To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

[Gunnersforthecup]

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

@Newbutoldfather the last thing anyone wants is another nuclear power, but why should Iran be any more of an issue than Israel?

I'd agree with @Golden407 we must accept the new reality and that means a much smaller role for the West and a much less belligerent attitude from Israel.

Do you trust Iran with nuclear capability?

Can you say why you do

That's not what I got from the post. To me they're suggesting that they don't trust any nation with nuclear capability which I would agree with.

Perhaps pp can answer

They are direct questions on Iran

I'm sure they can and will, I was just suggesting a different interpretation of the post.

Can you please answer my question about whether you're comfortable with Israel having nuclear capability? If so, given the instability in the region and the recklessness shown by Israel, along with committing probable war crimes and targeting innocent civilians, why is it OK for Israel and not Iran?

Inamarina wrote
"Someone was saying the other day (not quite sure whether on this thread or a different one) that the rockets Hezbollah have been firing at Israel since last October were of not much consequence, basically nothing to see here. "

I think that you're referring to me. But what you stated above is a wildly inaccurate description of what I wrote. Go back and reread my message and see how you're mistaken.

If you want your posts to have any credibility, please confine yourself to reporting faithfully what people write.

@Daftasabroom @HelenHen Iran having nuclear capbility is an entirely different proposition to Israel. Its a theocraric dictstorship that practices sharia with none of the normal rights & protections that a functioning society enjoys. It is 153rd in the Economist democracy index compared to Israel which is 30th. So Israel is as we know flawed but Iran is an entirely different order. It clearly has longstanding ambitions to destabilise the region and build a network of armed groups against Israel which it seeks to eradicate and kill all Jews. Israel has a conflict with the Palestinians but it doesnt have wider ambitions in the region in the sense that Iran does - you might not agree with them but its actions are essentially defensive. Iran is also an ally of Russia & China. Im totally clear whose values I align with and they are not Iran, Russia and China's. I'd rather nobody had nuclear weapons but I sure as hell know that Iran having them is a whole different issue to Israel having them

@HelenHen ,

‘Can you please answer my question about whether you're comfortable with Israel having nuclear capability? If so, given the instability in the region and the recklessness shown by Israel, along with committing probable war crimes and targeting innocent civilians, why is it OK for Israel and not Iran?’

I am not comfortable with nukes, but you can’t put the genie back in the bottle.

But Israel and Iran just aren’t comparable in any objective sense. Israel have had nukes for decades now and never once threatened to use them. They are also a democracy as opposed to Iran, albeit a flawed one. Finally, Israel are our ally and Iran are our declared enemy, who regard the U.S and her allies (that would include the U.K) as ‘Satan’.

https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel

https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2024

The above gives Israel a score of 74/100 and Iran 11/100. Anyone who makes a false equivalence between Israel and Iran is clearly not being objective.

The idea that we should be just as happy with our enemy having nukes as our friend is a perverse one.

@SharonEllis ,

Looks like we cross-posted nearly identical posts!

Great minds! Its clearly ludicrous to see any equivalence between Israel and Iran, either as societies or in terms of geo politics.

I agree.

Imagine living in the west and yet thinking it ok to wave a hamas flag, cheer on the Houthis or clap for hezbollah. Crazy.

Yes, I’m confortable with Israel having nuclear weapons.

Israel have had them a long time. They are clearly not going to use them. Like every other country in possession of nuclear weapons.

If so, given the instability in the region and the recklessness shown by Israel, along with committing probable war crimes and targeting innocent civilians, why is it OK for Israel and not Iran?

Don’t be so ridiculous. Many nuclear powers have been reckless in war and have committed war crimes. That doesn’t mean they considered using a nuclear weapon.

You might as well ask why it is okay for the UK to have nuclear weapons and not Germany?

The answer is: no one else in the world needs nuclear weapons. We should be working towards elimating nuclear weapons from the world, not creating more nuclear powers.

Humanity wouldn’t survive a nuclear war so no one is seeking to instigate one.

