@Kindatired ,
‘I think we are going to see an intensification of the destruction and aid blockade between now and the US elections. It’s already escalating by the day and the Israeli right has become daily more brazen in the last couple of weeks in revealing plans to starve and resettle Gaza.’
I don’t really buy this. Israel won’t ignore Biden’s letter. They have already opened crossings for food. Netanyahu isn’t afraid of making things, such as the Lebanon invasion, a fait accompli, but he won’t countermand a direct threat from the U.S.
‘Harris is struggling and the Biden administration is spinning the Israeli tactical successes as joint success. For instance, has disclosed that rather than a random encounter, the execution of Sinwar was supported for months by high level high tech intelligence by CIA operatives that were actually secretly deployed in Israel. The Harris Biden administration is under pressure to bolster support from the powerful pro-Israeli lobby because this powerful lobby has the ability to pivot the election outcome quite quickly using smears and social media interventions.This gives Netanyahu a window of opportunity to run amok unreined and he is seizing his opportunity.’
I really doubt the pro Israel lobby has the power to ‘pivot’ the election outcome. How would they do this? Both sides of the debate can use smears and social media.
‘Netanyahu wants to send a message to Iran that it’s not worth attacking Israel. If he can’t prove to his own people that Israel is safer than anywhere else for Jewish people, this poses an existential threat to Israel- only religious extremists will want to remain in the country and the country would eventually be no different to any other low/midddle income country in the region. As such, it would be in even less of a position to defend itself and because it’s the intelligentsia and wealthy that has forged and maintained the strong bonds with the US.’
I partially agree with this. I don’t believe many Jews would feel safer in Israel than the U.S, say. I can’t really see that changing. I do agree, however, that Israel is pivoting dangerously to the right and becoming more religious. It still hasn’t tipped into a theocracy, but there are dangers it will, and a nuclear armed theocracy is a pretty terrifying idea (one of Israel’s right wing politicians did moot nuking Gaza, which shows him as equally terrifying and thick, given the fallout).
I do think that there is a bit of a misunderstanding as to why the U.S backs Israel almost regardless of what they do. It is the biggest static aircraft carrier that the U.S has in an unstable region full of hydrocarbons, and a nuclear armed ally. I don’t think it is about Israel being democratic or similarly religious to the U.S (unlike in Europe, the U.S see Judaism and Christianity as pretty much the same).
Finally, Israel is a key part of the global high tech chip supply chain. This is currently the single most important industry in the world. The U.S would take a massive hit, both militarily and economically, if Israel’s chip fabrication plants were taken out. I suspect that is, as much as anything else, why the U.S is prepared to defend Israeli soil with its systems and men.