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Feminism: Sex and gender discussions

Aren't transpeople still a tiny minority?

514 replies

Waheymum · 22/04/2026 06:24

Over about fifteen years, I've noticed growing awareness and concern about transpeople. This may be my age and simply a case of when people I knew started to transition.
What I'm wondering is whether there are statistics further to the last census on how many people are transitioning or have transitioned. This is because I'm pretty sure that men are still a bigger threat to women's safety than transgender (m-f) women are. I'm not saying that no transwoman poses a risk to women, I'm querying whether, statistically, I'm better off crossing the road to avoid a cisgender man or a transgender woman (if, hypothetically, one were on each side of the road).

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dizzydizzydizzy · 22/04/2026 11:40

Helleofabore · 22/04/2026 10:29

We have the figure in proportion to different population estimates. Please be assured that those proportions are nothing resembling the female population offender statistics.

And yes, it is a small base. However, even taking a generous approach, again the figures are not even close to being as low as female offence statistics.

No matter how much some people may which to dismiss what these statistics indicate for example with warnings about how they are a measure of who gets caught, non custodial sentences etc, the pattern remains the same. Male people do not commit sex offences at a rate equal to or lower than the general female population. They remain close to the general male population.

I have even been through ‘non-custodial’ conviction lists and I am confident that there are a good proportion of male people with transgender identities who are not getting custodial sentences after they claim to be vulnerable.

Do you think that male people generally are getting lenient non-custodial sentences more than those with transgender identities? or are you just trying to play devil’s advocate?

I wasn’t trying to suggest anything apart from the potential possible misinterpretations of the data. For example the percentage of transwomen prisoners who are sex offenders is very high but we cannot infer that this means that transwomen are more likely to be sex offenders than men. It may well be true but it may be well not be. We cannot tell.

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 11:33

The point of the question was whether or not it is a minority issue - not a rehashing of the trans v women debate.

And yes I think that we may need to reconsider how we think about risk and how best to allocate money towards that. For example, a lot of the issues raised to do with things like house burglaries etc - realistically by now the met does think it's a non issue a) because it's pretty rare; b) they dont investigate them. In practice, yes people shut their doors in London but actually you are very unlikely to get burgled in your own home ( it is much cheaper and more effective to nick your phone - the profession of house burglars has sort of died out - the most people do is nick your parcels from outside your house - and if you are nothing will happen to you, same with rape or even shop lifting. All those things are pretty much legal now and some of them has also kind of died out. We worry about them because of historical memory rather than reality.

We continue to perceive certain risks due to habit and also fund things as much out of habit as actual risk.

We also tend to worry about things in the news rather than actual risk. It's not scaremongering - it's a harsh look at risk, perceived risk and actual tackling/management of those risks.

gonnarunoutofnames · 22/04/2026 11:30

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 11:25

The UN's definition of the Global South is both well out of date and frankly racist. Guess how I know about it - I write about it.

So you’re fully aware of the UN’s position on single-sex toilets in some areas then. You were just being deliberately obtuse. Good to know.

(‘write about’ rather than do anything, I imagine).

gonnarunoutofnames · 22/04/2026 11:29

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 10:42

The point of the post is whether it's a marginal issue. It is. Whilst one may worry about lots of things at once - I assume that you worry more about the frequent sexual assaults on women in hospitals and old people's homes due to inadequate staffing and will vote accordingly as clearly that is more of a mainstream issue.

The problems of inadequate staffing are not relieved by adding in ‘no guarantee of same-sex care’. The reverse.

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 11:25

gonnarunoutofnames · 22/04/2026 11:23

There’s a UN definition of the Global South if that helps you. ‘Parts of’ would probably be more accurate. The parts that the aforementioned UN campaign for single sex facilities in. Or the ‘not as civilised as us’ parts as you clearly feel they are.

(China’s position as part of the Global South is very much debated, although if you want to cite a country that employs mass detention and forced labour camps against its own people as an example of best practice you do you)

The UN's definition of the Global South is both well out of date and frankly racist. Guess how I know about it - I write about it.

Helleofabore · 22/04/2026 11:25

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 10:45

I live in London and in my local area we definitely have a dearth of public facilities. Toilets in our local park are mixed - I use them without thinking during the day and wouldnt use the in the dark same as with single sex toilets, mainly because I dont think that rapists who are likely to attack me in the dark care about such petty things as toilet signs.

And now we have the 'if a man is going to rape, a sign won't stop him' fallacy argument too. Let's just get rid of any safeguarding attempt.

They are really all coming out on this thread.

