563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

You think this is our peak? Seriously? It hasn’t really touched us yet. It’s only just got going.

I think we’ve been tracking, fairly consistently at around 16 days behind. I think we hit 10 deaths 16 days behind them and since then have tracked their path pretty consistently with a couple of divergences. I think we went from 10 to 50 slightly quicker, then slowed a bit and have accelerated again.

If it doubles every 2-3 days we'll be on 1000 by the weekend

No, peak is still a long way off. This is why people need listen to the Government and stay home or it will get even worse!

Italy's peak is expected between 3rd and 10th of April and those predicted dates haven't changed since lockdown.

Italy's majority of cases are in one region, which was locked down 3 days before the national lockdown and in that region hotspot towns had been locked down since late February.

The experts are now predicting region by region what date each region will be Covid new case/death free. The last one estimated to be Tuscany on 16th May.

Obviously there are blips and variables to take into account, one person from each house goes food shopping etc so it's not a total Wuhan lockdown.

TryingToBeBold The US had over 900 deaths yesterday.

@SabineSchmetterling

Today was a jump. I think the true telltale sign will be over this weekend and next weekend.

It's gone up because they are now counting people who died sat home or in old peoples homes, they werent counting them before.

@SabineSchmetterling

Sorry yes. I stand corrected. Abnormal jump given the deaths so far and today (the website I look at is reset at midnight)

Doubt it.

TabbyMumz

Unfortunatley that's not the case. These are just hospital deaths.

We may well be tracking around 16 days behind but that will soon diverge. Italy brought in lock down in the most affected region way back in Fabruary. We didn't lock down our worst affect area until 4 weeks later. There'll be a high price to pay for those 2 weeks of allowing it to spread freely.

If it doubles every 2 days and the peak is even 2 week away the potential total is very frightening

TabbyMumz no, these are still only the figures for those hospitalised. The figures of those who died at home aren’t included. Although the ONS is now publishing them, their figures only went up to 20th March and showed that on that date we had 24% more Covid deaths than the daily figures showed. Those extra deaths aren’t included in the figures released today though. The statement specifically says that it refers only to people who were hospitalised.

@1forsorrow why the fuck were you on the beach then? You don't fucking own it!

BTW, I expect everyone understands but it might be an idea to bear in mind the curve has a 'shape' and 'size' so if/when people are looking at or trying to judge if/when the 'peak' has/will happen(ed), comparing where the UK is to Italy and others countries based on 'absolute' numbers and days (200 on day x), probably isn't too meaningful unless both the size of the population and the characteristics of that population (when locked down, social behaviour, % male/female with risk factors and age profile - smoking, CHD, diabetes and so on) are nearly identical. If not, looking at absolute numbers and day X may (will) mislead.

We won't know what the peak is until figures start to plateau and then drop. Peak is clearly some way off if you look at other countries. So my default is assume it will rise every day and then probably have a random small drop before rising again to the actual peak. I'm only going to pay detailed attention to figures again once that plateau is solid. That will be a little glimmer....

Look at the shape of every death graph, apart from South Korea and a very few places who have dealt with things very differently from us. We are on a clear trajectory and we are NOWHERE near the top of the curve...

Has not started yet unfortunately:(

Vaginandtonic Glad you agree with me. There are so many numbers being thrown out here and there are facts that are easily verified as incorrect. It's a shame because there are probably some fact based suggestions amongst them.

@Zilla1

Thank you for providing a more detailed explanation

Again.
What are Germany doing that nowhere else is..

I don’t think these figures include the ones who have died at home without a confirmed positive test

Testing, testing, testing

They don’t include people who died at home even if they tested positive.