards above 10%, and only year 13 and possibly year 12 showing signs of slowing.

A message for @littleowl1 if you are still looking at these threads.

Your Covid messenger is is raising potentially malicious software alerts, e.g.zulu.zscaler.com/report/d0d0a101-4f1d-43e6-b655-ffea83e534c5, don't know if you were aware

Whatever the school graphs are showing now, need to be built into the fact it wasn't winter, mild weather and plenty of time outside.
They need to '' model '' current rates with almost total time spent indoors! And colder air which the virus loves etc.

@midgebabe

R for the east could be odd.

There is another large a food factory outbreak and a large outbreak on one estate , with detected levels elsewhere levels are still low enough that these incidents may make things look off

OR

The incidents that have been detected as outbreaks are the tip of an undiagnosed rapid rise in cases

Thanks for the new thread

My own hunch (nothing more than that) is that the food factory will be contained and the housing estate could be the tip of the iceberg.

You may be right James, there seem to be more significant "localised" outbreaks popping up

The 'top' 100 Local Authorities from @RP131. Leeds, Kirklees and Calderdale at 34,35 and 36 all heading into Tier 3.

twitter.com/RP131/status/1321855603787051008

Thanks @HangingOverTheEdge. Yes I still pop into thread - although trying to have a little rest - Covid Messenger is 7 days a week service so have been trying to cut down a bit on the other elements to try to recharge.

And thank you for flagging this to me - I have been on to Zscaler this morning, and my host and my security provider to check this. It seems erroneous as we are all clear on all scans. But I will get to bottom of why it's flagging anyway.

Also, I don't know if anyone has noticed the Gov uk data access API has changed. They have added new stats such as number of tests by pillar, hospital cases, male cases, female cases, covid occupied beds by region and other NHS related etc. They seem to have slipped them in without really advertising it.

The docs aren't great yet on these new parameters but hopefully that will come - it certainly should lead to some pretty insightful analysis.

I also noticed that they have updated their docs to indicate they expect to add more parameters over time as more data becomes available - will be interesting to see what gets added.

@RP131 data really highlights Bristol as an abnormality not having extra restrictions.

Apparently they are moving to Tier 1+ which they seem to have made up themselves and is very vague:
thebristolcable.org/2020/10/new-covid-measures-for-bristol-as-city-announces-tier-1-in-response-to-rising-infections/

This might be of interest:
No new info really, but at least it has the links to the studies which I like

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3

I "love" the UK part:

"Data on school outbreaks in England have also shown that adults were often the first to be infected. Most of the 30 confirmed school outbreaks in June involved transmission between staff members, and only 2 involved student-to-student spread."
They forget to mention that in June we had a very small number of kids and they were spaced out and much safer than now.....

"But “we don’t actually understand the natural history of transmission in children, because we mitigate against it”, says paediatrician Fiona Russell at the University of Melbourne, Australia, who was involved in the Victoria school-outbreaks study. Children aren’t in a typical school environment — instead, they’re social distancing, wearing masks and following other precautions."
They should look over here, we're not doing that so uk schools are good petri dishes.

Has anyone heard anything about blood tests? I have a condition where I have annual blood tests, had a test 3 months ago and they changed my meds as a result. I'm due to have a blood test next month to monitor the dosage. Just had a text to say the local surgery can no longer do blood tests. Our hospital has notified them they can't process the tests. Not sure where that leaves me. I will send an email asking where we go next but just wondered if this is a local issue or national.

@TheSunIsStillShining

This might be of interest: No new info really, but at least it has the links to the studies which I like

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02973-3

I "love" the UK part:

"Data on school outbreaks in England have also shown that adults were often the first to be infected. Most of the 30 confirmed school outbreaks in June involved transmission between staff members, and only 2 involved student-to-student spread."
They forget to mention that in June we had a very small number of kids and they were spaced out and much safer than now.....

"But “we don’t actually understand the natural history of transmission in children, because we mitigate against it”, says paediatrician Fiona Russell at the University of Melbourne, Australia, who was involved in the Victoria school-outbreaks study. Children aren’t in a typical school environment — instead, they’re social distancing, wearing masks and following other precautions."
They should look over here, we're not doing that so uk schools are good petri dishes.

If children are not showing the same 3 symptoms as adults, which they increasingly seem to not be, they won’t ever get tested, so it’s very difficult to monitor the spread and very easy to blame the adults.

@ancientgran there is an issue with one of the chemicals used nationally. Some hospitals are suffering more than others. We are on county border and one hospital having issues and other isn't. But it's only a short term issue, expected to resolve v quickly I gather

My baby has had her regular blood tests all year (last one was a few weeks ago)

Thank you for the new thread🙏 I want to recommend this BMJ podcast, in particular the most recent episode with Chris whitty
www.bmj.com/archive/podcasts

We possibly might want to add

www.i-sense.org.uk/news/i-sense-covid-19-dashboard-highlights-gaps-data-england-needed-address-pandemic

to the links in the next OP, what did people think of it?

It highlights what data we have and what data we don't have, so it's definitely a friend to people on this thread!

PrayingandHoping, thanks for that. I wouldn't normally worry as just an annual test to keep an eye on things but if I am being overdosed it can be serious. Trust me to have the med changed just when this is an issue. Last time it happened I ended up as an emergency admission to the cardiac unit as everything went a bit haywire.

@ancientgran as Praying says it's a national problem and has been going on for weeks. I have monthly blood tests and it depends what the test is as to whether it can be processed. Some of mine were done. The hospitals were told to conserve supplies of the chemical involved for emergency / life threatening situations.

Scotland announce face masks for upper secondary and no coming into school for shielding students if in tier 4 (which no one is yet)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54748253

help me out with the math pls.

We have 216/100,000 cases in the local area where we live. Population is 21,260. How many people are actually positive?

This feels like it would be a good gcse question :)

Today's ONS report

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30october2020