The grown-ups have left the building - Trump thread #136

[Spandauer]

As we descend into 4 years of madness...

(thanks @Jaichangecentfoisdenom and* *@AcrossthePond55 for the suggestions)

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5200273-hands-across-the-water-trump-thread-135

"If anything happens to Trump in the next 4 years, Vance gets to be President and then the chance at another term."

It depends:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

ie, LBJ served out JFK's remaining term (~15 mos), was elected in 1964, was eligible to run again in 1968 but declined due to his unpopular actions during the VN War.

If SCROTUS dies in/is removed from office after two years of this term, Vance could be elected twice more.

Kinda sends chills up your spine, doesn't it?

@AcrossthePond55 Yes I'd forgotten the half term rules.
Its funny how archaic a lot of US electoral rules are

• the insanely long campaigns (UK is six weeks by law)
• the mad fundraising rules (that only benefit media companies)
• the 11 weeks lame duck period (most countries its immediate)
• the senate approval of cabinet posts because they are not people who have been elected
• the fact that criminals can stand for election, but not vote

even Republicans are saying, this could go sideways because the people that have been nominated to the cabinet are being called the island of misfit toys in the Wall Street Journal

This is perfect.

Also, JD Vance. He’s been described as a shape-shifter. Is there a guarantee that he won’t shift again? He seems to do it quite drastically.

Also, JD Vance. He’s been described as a shape-shifter. Is there a guarantee that he won’t shift again? He seems to do it quite drastically.

I expect the shifting will continue - like Trump, Vance's no.1 priority is himself so he'll be testing the wind direction on a daily if not hourly basis.

I expect that Vance will become whatever he needs to be elected in 2028.

This next 4 years is just the warm up for him. He's going to spend them sending out 'feelers' and sniffing the air. If he senses that turning on Trump will get him elected, he'll spin so fast that Trump won't know what hit him.

With bells on.

Vance is young enough to give zero shits about the older MAGAS
they will be on zimmer frames by the time he finishes his second term

Has anyone here read Hillbilly Elegy? I haven’t myself but have heard a lot of people say it’s a good read (I know there also a Netflix film).

Being a chameleon is more and more common in politics now, I listened to the TRIP Leading interview this week with Mhairi Black (who I don’t have much time for) but she talked about Alex Salmond and Keir Starmer being of a similar ilk in that they’d say whatever they thought people wanted them to say to get elected - Vance would fall in the same group.

If SCROTUS dies in/is removed from office after two years of this term, Vance could be elected twice more

That was my first thought too. As to whether JDV can achieve that; I think not as a huge amount of the hysteria around Trump and his god like aura (wtaf) cannot necessarily be transferred? Maybe that’s wishful thinking.

We are beyond doubt into who knows what the fuck is going to happen in the next 4 years though.

I think Vance’s background, upbringing and various careers makes him far more interesting and unpredictable than most. I could even see him rejecting Trump/MAGA/the GOP and becoming a born-again old style leftwinger. But who knows? Certainly, not me.

Breaking WaPo: Trump plans to fire the entire team that worked with special counsel Jack Smith to pursue the two federal prosecutions against Trump — including career attorneys typically protected from political retribution

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/11/22/trump-jack-smith-prosecutors-firing-justice-department-investigation/

@DuncinToffee This doesn't surprise me at all. Just the beginning of Trump's own 'Nacht du langen Messer'.

@Lonelycrab I agree, JDV doesn't have the 'personal cult' that SCROTUS' 'celebrity status' has given him. I think if Trump appoints him his 'anointed successor' then the MAGA crowd will, if not change their actual allegiance, vote for him because SCROTUS told them too.

Although I can't see SCROTUS ever being able to step out of the limelight long enough to 'anoint' anybody. Not even one of his kids.

I cannot imagine Trump handing over to anyone whoever they are. He never works for the good of the country, the good of the party, only for his self. He has to feed his ego relentlessly, to feel the power, to be in charge, to fire and hire...he is power drunk.
I honestly don't think he would stand aside for anyone... but what do I know

Just the beginning of Trump's own 'Nacht du langen Messer'.

For the analogy to make sense, Trump would have to be taking out his own supporters - the people who got him where he is. Which I can see happening - so save it for then ? If just for the image of a couple of "special agents" turning up at MTGs with a pistol.

"Arrested !", said Trump.

I think this is spot on.

Let's see what the man with the telescope thinks ....

Votes are still being counted but Trump’s vote share is now at 49.9%

Looks like his margin over Harris will be around 1.5%- the third smallest winning margin since 1888.

Trump’s win was solid in the popular vote and electoral college. But it was not a landslide and it was not overwhelming.

So much more like the polls were predicting

and not a hugely disastrous performance from Harris/Democrats after all - but who will remember it this way

The problem with trying to peddle the idea that Trump won by a landslide is that it will then confuse the less capable of his supporters when the whole apparatus of government doesn't suddenly bow to his will.

This is all part of a much wider - arguably global - problem of defining what exactly democracy, "democracy" or democracy is (yet again). As we discovered to our immense cost here in the UK. 52% is a majority mathematically. However it didn't translate into 100% of the population suddenly backing Brexit (for example). Thus lighting the slow burning fuse allowing people like that fucker Farage to pretend "the will of the people" was being somehow denied.

The move to get DOJ to investigate 'election fraud' in 2020 is clearly the beginning of the bid for a third term, arguing he was deprived of his rightful second consecutive term the first time.

I wonder if the US could end up treating 2020-2024 like the British 1649-1660 as never having happened ?

We are indeed truly blessed to live in such interesting times.

Also, no-one quite knew exactly what "Brexit" would look like and a lot of that wasn't just down to the UK government but the EU in terms of what deals they were going to make for post-brexit. It wasn't "democratic" for the EU to restrict the right of UK people to travel/work freely in the EU just because we were restricting movement the other way for example. That wasn't strictly speaking what people had voted for, So of course the whole process took a long time to hash out.
But yeah, the 52% vote wasn't an overwhelming majority. It would have made more sense to have a rule in advance saying the it had to be a 2/3 majority for example. But seeing as that rule wasn't made in advance, I think Brexit had to happen because enough people voted for it under the pre-agreed rules.

Also, no-one quite knew exactly what "Brexit" would look like and a lot of that wasn't just down to the UK government but the EU in terms of what deals they were going to make for post-brexit.

The problem is a lot of the lower energy thinkers voting for Brexit simply didn't understand that was the case. They swallowed the utter bollocks of Farage and friends - mistaking grifters grifting for unity.

Speaking of which, back to the US 😀

But yeah, the 52% vote wasn't an overwhelming majority. It would have made more sense to have a rule in advance saying the it had to be a 2/3 majority for example.

Cameron lacked the spine to do that. He also lacked the spine to make the decision binding - which would have meant a shedload more oversight and a very good change the leave campaigns lies would have been exposed.

However that's history now. As is the party that orchestrated it.

I’m not necessarily sure I would call it solid win in the popular vote. 50% of the vote might be solid in a multiparty/multi candidate system.

But if you get 50% in what is essentially a 2 horse race it’s not really overwhelming. Although I do appreciate that 52% is an overwhelming majority so…

But if you get 50% in what is essentially a 2 horse race it’s not really overwhelming.

Especially if you whittle it down to less than 50% by including non voters. Which makes it 33% for Trump 66% against. Very roughly.

(Intriguingly the % of non voters in US and UK is fairly similar).