To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

[Gunnersforthecup]

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

The way some posters try to minimise the actions of Israel’s opponents is astonishing.
Someone was saying the other day (not quite sure whether on this thread or a different one) that the rockets Hezbollah have been firing at Israel since last October were of not much consequence, basically nothing to see here.

It’s a question and I’m not sure why you are crying laughing it’s not an amusing topic

I’m reading your posts and wondering if you do, as the words are minimising and you’ve missed Iran’s nuclear capacity

But for clarification do you find the latter concerning?

You didn’t just state why you believe Iran fired those rockets.
You said “they fired a few warning shots”. I agree with pp that that’s an odd minimisation.

I think the continued escalation is psychologically damaging to everyone in the region, I don't think Israelis are in a unique position in that respect.

I've no doubt Iranian military intelligence will have paid very close attention to the Israeli response. The general consensus in the media is that Iran doesn't have the resources to beat Israel in a war of attrition.

to rally regional support - look like they are calling the shots by far the most likely. I think the actions of both Netanyahu and the Iranian military are as much for internal effect as they are external.

Arabs achieve their aim of the annihilation of the state of Israel.
Arabs? All Arabs? or is it better if you were a bit more specific here rather than accuse a whole group of people of something

But reading that conversation thread you are very clearly minimising the threat of Iran to Israel and the wider region. Which is not a mainstream position - pretty much everyone agrees Iran is the major destabilising force in the region through its proxies and its sponsoring of extreme Islamism at home and abroad.

@SharonEllis ,

‘To wear Israel down psychologically, to degrade their defensive capabilities and to rally regionsl support - look like they are calling the shots. Do you know how much it costs to intercept a missile each time? Some do get through. These are not a few 'warning shots'.’

I don’t actually agree with the above.

I think Iran is in a desperate situation. They have built their entire relevance as battling the ‘Great Satan’ (the U.S) and the ‘Little Satan’ (Israel). Like a lot of regimes who are offering little hope to their own people, they focus on an external ‘enemy’.

So they built up their proxies, so they weren’t attacked themselves. Now Israel is defeating their proxies, they are painfully exposed. So they either appear weak and do nothing or fully attack Israel, risking their own annihilation. Strangely, like a lot of ‘religious’ leaders, the mullahs don’t like the thought of their own death, so they opted for a pathetic compromise, lobbing a couple of hundred missiles at Israel, apparently with pre warning, knowing they would do little damage.

I think Iran looks very weak. I hope Israel goes for their nukes and the whole regime implodes. I do find it amazing, on a mainly female site, how many women favour religious misogynistic regimes over a pluralistic regime like Israel.

Ultimately, there is no reason for Iran to dislike Israel. They were one of the first countries to recognise her and had good relations until 1979.

I agree with all of that.

So anything other than the annihilation of Israel would not be "succumbing".

Israel and the Palestinians are both going to have to accept that a two state solution is the only viable solution and this means concessions on both sides.

@Daftasabroom ,

’Israel and the Palestinians are both going to have to accept that a two state solution is the only viable solution and this means concessions on both sides.’

Totally agree with that.

But it won’t happen while there is a hot war going on or while Iran is determined to keep attacking Israel via its proxies, or by itself.

I think Iran needs forced regime change, ideally from within, but from without if necessary. They are a very malign presence, especially as they are now trying to ally with Russia against the west.

I don't think any country should have nuclear capabilities... so yes, I find Iran as concerning as I find Israel when it comes to nuclear capabilities.

I agree with your summary of why Iran did what it did.

However, enough with the feminist bs please. Israel is not the saviour of Iranian women so stop painting it as such.

And to say that women 'SHOULD' support a specific side because they're women is about as anti-feminist as you can get. I see a lot of talk here about the anti-war women as if they're idiots and it's very patronising. It also doesn't suggest to me that the other side is much more pro-women

@Newbutoldfather I think Iran needs forced regime change, ideally from within, but from without if necessary.

I'm full on goldfish gawping here.

Can you name one forced regime change by an external power that has no sovereign interest that has ended in any kind of lasting meaningful peace with any kind of equality for all parties?

I don't see Iran as being desperate.

To me it appears that Iran are in a strong position. They have responded to Israeli aggression - specifically the land invasion of Lebanon - in a way that may go some way to appeasing their proxies in the region. But as was always likely they haven't actually dealt much of a blow to Israel.

