563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

@Bluntness100

Which mathematically is true, but clearly the percentage of increase slows as the numbers get bigger, so continual doubling is highly unlikely based on our rate of infection..

That’s helpful, thank you. Makes sense.

Prof Witty said in his first TV outing that 80% infected of the 66.8 million population with 1% death so this is nearly the start of our first peak IMO.

I think it will only slow once the majority of the population has had it. Herd immunity and all that. Not that I like the idea but we have no control, were just living it

According to this: wise-funds.co.uk/news/journal-of-the-plague-year-chapter-4 peak possibly around 2 weeks after lockdown, so for the UK, that would be around this coming Sunday/Monday/Tuesday. But most likely a lag between peak new cases and peak deaths, so the latter probably later than that.

"Emerging data for European countries suggests that their trajectories through the disease may not be too dissimilar to that of China, in which case the peak of the first wave of corona virus may have passed in
Europe as early as the middle of April. The evolving trends will become clear within the next week or two. Should the disease peak earlier than forecast, there will be intense pressure on governments to
begin normalising activity."

AmelieTaylor And news flash lots if over 70’s DONT die every day and every one of them is someone’s mum/dad/husband/wife or whatever and LIVES MATTER - not just yours & other under 40’s who seem to think they’re fucking immune.

This with absolute bells on. I can't believe this still has to be said.

TryingToBeBold it's because community testing is widespread in Germany. I know 20+ people who have been tested (all negative). I do work in social care - everyone I know with a cough or fever is being tested immediately. They're still talking a lot about the Dunkel Ziffer (the numbers of untested so unacknowledged cases).

The UK probably has at least 5 times more cases than the statistics show.

@BirdandSparrow Agreed and we did too. Italian football match, Cheltenham, Million Women Rise march and various concerts. All will have spread the infection. It was so obvious by Cheltenham that these gatherings should not be happening.

So is it the gatherers who are dying? If we are staying mostly at home are we safe? How are there so many people dying it's so scary.

No way. Plus we’ve got Easter coming and loads of feckers will say ‘oh it will be fine, nobody else will go out’, I’m awaiting the TV news showing loads of people out and about enjoying the spring sunshine.

Deaths are typically around 4 weeks after infection. Even if everyone stayed indoors 100% as of the lockdown 8 days ago, that's still 3 weeks until those who would die from it do so.

3 more weeks minimum.

I really agree with the comment about other 70's being actual valid people with plenty of life left to live. My mum is 66 and still plays such an active role in all of her childrens and grandchildrens lives. So many people rely on their parents for support once they have their own children. It would be such a tragedy if so many people lost but just people they loved dearly but people who had so much practical involvement in their lives. Not everyone 70+ just lives a solitary quiet life in retirement.

Should we not be leaving the house? We walk the dog over the local field and get nowhere near anyone but now I wonder if we shouldn't do that.

Sorry just realised that comment was many pages ago now

I know we are all at perfect liberty to post what 'we think will happen' but this thread is just full of contradictory information from 'we are at the peak' to 'we are 11 weeks away' and I have Itallian friends...sorry OP if ou really did have a serious question you will not get your answer here.

clearly the percentage of increase slows as the numbers get bigger, so continual doubling is highly unlikely based on our rate of infection..

This, of course, true but only when we start to reach a significant proportion of the population who have had the disease. Best guess is that that is a long way off. Certainly comparing us with the progress of similar countries is reasonable and has held up well do far.

I can't take these figures seriously because so few are being tested! 500+ deaths in a day reported.. how many more died today in their homes / care homes all untested. It's a complete shit storm and bound to get worse. I'm not surprised in the slightest, I've been watching for months.. the sad fact is China's figures will be a small drop in the ocean at this rate.

Peak will come in the next week or two

No we are unfortunately just at the start.

Italy reported its first case on the 29th of January and the UK reported its first case on the 30th of January. Germany reported its first case on the 26th of January.
So all these countries were reporting first cases around the same time give or take a few days. I am intrigued by the figures that are saying that Germany and Italy have thousands of critical patients and yet the UK has less than 200 ?
In answer to the OP's original question, I don't think we have reached anything like a peak yet, 2-4 weeks would be my guess. The UK simply isn't testing enough, the reasons for this lack of testing don't appear to be clear.

The lockdown is going to be reviewed after Easter, so I'm guessing our peak will be round that time, with regional differences. Remember we have mini clusters in different regions.

Peak is going to be Easter they say. Which correlates to the people infected at the time when the government first suggested social distancing and the majority of the population ignored them. It's very sad and I still feel angry towards the selfish idiots who didn't think social distancing applied to them.

The peak of deaths will be somewhere around 1-2 weeks after the peak of cases.

We had quite a few new cases today so even if we are very optimistic we're 7-14 days away from the peak (of this wave, more waves likely to come).

I think the peak will be later than easter in the UK.

The critical patients in the UK (on Worldometer for example) have never been correct. The figure stayed at 20 critical for 8 days running giving rise to people on here saying anyone concerned about Covid was a scaremongerer and liar because only 20 people were really sick. They continued to beat their own bizarre drum even when actual HPs working in affected hospitals pointed out they had more cases than that in their own hospital.

Italy's rate of increase continued to rise sharply for the first two weeks of lockdown nationally, only beginning to level off last Friday.

Agree wholeheartedly with the posters thankfully not of the "but they were old and going to die anyway" ageist fuckwittage. I know MN isn't as representative of the general population as it likes to think it is, and as it probably actually was around ten years ago, but the ageism on here is foul.

Italy just extended all its lockdown provisions till 13/4.

So if it is set to peak, what extra measures are they taking to stop this from happening?

Why are we in a lockdown if the amount of deaths continue to 'peak'? Also why are vulnerable people continuing to die if we are self-isolating?

It doesn't seem to be working to me if a majority of people will recover as if it was the common cold.