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Conflict in the Middle East

To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

381 replies

Gunnersforthecup · 28/09/2024 09:44

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking | John Jenkins

Netanyahu has his own reasons for prolonging the conflict, but many Israelis still want to see Hamas and Hezbollah neutralised, says former British diplomat Sir John Jenkins

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

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Littlebluetruck · 03/10/2024 23:54

Golden407 · 03/10/2024 23:37

Well, we didn't overthrow a German government and install a proxy prior to the Nazis taking over, so I don't think it's comparable at all.
The people you know, I respect their view and agree with it to an extent but they're not representative of the peoplr who haven't sought to leave the country. I mean if you ask Edward Snowden for his opinion on the US government you won't get a representative picture.

Well, we didn't overthrow a German government and install a proxy prior to the Nazis taking over, so I don't think it's comparable at all.

Yeah, but we kind of did do that.

We brought about the abdication of King Wilhelm II and replaced him with the Weimar Republic. And we all know what happened next.

Of course, it’s more complex and multifaceted than that, but similar nonetheless.

The people you know, I respect their view and agree with it to an extent but they're not representative of the peoplr who haven't sought to leave the country.

I did put in a disclaimer that the people I knew lived in the west, for this reason.

mouthpipette · 04/10/2024 03:05

@inamarina who wrote like this, whilst my responses appear like this.

Okay, so I did go back and reread what you said on the other thread.
So it’s the Hamas rockets that you’ve described as “really of no consequence” and causing “very few fatalities”. Exactly. Hamas and Hezbollah are two very different military identities. They are each armed very differently.

You then said Hezbollah did possess more sophisticated ballistic missiles, but they wouldn’t use them unless attacked. I did

You also said “Remember it is Israel that has escalated the situation on its northern border, not Hezbollah.” You've now started quoting additional material, but yes, I did say that.
That does make it sound as if you thought Israel attacked Hezbollah first and not the other way round. No it doesn't. It makes no mention of who started it. It only sounds like that if you can't tell the difference between the words escalation and initiation.

You also seem to regard the rockets Hezbollah have been firing at Israel since last October 8th as of little consequence, because apparently they somehow don’t count? How do you glean that ?
So how exactly is what I said in my previous post wildly inaccurate? You claimed that I'd said Hezbollah rockets were of no consequence, when I hadn't.

Rockets and ballistic missiles and cruise missiles are Hezbollah's greatest threat. They have many tens of thousands of them. The doomsday weapon with which they threaten Israel, is a massive salvo. Iron dome, David's sling and Arrow 2/3 can only cope with so much at any one time. Iron dome is a battery that needs time to reload. I guess that Iran's April reprisal of a swarm of missiles and drones and rockets, was a way to see just how Israel's defences would react to multiple threats.

But Hezbollah knows that if it were it to fire off a barrage of thousands, all hell would rain down with Israel's retaliation and at the moment neither Israel nor Hezbollah want that scenario. Things haven't got that bad, yet.

Both sides have been working under containment, and although measured it has slowly been ratcheting up, and according to Mehdi Hasan, over 80% of the ordinance fired across that border has been fired by Israel.

Then came the assassinations and the pagers etc. and its now up to a new level.

Apparently Nasrallah and Netanyahu had both agreed to a ceasefire about ten days before he was killed.

Humdingerydoo · 04/10/2024 08:51

mouthpipette · 03/10/2024 17:41

Inamarina wrote
"Someone was saying the other day (not quite sure whether on this thread or a different one) that the rockets Hezbollah have been firing at Israel since last October were of not much consequence, basically nothing to see here. "

I think that you're referring to me. But what you stated above is a wildly inaccurate description of what I wrote. Go back and reread my message and see how you're mistaken.

If you want your posts to have any credibility, please confine yourself to reporting faithfully what people write.

Yes, in her defence it wasn't Hezbollah's rockets that are apparently inconsequential, it was Hamas' rockets that were deemed inconsequential and more of an annoyance to Israel. That's not a direct quote, but I am using the same words they used. With regards to Hezbollah it was something about how they haven't been firing any of their more sophisticated rockets.

@inamarina basically, you did a good job in reporting this person's comments regardless of what they're now claiming.

Humdingerydoo · 04/10/2024 08:54

Humdingerydoo · 04/10/2024 08:51

Yes, in her defence it wasn't Hezbollah's rockets that are apparently inconsequential, it was Hamas' rockets that were deemed inconsequential and more of an annoyance to Israel. That's not a direct quote, but I am using the same words they used. With regards to Hezbollah it was something about how they haven't been firing any of their more sophisticated rockets.

@inamarina basically, you did a good job in reporting this person's comments regardless of what they're now claiming.

Sorry @inamarina , I missed that you'd already responded exactly the same but better 🤦🏻‍♀️

inamarina · 04/10/2024 09:31

Humdingerydoo · 04/10/2024 08:54

Sorry @inamarina , I missed that you'd already responded exactly the same but better 🤦🏻‍♀️

No problem!
I didn’t even mention that particular poster in my original comment.
I was just saying how some people on here seem to be determined to minimise anything Hamas or Hezbollah are doing, because that’s something I’ve noticed.
I find that attitude a bit strange, since I wouldn’t describe any rockets fired at anyone, whether sophisticated or not, as "inconsequential".

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