To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

[Gunnersforthecup]

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

Isreal’s actions say that they will not succumb to scumbag terrorists.

"Several prominent members of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition have openly said they are against a two-state solution, with finance minister Bezalel Smotrich having said it is his “life’s mission” to thwart the creation of a Palestinian state, and that he is actively working to ensure the occupied West Bank is permanently annexed to Israel."

So there you clearly have it.

Ps Guardian today.

@BigDecisionWorthIt what are your thoughts on Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal?

Just reading up and you may have more insight

This is a genuine question. What do you mean by succumb? Do you mean Israel will not cease its expansion into and settlement of the occupied territories? Do you mean Israel will not return to pre 67 or pre 48 partition plans? Do you mean will not cease to use massive force against Hamas and Hezbollah regardless of civilian casualties?

Succumb sounds like some kind of macho chest beating to me.

Yes it’s highly concerning

I feel like people are missing the threat

pre 48 partition plans

Before Israel was created? What is that partition?

@Daftasabroom ,

There are a couple of issues that you are conflating here.

Israel is rather worryingly moving from a real democracy to what I believe is classified as a flawed democracy. They are overdue elections and are starting to grant different citizens different rights. I would not deny that this is very concerning. I do think it is incumbent on world Jewry to protest against Israel’s openly racist members of parliament, treatment of POWs and the way settlers are behaving in the West Bank without much response.

However, although Israel is a flawed democracy, it is still a democracy and plenty of Israelis will openly support everything I have written above and can and do openly protest in the streets about it.

On the other hand, Israel’s enemies are not democracies in any sense and Hamas and Hezbollah are both terrorist groups who undemocratically are like cuckoos in Gaza and southern Lebanon, using and hiding behind the civilian population in a cowardly way, deliberately wanting Israel to kill civilians in order to get public opinion on their side. And both these groups are backed by Iran, a theocratic and misogynistic nation who are close to getting nuked.

So Israel firstly need to be supported in its existential struggle against a real axis of evil.

Once they are safe and secure, they need elections and to be pressured into a long term diplomatic two state solution where both Israelis and Palestinians can live in safety and have aspirations.

• getting nukes, not nuked!!

No, the actions of Israel have made us less safe. Nobody in the west was going to stop the rampage. They knew the Israeli leader is a bit calmer than his predecessor so they could push and push. Now Iran reacts to remind Israel that their actions have consequences. Israel are the ones showing that they will do whatever they want. Israel is the one that we need to be very afraid of.

I disagree we’ve been sleep walking into this Iranian threat.

That is who really would go against us

@HelenHen ,

‘They knew the Israeli leader is a bit calmer than his predecessor so they could push and push. Now Iran reacts to remind Israel that their actions have consequences. Israel’.

Are you seriously saying Israel shouldn’t have taken out Nasrallah, a terrorist leader who has both attacked Israel and the West?

And that the Iranian regime has every right to lob 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in response?

I must admit I find that astonishing.

I think they are referring to the UN 1947 Partition plan that was accepted by the British on behalf of Palestinians and by the American Zionist Movement on behalf of all Jewish Palestinians.

All existing groups within the Mandate were not part of the discussion, the Balfour memo mentions deliberately excluding Palestinians from the negotiations at the UN to draw lines on the map for an ‘Arab State’ and a ‘Jewish state’ (these were their labels).

Unsurprisingly, neither affected party in the Palestine Mandate agreed with this partition being imposed on them.

Sleepwalking? Is that how you explain bombing, bulldozing, killing tens of thousands, displacing millions of people?

I love how you're twisting the blame now to Iran, because they fired a few warning shots at military targets

It was really was just a question. No body seems to be talking about what happens after this awful conflict.

@Icanthinkformyselfthanks used the word succumb, but what does that mean? It could mean very different things to different people.

@Newbutoldfather suggests we support Israel because they are a democracy? Why? We support many countries that are not democracies.

Is Israel really in an existential situation? No, I think that's massive hyperbole. Is Gaza in an existential situation? Yes. The West Bank? It looks too late TBH.

Did I say anything about nasrallah? If you're going to respond to me, please respond to my actual words.

This is so very naieve.

I love how you're twisting the blame now to Iran

Are you following the situation with Iran’s nuclear capability?

I can’t think of anyone in the west that would be mad enough to welcome that. Think through the complexities and outcomes.

Perhaps you missed the updates this morning.

'A few warning shots'? Dozens of ballistic missiles are not a few warning shots. Give your head a wobble.

The Israeli leader is not calm, and he is forced this way and that by the ultra right wing ministers in his government. That is hugely contributing to the failure to find a settlement, and to changing his mind about it when one is negotiated. That lot will accept nothing less than the permanent annexation of the West Bank, as discussed again today in the Guardian.

What do you think the intent of the missiles was? Iran knew full well that Israel would destroy most of not all the missiles. If firing the missiles had little military significance why would Iran fire them?

To wear Israel down psychologically, to degrade their defensive capabilities and to rally regionsl support - look like they are calling the shots. Do you know how much it costs to intercept a missile each time? Some do get through. These are not a few 'warning shots'.

‘Warning shots’ is an odd minimisation

But also even more concerning to see these posts regarding Iran as their nuclear capabilities are being discussed

Is there support for Iran on here?

@Daftasabroom , in this instance it means that the Arabs achieve their aim of the annihilation of the state of Israel.

😂 stop trying to twist my words please.

Stating why I believe Iran has done something is not any kind of indication that I support them.