Humptydumptysat · 22/04/2026 11:24

but because statistically you are unlikely to come across them

So many things we can stop worrying about or legislating for because as individuals we are unlikely to come across them….

Statistically I am unlikely to get pancreatic cancer so let’s stop funding treatment of it.
Statistically I am unlikely to be killed by a drugged driver so we should do away with drug driving laws.
Statistically my taxes are unlikely to make any difference to the funding of the health service so I should stop paying them.
Statistically I am unlikely to die in a house fire so forget smoke alarms…

gonnarunoutofnames · 22/04/2026 11:23

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 10:34

@gonnarunoutofnames I dont know what you understand by the global south - in China - public facilities are now often individualised. In other parts of the global south - having facilities full stop is a priority. Using a totalising notion of the Global South is just racist.

There’s a UN definition of the Global South if that helps you. ‘Parts of’ would probably be more accurate. The parts that the aforementioned UN campaign for single sex facilities in. Or the ‘not as civilised as us’ parts as you clearly feel they are.

(China’s position as part of the Global South is very much debated, although if you want to cite a country that employs mass detention and forced labour camps against its own people as an example of best practice you do you)

Helleofabore · 22/04/2026 11:18

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 10:18

A couple of dozen people in a northern town is a minority issue.....Now just because you have once seen one - doesnt not make it a minority issue.

What is not a minority issue is that we are all unsafe due to poor policing, we are all more at risk because services have been removed, our kids are less safe because safeguarding and verification and cash has been moved out of social services and children services. Trans people are really not a problem. The fact that we dont have any money to maintain a safe society is however an issue. The fact that people are so worried about transpeople but not the fact that we have unsafe staffing for hospitals that impacts everyone - is essentially pointing to this issue being a moral panic.

We can talk about the question of toilets and changing rooms - but the reality is that there are barely any toilets or changing rooms left anywhere regardless of gender because there is no cash.

We can talk about the use of public toilets - but lets be clear public toilets as in actually public are as rare as unicorns and frankly the discussion as to whether a unicorn is male or female is pretty much a minority issue. How many public facilities are currently left in our cities. How are they maintained? Can anyone find them etc etc etc.

Trans people didnt ruin our public toilets - austerity did

Edited

Now we have the 'there are bigger issues' distraction tactic while not acknowledging that the inclusion of male people in female single sex provisions is a contributor to many of the bigger issues.

"We can talk about the question of toilets and changing rooms - but the reality is that there are barely any toilets or changing rooms left anywhere regardless of gender because there is no cash."

This is just hyperbolic now and using catastrophising to again distract the discussion. Yes, there are less government provided public toilets, that does not remove the significant issue of who is using those.

Helleofabore · 22/04/2026 11:11

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 10:09

It is a minority issue as the chances of any one of us coming across this issue is unlikely. It is a minority issue because there are very few trans people. Yes, it animates a lot of debate - but it is minor for us - because we will be very unlikely to mean a trans person. It is minor statistically not because of whether or not a single trans person is a source of danger - but because statistically you are unlikely to come across them. The point of comparing stats in terms of prison stats is to show that it is a minority issue across a wide population. Actually it is everyone else misunderstanding stats and not me.

Now there is a question as to whether philosophically once one is in - all are in....one may debate that. But this is a philosophical rather than practical issue. And practically speaking - it is a minority issue. Now I am an academic and I love nothing more than debating philosophical, abstract and highly irrelevant issues but if we are being practical and talking about relevance - yes, it is a minority topic that has been highjacked by the daily mail and span out of all proportion.

Ahh... the old there are so few fallacy.

"It is a minority issue as the chances of any one of us coming across this issue is unlikely."

I have trans people in my daily life. I am sure that many people have. You seem to be the one who is ill informed.

'Actually it is everyone else misunderstanding stats and not me."

you do seem to be the one misunderstanding stats and safeguarding.

theilltemperedamateur · 22/04/2026 11:11

@MarieDeGournay

the concept of transgenderism is damaging to women in that it destroys the category 'women' by including in it members of the category 'men'.

But the only reason it has the power to do this is that it resolutely refuses to treat itself as a concept, which individuals can believe in or not as they choose, but insists on being a true description of material reality. And so far has got away with it, putting itself in the position of Mary I, able to declare Protestantism 'untrue' by punishing its adherents (also see Communism, 1984, etc, etc).

The only logical desirable endpoint is one in which transgenderism is treated as a belief system like any other, with believers and non-believers required to accommodate each other exactly as we do for other beliefs.

