563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

[1forsorrow]

It was beautiful today, blue sky and sunny but cool wind. Was a lovely walk, just a pain walking back up the hill to get back home.

[Pishposhpashy]

the entire of the UK is in a state of lockdown, do you think the Government are scaremongering ?

Of course I don't, I am fully supportive of the lockdown.

I think plenty of posters on here are scaremongering by literally stating wild guesses as fact, though.

[frumpety]

Ah thanks Justmuddlingalong

[Oakmaiden]

@Zilla1

Yes, you are right, the graph is critical care not deaths (it is from the Imperial study) but the deaths will follow pretty much the same shape, just with smaller numbers.

@StealthPolarBear No, you are right too - I wasn't clear there. The highest peak would be unmitigated, then less strict restrictions and then the lowest would be a strict lockdown. And the nearest (quickest) peak would be strict lockdown, probably followed by letting it run, followed by weak restrictions.

I think the Government are trying to navigate a path here (that may colloquially known as "having your cake and eating it".

Letting it run would have least economic impact but by far the largest number of deaths. Obviously large numbers of deaths will themselves have some economic impact, and morally our Government eventually decided they couldn't justify the number of deaths.

A strict lockdown would have the most economic impact, but would have fewest deaths. The Government are not willing (currently) to take this action.

And then there are middle paths - which the government are trying to take, where you keep the number of deaths as low as you can whilst enabling as much economic action to continue as possible. Which for the UK means trying to make sure we have enough capacity for people who get ill, thus limiting the number of deaths. The problem with this strategy is it is inevitably going to be the slowest strategy - so overall you get a high number of deaths and a high economic impact, but not the catastrophe that either of the other routes lead to.

That is my understanding, anyway.

[buttermilkwaffles]

"UK must remain in full lockdown until June to avoid worst effects of #covid19, UK gov leading epidemiology adviser said.
Senior govt figures more optimistic, suggesting restrictions could be eased sooner than June: peak of crisis expected in week of April 12.
mobile.twitter.com/lindayueh/status/1244203389325582336

[jasjas1973]

Surely the most sensible path would be mass testing and isolation of patients? limiting deaths and the economic impact.

Not sure why they have ignored the successes of countries that have followed this plan, Germany has tested 700,000 people.

www.itv.com/news/2020-03-31/robert-peston-is-gove-right-that-there-is-a-shortage-of-test-kit-ingredients/

[Bigfishylittlefishy]

My brother went Cheltenham and was very ill with COVID-19. He has just recovered after a good ten days of sweats and a cough. I presume if his condition deteriorated he would be in hospital right now or in the next few days.

[CtrlU]

This is scary. I actually just had to check this online ! 563 !! And that’s just in the last 24 hours

[IdblowJonSnow]

Far from it I'm afraid.

[Confuddledtown]

Did you know in the Uk there are around 1,500 deaths a day. Without the virus

If someones family member died in a car crash, would you tell them to get some perspective because 1499 other people died that day from other causes?

It doesnt matter how many other people died today - all of them are tragic. And yes more people might have died today from things other than coronavirus but soon we could over take that. And out of 2000 people dying, having a quarter of those die from one cause is very dramatic and alarming.

I hate listing number like this. They are people. Not statistics.

[RestYourHead]

@buttermilkwaffles thank you for posting that graph, it has made the most sense to me out of everything I've been reading.

[BeetrootRocks]

Interesting point.

Cars are a massive cause of serious injury and death. Especially of children and young people. As a society we accept this, basically, because we like our cars.

That's a poor example tbh.

[Iwannabeadored20]

So, actually at the moment due to less traffic on the road, fewer people playing a sport, etc the daily number quoted of 1,500 would be lower. Which makes the coronavirus deaths a higher percentage overall

[bessness]

I'm going to say no, I don't think we're anywhere near our peak. I work in manufacturing and there is currently a Gov enquiry out to tender, to quote to manufacturer 16,000 metal trolleys suitable for human use..... I'm assuming use for hospital bed but also transport & after death 😥

[Confuddledtown]

Cars are a massive cause of serious injury and death. Especially of children and young people. As a society we accept this, basically, because we like our cars.

Coronavirus is going to be a massive cause of death. As society we accept this, basically, because we like doing what we like, when we like, and are too selfish to stay indoors.

Whether I had picked car accidents, cancer, flu or any other cause of death, my point still stands - just because 1500 people die of other causes, does not mean that the 500+ coronavirus deaths are dismissable. People are using this reasoning to minimize the devastation this illness will cause, and using it to justify to ignore social distancing and call an end to the lockdown.

[BeetrootRocks]

Pollution decreased as well. A few years back it said that 1000s died each year in London as a result of pollution.

However, the middle and long term effects of this are not trivial at all, will result in a lot of deaths and incapacity.

There's no easy or right answer to this. Any approach seems to result in a total shitshow. I'm not saying our govt or any other govt approach is wrong, this is unprecedented. We're in for a tough time. There are other things that bother me but not for this thread.

Best option given vaccine 18-24 months off, if they find one, is that it can be confirmed that having had it makes you immune, there's a reliable test, and low risk people can start getting back to normal. On the other hand I think there would be resentment about those who could go out, so on practice that probably wouldn't work.

What I do think is there needs to be some loosening at some points to give people something to look forward to. Humans are social animals, the thought of this till October and then more, I think the toll of that would be large and not just for the economy.

[GabsAlot]

i read they were now including people dying at home of covd-no idea if thats correct

also that they were putting down covid as cause of death if it was in your sytem whther or not theyve died of that is another thing

[Quartz2208]

I think the rate at which this is going a vaccine is only going to help going forward I think there is only one way out of this

[Zilla1]

Gabs, in England, deaths are being included if COVID is mentioned on the death cert in the community. There has been no testing in the community here. In theory, it's down to when the death cert is written whether COVID is mentioned. You might ask whether any of the suspected COVID deaths in the community here have COVID mentioned on the death cert....

Regarding vaccination, 12-18 months would be an heroic acceleration though huge resources and political pressure are being devoted (we can look at WW2 to see what that can achieve [Manhatten project]). One worry is that have there been many corona virus diseases that have been able to have a vaccine made. If there is a fundamental biological characteristic of corona viruses that makes making a vaccine possible then that might not be easily overcome even with resources.

[AmelieTaylor]

@Readyforapummelling 🌷thank you. I had to stop responding. You can’t argue with stupid

@bessness -yes & it’s not the only one! Plus they’re not building huge new ‘hospitals’ with thousands of beds for shits & giggles are they 🙄

[tegucigalpa13]

And out of 2000 people dying having a quarter of those dying from one cause is very dramatic and alarming

But that is not what is happening. People are dying as usual from a range of illnesses - at an average rate of about 1600 per day, more in winter. Many will be dying WITH corona not necessarily OF corona. My DGM died at 97 of pneumonia - but she had cancer and dementia as well. It was the pneumonia that tipped her over the edge but she was going to go at some stage in any case.

Nobody wants to downplay the impact of Covid 19 but it is unecessarily alarmist to assume that all these deaths are additional deaths.

[anothernotherone]

Gabs there are now two sets of statistics for the UK, one including only hospital deaths caused primarily by covid-19 and one set including all deaths of patients testing positive at time of death.

It's explained on the government website, you need to skim down the page:

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases-and-deaths

[Zilla1]

Amelie, nor are they building the temporary mortuary/morgue capacity for no reason though let's hope some of the contingencies being planned for and/or put in place are not all needed.

[alloutoffucks]

@anothernotherone Thanks. The stats announced on the news are for deaths caused by corona.