To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

[Gunnersforthecup]

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

I do think the ground invasion sealed their fate if they were not already dead, and as far as Israel knew and said it was acting at the time, Israel believed they were still alive.

There is also zero evidence they were not alive from July 12th to August 14th, 2006.

They were kidnapped the morning of July 12th, 2006 and probably killed at any of these points:

• less than 12 hours later during the July 12th massive Israeli bombardment that claimed the lives of hundreds of civilians while destroying all of Hezbollah’s long range rocket capabilities and much of Hezbollah’s elite militia forces. Or

• in the run up or during the 22nd July ground invasion of Lebanon by IDF. Or
• after the cessation of hostilities on 14th August when their usefulness to Hezbollah as live hostages was clearly surplus to requirement as Hezbollah had gotten what they wanted.

If there had been negotiations from the start, instead of massive aerial bombardment of southern Lebanon and then a failed ground invasion, it is my belief that these two soldiers might have lived and been exchanged in a prisoner swap.

As it is, Israel believed they were alive at least until the 14th of August 2006, and chose their actions despite knowing it could mean their deaths either by friendly fire or at the hands of their murderous captors. Israel knew what Hezbollah was.

It wasn’t until months after the ground invasion & cessation of hostilities in August that doubt set in as no proof of life had been received from Hezbollah.

The bodies were not repatriated to Israel until July 2008. There was and still is no forensic technology or way of pinpointing the time of death on a 2yr old refrigerated corpse to early July, late July, or early August. So we don’t know exactly when they died, and there is no way Hezbollah is going to tell the truth given they maliciously lied up to the last second Israeli officials saw the plane door open and saw two black coffins instead of two live Israelis.

This is not to say the deaths are Israel’s fault, that lies fully with Hezbollah, but to point out that the Israeli government’s Machiavellian choice knowingly significantly reduced their chances of survival.

As I said before, a ceasefire and negotiations has been proven over and over again to be the best choice that has the highest probability to get live hostages back.

Second best is special ops type raid to rescue hostages.

While there are currently no hostages in Lebanon with Hezbollah, we are seeing this rule proven once again with the hostages in Gaza.

I mean, they would have looked at the other soldiers who were murdered by Hezbollah that same day and seen the injuries they died from and then compared those to the injuries on the repatriated murdered hostage bodies and seen they had the same injuries. That would mean the most obvious and likely conclusion would be that they died in the same way and at the same time.

Your attempts at trying to cast doubt on this have been noted though. It's definitely an...interesting take on it all. One that I assume most others can also see right through.

I'm done talking about this. You've said you blame Hezbollah for their murder so let's just leave it at that.

Why are you using the population of Iran compared to Israel?

The conflict is currently between Israel and Hezbollah who control the southern half of Lebanon.

Being generous by counting all of Lebanon,
it is then Israel pop 9.3m vs Lebanon pop 9m
https://countrymeters.info/en/Israel

https://countrymeters.info/en/Lebanon

If Israel wants to survive, it cannot afford to be ‘proportionate’.
I disagree. I think if Israel wants to survive, it absolutely should be proportionate and transparently adhere to international humanitarian laws.

I think Israel’s current path is immensely self-destructive. As a government, their international credibility and status is in tatters. Their leaders may be international fugitives wanted for war crimes in a matter of weeks. The US is now only supporting them clandestinely- which doesn’t bode well if you know your history of US interference and regime toppling around the world, including the Middle East.

They have video footage of them being kidnapped alive from their jeep.

Even in 2011, when some Hezbollah twat was claiming in a memoir that they’d been killed by the IDF bombing campaign, Israeli officials decried that as nonsense and maintained they had been captured alive but wounded and that we’d never been told how they died.

My interesting take is straight from Ynet, a reputable Israeli news source.

Yes, I blame Hezbollah for their deaths. Nasrallah also led Hezbollah then, so their deaths were on his hands too. It is good he is dead.

My objection on the Lebanon bombing that killed Nasrallah was to levelling residential buildings full of innocent civilians with 85 bunker buster bombs just to get to Nasrallah.

I am not someone who thinks the end justifies the means. Not just from an ethical standpoint, which some might call that a luxury, but also from a purely practical standpoint.

The bombing killed one terrorist leader & his entourage of lackeys, but it has also just created thousands of angry, vengeful civilians who will quickly swell the ranks of Hezbollah, and provide many future leaders & lackeys. Hezbollah also has a charitable wing, and they will be busy using Iranian money to garner sympathy and goodwill and votes for Hezbollah. I expect that support for them among the Lebanese will go up. Which is a concern 🙁 looking long term for myself and anyone who wants Israel to see its 100th birthday.

All people involved don't become vengeful and turn to terrorism.

Many victims of terrorists or victims of war or injustice don't quickly become terrorists themselves.