BettyBooper · 22/04/2026 11:09

Clafoutie · 22/04/2026 10:38

@Diverze has exactly the same right to post views and experiences on here as everyone else. I think @Diverze at least deserves respect for defending the viewpoint of their child on here, which takes some bravery on this forum, regardless of whether we agree or not. I think they have been honest about the difficulties parenting a child who feels like this. The problem, always, with this debate,is that there is so little room for any empathy, on either side.

Diverze can post whatever they want.

You seem to be under the illusion that just because they have a child who identifies as the opposite sex they deserve some kind of bravery medal.

What is actually brave is standing up for women in a society that has collectively swallowed an ideology that is harmful to women and girls and benefits perverted men. Because it creates huge holes in safeguarding.

Reorganising society to make a small number of people feel better about believing a lie is harmful to everyone. It's not about 'lacking empathy'.

Helleofabore · 22/04/2026 11:04

"I want to get to a position of saying 'trans people are going to be mentally healthier if they aren't overly invested in "being perceived as" the other sex and "having the perceived privileges" of the other sex. In return, they deserve respect, dedicated spaces and dignity'.

I get that.

However, there is an inherent sexism about declaring that someone is not the sex they are. Just dismissing this with 'they know who they are' doesn't actually go to the very heart of the categorisation that they are rejecting and making.

And any person who requires any other person to use opposite sex language for them is heavily invested enough in being perceived as the other sex. I, and other women, do not consider it respectful at all that any male person uses female language to describe themselves. That is not respectful and it violates female dignity and causes harm in many ways collectively.

Humptydumptysat · 22/04/2026 11:03

Memoryhole · 22/04/2026 11:00

The minority thing is a red herring.

only a minority of men rape and assault women. But we can’t tell which ones they are so there is a blanket ban in women’s spaces.

only a minority of sports people indulge in doping, but we can’t tell which ones so we test everyone

only a minority of adults abuse children but we can’t tell which ones so we have secure child protection in placethat expects everyone to have DBS if they want to work with kids

only a minority of people will try and rob me but I can’t tell which ones so I lock my doors at night

only a minority of car trips culminate in an accident but I can’t tell which ones so I always wear a seat belt.

its all ‘because we don’t know’. And with transwomen we can’t know. Just like with all the other men.

It is certainly not a minority of TRAs who are saying women’s boundaries should be ignored, that our language should be appropriated, our services destroyed…

ContentedAlpaca · 22/04/2026 11:01

BettyBooper · 22/04/2026 10:50

Did you completely miss the Sandie Peggy case? Darlington nurses? Edinburgh rape service?

Noone here is against 3rd spaces! It's the TRAs who won't accept it as an option.

Why do you think FWS went to the Supreme Court? It wasn't because they hated trans people. It was because the TRAs were insisting that trans identifying males should be allowed in women's spaces.

You are arguing with the people who have been pushing for what you are suggesting for over a decade.

Agree, I assume these are the trans people just trying to live their life that Diverse is thinking of. One is a nurse and another, a doctor. Normal, respectable roles with a lot of responsibility.
Why does Diverse think they didn't find a 3rd space to be acceptable?

TheKeatingFive · 22/04/2026 11:01

Memoryhole · 22/04/2026 11:00

The minority thing is a red herring.

only a minority of men rape and assault women. But we can’t tell which ones they are so there is a blanket ban in women’s spaces.

only a minority of sports people indulge in doping, but we can’t tell which ones so we test everyone

only a minority of adults abuse children but we can’t tell which ones so we have secure child protection in placethat expects everyone to have DBS if they want to work with kids

only a minority of people will try and rob me but I can’t tell which ones so I lock my doors at night

only a minority of car trips culminate in an accident but I can’t tell which ones so I always wear a seat belt.

its all ‘because we don’t know’. And with transwomen we can’t know. Just like with all the other men.

Exactly

This is not difficult.

People are pretending not to understand

Memoryhole · 22/04/2026 11:00

The minority thing is a red herring.

only a minority of men rape and assault women. But we can’t tell which ones they are so there is a blanket ban in women’s spaces.

only a minority of sports people indulge in doping, but we can’t tell which ones so we test everyone

only a minority of adults abuse children but we can’t tell which ones so we have secure child protection in placethat expects everyone to have DBS if they want to work with kids

only a minority of people will try and rob me but I can’t tell which ones so I lock my doors at night

only a minority of car trips culminate in an accident but I can’t tell which ones so I always wear a seat belt.

its all ‘because we don’t know’. And with transwomen we can’t know. Just like with all the other men.

Shortshriftandlethal · 22/04/2026 10:59

InfoSecInTheCity · 22/04/2026 10:44

I encountered 3 transwomen working in shops this morning while I was out in town, 1 in The Works, 1 in Boots and 1 in Poundland, all very obviously transwomen and not in any way passing as women before anyone says that you can’t tell. So I definitely think that while still a minority, that minority is smaller now than 10 years ago.

