563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

[PrimalLass]

NHS worker friend says they've been told it should get v busy from next weekend. We are in one of the least hit counties so far.

[StealthPolarBear]

Oakmaiden I don't understand why a strict 'peak' would be higher than a less strict peak. I get that with a less strict pek people will continue to get it after the first peak but the original peak cases are still there surely.

[Dontsayyouloveme]

Think it was Sky news that said today the peak will be at the end of this month!

[MintyMabel]

because eg building sites closed

Construction deaths are about 30 a year. Hardly going to make a blip on the daily rate.

[Lovemusic33]

It’s pretty impossible to predict, there’s many things you need to take into account, we can’t realistically compare the uk with other countries, each country went into lockdown at different times, some probably too late, I think we did it at the correct time or maybe slightly too late?

Of course deaths are going to be higher in the next week or two as these are the people that caught it before lockdown, many have been in hospital for weeks, then we will get the front line workers who will come down with it and family members they are in contact with so it’s not going to go away quickly.

[Justmuddlingalong]

DP and I went for a walk on the beach, 2 minutes from our front door on Monday morning. Here's a picture for those who are unnecessarily policing those of us following the guidelines.

[BackInTime]

Cheltenham seems like a lifetime ago. All those people travelling and close to each other.

Ahhh yes when herd immunity was a thing and when large gatherings weren't a risk apparently.

[Quickquestion2020]

We're only just beginning. Its terrifying. PILs broke their shielding quarantine yesterday for no good reason. I'm terrified that they'll be gone in two weeks and preparing myself to support DH through that.

[runrabbitrunrunrun]

Peak is about 10 days away.

[Redwinestillfine]

Sadly not, but if we keep to the lockdown it will come sooner.

[Pishposhpashy]

This thread is disgraceful to be honest. People just sitting here whacking predictions out of nowhere. No one knows when the peak will come.

Some people - epidemiologists, mathematicians, scientists- can make educated guesses, and I prefer to listen to them to be honest.

This is a scary, serious situation and I in no way underestimate its gravity, but there is so much scaremongering on MN at the moment it is absolutely unreal.

[safariboot]

The point of lockdown is to shrink the infection rate down, so that every infected person infects less than one other person.

If this happens you're correct. But I was under the impression that even with the current measures, at the moment the average infectious person still infects more than 1 susceptible person. I might be wrong, I haven't seen the latest data.

So if it is set to peak, what extra measures are they taking to stop this from happening?

The current restrictions, and the temporary hospitals. To keep deaths low, we want everyone who gets sick to get the best treatment we can give. That can only happen if the seriously ill don't all get ill at once, hence the talk of "flattening the peak".

[starlightgazers]

Cheltenham seems like a lifetime ago. All those people travelling and close to each other

I was in Belfast on this day and all the pubs were heaving even though they had been almost deserted the night before. It should not have gone ahead.


I'm ih a commuter trust and the cases are coming thick and fast with no sign of slowing. I'd guess we'll peak in around 3 weeks - best case scenario.

But people need to stop kidding themselves it I just the very elderly/ already very sick people dying. It isn't - obesity (even BMI 30), smokers and mild cases of hypertension are counted as co-morbidities even in the under 40's. People need to stay indoors, no ifs no but or the NHS will not cope, extra hospitals and staff or not.

[Ledkr]

I have just walked the dog round the block and I was pleased to see people very strictly observing the distancing, no cars on the road I needed wine but I will wait till dh does the shopping tomorrow.
It gave me hope that people are taking it seriously.

[Zilla1]

Oakmaiden, I'm not familiar with that graph you've posted, it looks most interesting. My unfounded opinion is that the vertical scale looks a little optimistic (hope I'm wrong). You mention a peak three weeks after a strict lockdown - I could be wrong but the thread title seems to be deaths and the graph seems to relate to critical care bed occupancy. They are related but we're seeing a lag for individuals and with a stick lockdown, there would be some intra-family transmission. My unfounded opinion is that even with a strict lockdown, deaths might peak later than three weeks after a strict lockdown given any staging of intra-household transmission and given it seems to take some of the cohort quite a while to recover (or otherwise) from support.

[Fedupofdoingit]

Speaking to my neighbour over the fence yesterday (at least 5m between us), she was going on about people not following the guidelines. I pointed out that the guidelines applied to her as well (as she is over 75 and goes out at least twice a day), to which she replied “oh I know, I’ll have to follow them!”This afternoon her daughter and grandson picked her up, they went shopping, then came back and were inside house for about half an hour. When they came out I noticed another neighbour coming out as well!

Obviously they all think that it is only other people that have to follow guidelines and they’re exempt!
With this sort of attitude things are going to get much worse!

[EastCoastDamsel]

Nope 😢

[Snorkelface]

Nowhere near.

[frumpety]

justmuddlingalong that beach looks lovely , where are you ?

[bridgetjonesmassivepants]

Mid June for the peak - that's why they have cancelled exams.

[frumpety]

Pishposhpashy the entire of the UK is in a state of lockdown, do you think the Government are scaremongering ?

[Justmuddlingalong]

frumpety I'm in the east neuk of fife.

[1forsorrow]

Justmuddlingalong looks lovely. Madness that people think we shouldn't be able to go for a walk where we live. What do they think we should do? Drive into town to walk down busy streets, or walk to the beach and have a walk with no one/hardly anyone around?

[nellodee]

March 13th and 14th. Events like Cheltenham and Bath half marathon just shouldn't have happened, but they did, so I don't think we're at the peak yet.

[Justmuddlingalong]

It is lovely. We're very lucky. And I'll never take it for granted, ever again.