Eg

The families of the victims of 9/11 haven't all gone out and joined organisations to kill. Victims of various wars or terrorism don't just turn to terrorism themselves. Maybe you do the people of Lebanon am injustice with that claim.

That is true, but a certain % do and the more you have women and children killed in their homes, the higher that % goes.

Might want to read some of the CIA studies done on the Taliban and the impact of say, when the US bombed a few Afghan weddings.

Some did actually join White Power type organisations and went around killing American Muslims in the aftermath of 9/11. Have a look at the hate crime statistics from then.

Have you seen the documentary State of Rage? Highly recommend as much as the Oct 7th one.
Here is a review on it:
https://apple.news/AKYXdwrWySAGGxLTQkNZa5g

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/pmo-idf-deny-israeli-bombs-killed-regev-goldwasser

I wonder why people keep suggesting that Israel is creating more terrorists in Lebanon and Gaza but no one is worried about Nova survivors turning to terrorism? Israel has put up with terror attacks for decades without the victims turning to terrorism. Rabbi Dee hasn't turned to terrorism. Neither have the remaining Applebaums.

I am worried actually.
The surge in settler violence in the West Banks is irrefutably linked to Oct 7th.
These kinds of atrocities will radicalise not just a % of survivors but also a % of the family members of victims- especially children. So the bow wave is usually years and years down the line from now.

Seriously, Humdingeryoo watch the State of Rage documentary too and you will see how personal loss impacts at the family level.

I wonder why people keep suggesting that Israel is creating more terrorists in Lebanon and Gaza

We have likely read some of the many studies done on how terrorists are created and lessons learned from the twenty years of the GWOT.

Genuinely hilarious that you have only quoted half the sentence and not the other half which questions why only one side appears to be at risk from becoming terrorists.

Terrorists are generally created by parents who raise their kids to be terrorists. Like the parents who sent their young son into Israel on October 7th so he could assist in the kidnapping of an Israeli child.

As it's been a good few years now since the suicide bomb that killed the Applebaums - how many of their family members have turned to terrorists?

By the way, weren't Hezbollah the last ones known to have Ron Arad? I thought you said earlier that they don't have any more hostages?

I really don't need any lessons from you in how personal loss from terrorism affects family. Thanks though.

https://www.nbcnews.com/video/video-shows-hamas-militants-kidnapping-12-year-old-boy-194738245670

The end of this video. A child running past with some kind of massive rifle or gun, whatever it is, while another child is being taken hostage.

Strange isn't it.

It almost as victims are different ie families of victims of 7th October aren't considered likely to become terrorists but victims of the conflict between either Israel and Gaza or Israel and Hezbollah will automatically convert in numbers to terrorism. Why is that?

Yes, I’ve noticed that too.

Indeed. So why not then.

So all those IDF soldiers who film themselves blowing up buildings and dedicating it to family members. Who loot and make a disgrace of themselves, are they not radicalised? Some of them have the scary crazy look in their eyes

They don't all seem 100% with it

Those soldiers who post angry videos about how they are going to get revenge and turn Gaza into a carpark. Are they not radicalised? Or what would you call that?

There is tons and tons of research as to why terrorists become terrorists. It is complex and has a number of different contributing factors. I wouldn't think victims of the October 7th terrorist attack are likely to become terrorists because they will have a lot of protective factors in place that will ensure they don't, such as stable home, access to trauma informed psychological support and so on. Does this mean they won't be deeply effected by the trauma? No but it means they are less vulnerable to being radicalised. Does any of this excuse terrorists? Of course not but it does help to better understand why so there can be better preventative measures and deradicalisation programmes in place. I know someone working on one in Germany.

It shouldn't be hard to understand how people living in Gaza under blockade and occupation for decades and now having endured a year of annihilation could easily be radicalised.

British soldiers murdered 14 people on Bloody Sunday in Derry and basically created the modern IRA. Those people had been living as second class citizens in their homeland too, though obviously the levels of oppression and brutalisation were much less extreme when compared to what modern day Gazans have to endure.

The assassination of Nasrallah involved the use of deep penetration bunker bombs to destroy six apartment blocks. Hundreds, possibly thousands of people were killed in one of Israels "surgical" strikes.
Western media follows tha Israeli narrative that they targeted a hezbollah stronghold that had been cynically placed in a residential area. It was were he lived??

It was where he lived??

You make it sound as if the fact that he lived there was just an unfortunate coincidence and not a deliberate choice.
Why would the leader of a prescribed terror organisation choose to live (and build a bunker) amongst civilians?

In a bunker several metres below the apartment block apparently.

There has been some awful faux naivety (I choose that instead of wilful ignorance) around Hamas, Hezbollah and what they stand for and how they operate. There's also some really gullible individuals in society who fall for easy to swallow propaganda dumbed down for today's tiktok society.