563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

Did you know in the Uk there are around 1,500 deaths a day. Without the virus.

Do you really think people will head to beaches and parks?! Surely not.

I'd assume the police would be on that very quickly.

I agree with PPs who think the peak is still a couple of weeks away.

Peak in June

What's the NHS in the North?

Are they still only testing some people, or are they testing everyone who dies now

@Orangeblossom78
Where did you hear this?

@code I thought the same

Peak in June is just impossible we cannot go on like this for 12 weeks

Sadly not.

It is going to get worse. A lot worse.

I honestly can't wrap my head around the fact that there are STILL group gatherings, parties, bbq's. This is so apocalyptic and yet some people still don't get it!

No - it will not be the peak. Today there were 25% more infections (I.e. more admissions to hospital for people with the virus) than any other day. This will be reflected in the number of deaths in a few days' time. Look at the shape of these curves - there is a lag of about 4/5 days between them.

I'm trying to see if there is a correlation between the number of infections and the day of the week (I.e. a number of days after the weekend) - but it's not clear yet - need a few more weeks' data.

Italy’s experts don’t believe that they’ve hit peak yet. On that basis it’s at least 3 weeks away for us. Might be a bit sooner in London. In terms of deaths the people who will die in 3 weeks time are mostly already infected now.

Look apart from anything else they have already said if we get fewer than 20,000 deaths we will have done extremely well

We can’t ‘do well’ If People keep making puddly excuses to go out & whinging that the police are trying to keep us safe

STAY HOME -SAVE LIVES

You don’t have to like it, just fucking doit!! it’s a small amount of a lifetime for the greater good.

(Obviously anyone in an abusive situation needs to leave!!)

Which European countries have reached their peak? I don't think either Italy or Spain have definitely done so, and we are a couple of weeks behind Italy.

So it's another 'we don't know', though it is almost certainly 2 -3 weeks at least before we peak.

OP, it is sad to see this and clearly people don't care. Yesterday I went to Lidl to a few essentials and a couple men walked past and said why are these people wearing mask and gloves,it's only the coronavirus. I had to stand my ground with them. I work in the nhs and it's sad to see people dying.

Peak in June is just impossible we cannot go on like this for 12 weeks

I spoke to the virus and it said it couldn't give a shiny shit about what could or couldn't cope with.

People are still gathering and not taking it seriously. Our peak will be a fair few weeks after they decide/are forced to.

Did you know in the Uk there are around 1,500 deaths a day. Without the virus.

Yes, and today that was 33% higher than usual and will continue to go up until it’s probably 100% higher than usual. These are deaths on top of the usual amount, not instead of.

Nope. Just for a bit of perspective folks, average deaths in UK in March is 50,000.

I read that for the last two days, deaths have included those dying at home and in nursing homes which is why the numbers are higher. We will never know if a lot of the deaths are due to CV or something else.

Clearly we are in an awful situation but I really think the media are making things sound much worse. Lots of old people die every day from a multitude of different things.

more like a few weeks away from peak.
Death rates have been doubling about every 3 days - 1000 people will die in a day by saturday or sunday this week. Hopefully by next week it might level out.

Lockdown started properly about a week ago.
it can take about 2 weeks for infected people to start showing symptoms.
then I think another 2 -3 weeks to die if they are going to die.

Mid-End of April is the likely peak at least.

Best case scenario of around 20k people dieing we are less than 1/10th of the way in. We have a really long way to go

No it is not the peak

We need the number of new cases to peak first. The number of deaths will most likely peak a week or so after that.

The figures for last 2 days are hospital only. The ONS only release the other figures once a week.

Peak in June is just impossible we cannot go on like this for 12 weeks

You can assert that all you like - but yes, this (and worse) is our normal for the mid-term, however 'impossible' that might seem to those who are already impatient with lockdown, want the schools reopened in a few weeks etc etc.

Average time from getting it to dying is 23 days so I think the peak will come around Easter Monday- 3 weeks from Mother's Day when people were still having multigenerational gatherings and queueing their way round National Trusts etc.

A friend who is a hospital doctor told me today they are planning for peak in 3-4 weeks. He also tested positive yesterday and has been told not to work for 7 days. He's been ill (and working) for about a week but fairly mild symptoms - no temperature or cough which is what he says flags you as a possible serious case.