I thinnk the numbers of cross dressers has long been under-estimated; but the trans movement has now given them permission and confidence ( even kudos) to do so in public, and encouraged many to take it 'full time'.

AprilMizzel · 22/04/2026 10:57

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 10:45

I live in London and in my local area we definitely have a dearth of public facilities. Toilets in our local park are mixed - I use them without thinking during the day and wouldnt use the in the dark same as with single sex toilets, mainly because I dont think that rapists who are likely to attack me in the dark care about such petty things as toilet signs.

So you do have access to public toilets but feel unsafe using them at certain times - fair enough but why should that mean that other people ie women should feel unsafe in them all the time because you make male access easier?

If women feel they are unsafe all the time I assume usage will decrease and then there's even less reason to keep them - making your access issues even worse?

Social convesntion used to mean seeing men who weren't cleaning or with a reaosn litoring or entering womens toilets would raise concerns or illict a reponse - now after many years of breaking that convesntion it offers less protection but it never meant men would never enter just that commnunity eyes would clock that and maybe intervene - that visblity tends to deter on the spur crime as much as anything.

Shortshriftandlethal · 22/04/2026 10:56

wishingonastar101 · 22/04/2026 08:41

Something I have noticed recently is women's only spaces aimed at Muslim women (not excluding women of non or other religions - just aimed at or advertised to muslim women).

Like religion trumps trans ideology.

I thought it was an interesting development.

I suspect that is how the Left manages the cognitive dissonance of being 'pro trans' but also 'pro- muslim/anti-western imperialism' at the same time.

Helleofabore · 22/04/2026 10:55

ContentedAlpaca · 22/04/2026 09:32

I've just realised the op has posted in naivety but has heard every single one of these discussion points before.

Considering the OP was defending their gentle trans friend by lying (either the poster was lying or the person who told the poster was lying) about an interaction with Kellie Jay Keen on another thread where many of the same discussion points were posted at the time, I suspect they have heard every single one of the discussion points and has dismissed many of them.

BettyBooper · 22/04/2026 10:50

Diverze · 22/04/2026 10:39

I would be interested in a survey of trans people on the matter.

Did you completely miss the Sandie Peggy case? Darlington nurses? Edinburgh rape service?

Noone here is against 3rd spaces! It's the TRAs who won't accept it as an option.

Why do you think FWS went to the Supreme Court? It wasn't because they hated trans people. It was because the TRAs were insisting that trans identifying males should be allowed in women's spaces.

You are arguing with the people who have been pushing for what you are suggesting for over a decade.

Humptydumptysat · 22/04/2026 10:50

Waheymum · 22/04/2026 06:24

Over about fifteen years, I've noticed growing awareness and concern about transpeople. This may be my age and simply a case of when people I knew started to transition.
What I'm wondering is whether there are statistics further to the last census on how many people are transitioning or have transitioned. This is because I'm pretty sure that men are still a bigger threat to women's safety than transgender (m-f) women are. I'm not saying that no transwoman poses a risk to women, I'm querying whether, statistically, I'm better off crossing the road to avoid a cisgender man or a transgender woman (if, hypothetically, one were on each side of the road).

Ah, the prosecutors fallacy.

There are more men who don’t identify as trans so they as a group present more of a risk. But that tells us nothing about individual risk. When it comes down to individual men, those who claim to be women are several times more likely to commit a sexual offence than men who do not.

nicepotoftea · 22/04/2026 10:50

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 10:42

The point of the post is whether it's a marginal issue. It is. Whilst one may worry about lots of things at once - I assume that you worry more about the frequent sexual assaults on women in hospitals and old people's homes due to inadequate staffing and will vote accordingly as clearly that is more of a mainstream issue.

And how are you defining these people you are calling 'women'? Are you suggesting that they might be more vulnerable than other people, and if so why?

The attempt to remove women's rights is not a marginal issue.

You can argue the toss about when single sex services are appropriate, but women's rights depend on sex being clearly being defined in law.

MulderandBambi · 22/04/2026 10:49

BbjghiIfewh · 22/04/2026 10:45

I live in London and in my local area we definitely have a dearth of public facilities. Toilets in our local park are mixed - I use them without thinking during the day and wouldnt use the in the dark same as with single sex toilets, mainly because I dont think that rapists who are likely to attack me in the dark care about such petty things as toilet signs.

Not that old chestnut. Sure, a sign won't stop everyone, just like speed limits don't stop everyone from speeding, doesn't mean you should do away with them completely, does it?