Iran doesn’t need a nuclear weapon as no one is ever going to launch a nuclear attack on it. So why would they want one? Many countries who have the capabilities to produce nuclear weapons, have agreed not to.

why is it OK for Israel and not Iran?

I can’t believe you would even ask this. I’ve been reading the threads on this board for almost a year. We are now at the point where people have lost rationality to the extent they are asking why isn’t it fair that more countries don’t have nuclear weapons.

Absolutely crazy.

@EasternStandard @HelenHen @Dulra I don't trust Iran with a nuclear weapon any more or less than I do Israel.

I also cannot understand why a theocracy would be any more dangerous than the West and/or Israel. I think it's just dogma.

Really? You cant be serious.

Okay, so I did go back and reread what you said on the other thread.

So it’s the Hamas rockets that you’ve described as “really of no consequence” and causing “very few fatalities”.

You then said Hezbollah did possess more sophisticated ballistic missiles, but they wouldn’t use them unless attacked.

You also said “Remember it is Israel that has escalated the situation on its northern border, not Hezbollah.”

That does make it sound as if you thought Israel attacked Hezbollah first and not the other way round.

You also seem to regard the rockets Hezbollah have been firing at Israel since last October 8th as of little consequence, because apparently they somehow don’t count?

So how exactly is what I said in my previous post wildly inaccurate?

@SharonEllis completely serious, nobody has given any kind of reason that doesn't equally apply to Israel.

And anyone who thinks Western enforced regime change is a good idea needs to show the last time it had a lasting peaceful outcome for ALL.

The posts below give reasons.

I find it very concerning. This kind of view within the west seems to mistakenly overlook threats

@EasternStandard I agree with your statements to and extent but nuclear weapons are of undoubted strategic value if your sworn enemy also has them.

What do you really think a good long-term solution would be, one that would as fair as possible to all sides?

Israel is not a theocratic dictatorship. That is not a minor point. Khamenei has been in charge for over 30 years - as supreme leader you have an aging religious cleric responsible for the judiciary government, military, press and the use of nuclear weapons. Its a lifetime appointment with no democratic accountability whatsoever and the added dimension of religious fervour which underpins the brutal suppression of women. None of that has any parallel in Israel.
I didnt mention regime change and I dont advocate armed intervention. I know my Iranian and Syrian refugee friends would very much like global isolation & pressure on Iran to lead to its implosion and liberation of its people - there is a lot of support for Israel among Iranians.

Well I'd certainly argue that Israel has brutally suppressed the women of Gaza and the West Bank at least as much as Iran has suppressed the women of its population.
I lived in Tehran for almost a year, the people, on the whole, I found to be incredibly friendly and welcoming, whilst they are very aware of the shortcomings of it's leadership they, on the whole, absolutely despise Israel and the West.
Look at what the West has done to the country, operation Ajax anyone? Over throwing a Democratically elected secular government to install a western puppet purely to serve the economic interests of the western elite. Then when they overthrew the puppet government paying Saddam Hussein to launch a proxy war against Iran costing how many lives? Two, three million?
Is it any wonder they hate us? Maybe the West should learn its lesson and stay out of other people's affairs, won't hold my breath.
By the way I do think that the Iranian regime is abhorrent but it's our creation.

Operation Ajax was in 1953.....to say the Iranian regime is 'our creation' stretches reason to breaking point.

Look at what the West has done to the country, operation Ajax anyone?

By the way I do think that the Iranian regime is abhorrent but it's our creation.

By the same logic we also created the Nazi’s.

Treaty of Versailles, anyone?

But I don’t see anyone bending over backwards to take responsibility for the atrocities they carried out.

Funny that.

whilst they are very aware of the shortcomings of it's leadership they, on the whole, absolutely despise Israel and the West.

That isn’t my experience at all but the people I know live in the west and, as ever, are not one homogeneous group.

Well, we didn't overthrow a German government and install a proxy prior to the Nazis taking over, so I don't think it's comparable at all.
The people you know, I respect their view and agree with it to an extent but they're not representative of the peoplr who haven't sought to leave the country. I mean if you ask Edward Snowden for his opinion on the US government you won't get a representative picture.