563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

We'll see a peak over the next 2 weeks-- everyone who was infected before lockdown when we were still freely mingling. They'll be incubating now then it will come out.

After that it should start to slow, slightly, due to lockdown, but it will be gradual. Basing this off incubation period and what is happening with Italy/Spain.

Terrible though the statistics are it is important to keep them in perspective.

Around 1500/1600 people die every day in the UK. What we do not know is whether people dying WITH coronavirus are dying FROM corona virus. Many sadly would have passed away anyway within a day or so.

The vast majority of people in UK are complying with government request that they practice social distancing. And the increased capacity in the NHS means it is unlikely that the health care system will be completely overwhelmed as in Bergamo.

We're sadly seeing deaths of hospital cases that, not definitely but probably, were poor people taken ill in the last few weeks.
The lag is the key, the numbers will increase, so next week our poor NHS will see an increase due to the people who were out and about 3 weeks ago. The effect of our lockdown will be seen in about 2 or 3 weeks.

The deaths are tragic, but the key will be when hospital admissions decrease, and I think we might see that late April.

Getting worse, before it gets better. Bloody awful and sad, but we're not near our peak.

I was teaching two weeks ago in a huge high school. We were advised to wash our hands. Pubs etc still open. That weekend, people in droves flouted advice and went out like it was a Bank Holiday. We'll sadly see the outcomes in the rising numbers in the next couple of weeks.

We should have locked down earlier.

Peak is expected sometime between 6th and 30th April so we've got a way to go yet.

That being said, I work for the NHS and we got some 'good' news on Monday that we were expected to have hit NHS beds capacity by then and we hadn't because of the social distancing put in place, we have moved the curve on a little.

Seasonal- you're in a lockdown so you and your loved ones don't add to those numbers.

Is it really so hard to grasp?

@cary2012 we'll just have to agree to disagree. I'm sur I'm going against tge grain in saying this lockdown is a cop out for governing powers not having a clue of what they are doing. Utter nonsense!

I was told that the truth is that a country isn't really going to know what their 'peak' is until rates actually start to decline. Before that, it's all speculation.

We're being told here (US) that we will reach our (national) 'peak' in mid-April. I'm not holding my breath. When they say 'peak' they base it (at least here) on 100% compliance with 'stay at home'/lockdown orders. And I think we all know that the compliance rate is far below 100%. Again, at least here.

@TheCanterburyWales when did I express misunderstanding of the lockdown?

No, if they are building several massive morgues and cemetries, no.

How is everyone suddenly an epidemiologist? People are doing calculations and stating them as fact!

*Whales

No-one knows is the answer.
All we know is that we are a week closer to getting though this than we were this time last week.

Tragically, don’t think so.

Cheltenham seems like a lifetime ago. All those people travelling and close to each other.

We need stronger measures in place to properly enforce lockdown, at the moment people can bend the rules because nothing is concrete otherwise the death rate is going to be unimaginable!

So if it is set to peak, what extra measures are they taking to stop this from happening?
It's too late to save the people who are going to die at the peak - they will already have been infected. The extra measure to stop future higher peaks are being implemented now in the form of our current lockdown.

Stealthpolarbear and Sunshineafterrain24 two sensible posts among lots of people making up their own theories and numbers. Thank you.

Why the fuck are people going to the beaches and parks ?

When we do go out it's a walk to the beach through a park. 10 minutes from my house.

Three weeks minimum to peak and peak may last several weeks. Nightingale won’t even be fully operational for at least a fortnight (assuming they can find the necessary staffing). It was still only a shell on Monday. Yesterday and today they were beginning to mark up equipment space and then there’ll be privacy screens to go in.

Some of my colleagues are going to work there and arrangements are even agreed yet. Staff accommodation hasn’t been finalised yet either.

@coachman well yes. That is all that can be said at this moment in time.

Here you can see the number of Covid-19 deaths in the UK over time (latest day still missing, from 91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/). Yesterday there were 1793 deaths in total, the growth rate was 1,3x per day. So the projection was 17931.3= 2330.9 for today, and the actual number is 2,352. If the same trend continues tomorrow's number will be today's number 1.3 which is 3057.

About 2 weeks away I think.

It’s going to get (a lot) worse before it gets better.

Why the fuck are people going to the beaches and parks?

Because the park is opposite my front door and is about 4 square miles of open grassy land. Everyone keeping about a 1/4 mile away from everyone else.

It's incredibly sensible, more so that staying on the streets with the public walking by.

Regarding when the peak will be.

My understanding was, if you do a complete and strict lockdown you can effectively stop the virus dead in its tracks - the peak would then come 3 weeks later, and subside very quickly afterwards.

However, a less strict set of restrictions is a very different animal - the virus is still being spread, so it will take longer to get to the peak (longer than both a strict lockdown and just letting it rampage) but that the peak will be much shallower.