Iran could claim, with some legitimacy, that any substantial blow from Israel would be disproportional.

The ball is now very much in Israel's court, do they retaliate in-kind - something flashy but of little significant material damage? Or do they deal some kind of serious injury to Iran?

To me it appears that Iran are in a strong position

And as someone in the west does this claim of a strong position concern you at all?

Are you hoping they are strong or can you see the threat?

@EasternStandard of course it concerns me but to be honest the Israelis concern me more.

The Iranians to date have kept Israel at arms length via their proxies and been reluctant to escalate directly, the Israelis on the other hand have jumped on almost every opportunity to lash out. However the Israeli response to True Promise 1 was relatively measured so perhaps they don't have the ambition to go head to head, one v one with Iran isn't that strong after all? Let's hope not.

Even with the current talk of Iranian nuclear capability?

I’m not sure if people heard commentary on the radio this morning but this sounds highly concerning

The US response is don’t strike but where does that put Iran in a few months and what is the threat?

How do you feel about Israeli nuclear capability?

They havent needed to escalate directly. Tbey have had Hamas and Hezbollah to do it for them.

I agree with your analysis of Iran, I think. I would say that, if you are a feminist, the situation for women in Gaza and now Lebanon is pretty dire, and that is mainly due to Israel's attacks. Imagine giving birth in Gaza right now. You are right that the regime there and in other Middle East countries do suppress women- but their situation is clearly not improved by being bombed, starved and shot. If you care about children, as many mothers and therefore women do, the situation is really much worse than before being attacked also.

Quite so, and I suspect they may be content to keep it that way.

No one is mentioning the Saudis, they are a long time ally of the West, and were about to restart relations with Israel up until the 7/11 atrocity. Iran is obviously feeling threatened by relationships between the US/West, Israel and the Saudis.

Its well understood thst this was one of the motivations for October 7 and Iran's wider destabilisation on the region and been mentioned many times.

@Daftasabroom ,

‘To me it appears that Iran are in a strong position. They have responded to Israeli aggression - specifically the land invasion of Lebanon - in a way that may go some way to appeasing their proxies in the region. But as was always likely they haven't actually dealt much of a blow to Israel.’

I think you have a strange idea of what a strong position looks like. They had to do something to appease their proxies, as you said. But what they did didn’t hurt Israel, but at the same time, Iran have already had their warning and the U.S have given Israel the go ahead to strike a lot harder, either at their air force/missiles or their nukes.

So, Iran are going to be hit substantially.

‘Iran could claim, with some legitimacy, that any substantial blow from Israel would be disproportional.’

I am not sure they could claim it with any legitimacy but, either way, it doesn’t matter. The U.S will support Israel and their few allies aren’t prepared to risk any damage over Iran. Russia, in particular, is otherwise occupied.

The thing is that no one, other than Iran, and possibly Russia, wants to see Iran becoming a nuclear power and, at some point, that means removing their capacity.

So let’s have a look domestically. Their GDP per capita is under usd 5,000 and it is declining. Last year they had 40% inflation. This is an oil rich nation with a rich tradition of culture. It could be a success story and part of the global community, but instead has chosen to be the global headquarters for Islamist terror.

I am not sure quite why you think Iran is in a strong position?!

I think the problem faced by the US and the wider West is the relative decline in power they have suffered over the last two decades or so. This has been highlighted by the Russo-Ukraine war. The full weight of US/Western sanctions are in force and yet Russia is still outproducing the entirety of Nato in munitions. Hundreds of billions in military aid have failed to see Ukraine claim victory. Twenty years this wouldn't have been the case.
Prior to 2022 Iran was the most sanctioned nation on earth it had been for years and yet no change in their position. I honestly don't think sanctions in any form now can be considered an effective measure.
As for military strikes the assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the resulting Iranian attack on the Al Assad airbase highlighted American vulnerability in the middle East, remember the Americans did nothing to respond, twenty years ago that absolutely would not have gone unanswered. The Americans have dozens of bases within strike range of Iran and they're painfully aware of how exposed they are.
Short of all out invasion and occupation there's no long term way of preventing Iran gaining nuclear weapons. I think the way the West and Israel can negotiate this is with a fresh strategic approach that takes account of the new reality.
As for the mysogynistic regime, well that's endemic to the region so any replacement would likely be the same.