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1984Now · 11/01/2026 11:27

BrokenSunflowers · 11/01/2026 11:21

Reform would in no way be a defect English National Party in Scotland!!!

I'm saying that Reform inhabit many roles. They are the default English National Party in England, and the Brexit torch bearers for the whole UK.
They likely become the (just) dominant party in Wales, now supplying the anti-Labour role with the Tories below insignificant. Toe to toe with Plaid.
In Scotland, they edge towards becoming the relevant opposition to the SNP.
All three of these roles, in terms of votes and MPs harvested, means Reform have three active sources of popularity, and with the multi party atomised nature of UK politics from now on, become the dominant force.

SwirlyGates · 11/01/2026 11:26

Igneococcus · 11/01/2026 09:18

I had a thyroid issue which required travel to Glasgow many times (three hours by train there and then three hours back but at least I can work on the train) a few years back and they sent a cancellation letter to me the day before the appointment 2nd class. Even 1st class wouldn't have made it in time for the 5am train. They had three phone numbers for me, three! One appointment for an ultrasound guided biopsy, the consultant wasn't in a room with an US and her colleague who was in a room with a US wouldn't let her use it for the five minutes it would have taken to perform the biopsy. So many NHS problems are because of things like this.

My GP practice used to not fill my repeat prescription every so often because I needed updated blood pressure tests. Did they tell me this? No. They would just not do it and leave me to chase the pharmacy, chase the GP practice - and because it would sometimes get missed anyway (or even get sent to some other, random pharmacy!). I wouldn't always know it was because of the blood pressure issue. Eventually I asked the GP practice why they didn't just contact me about the blood pressure. Response - "We don't have your permission to use your phone number." Unbelievable! What's it there for then, just to look pretty on the form?

BrokenSunflowers · 11/01/2026 11:21

1984Now · 11/01/2026 10:37

I can see Reform and the Tories after 2029 mimicking the SNP and Scottish Greens before their breakup.
Reform become the defacto English National Party with plenty of Welsh support and main opposition the SNP.
Like the SNP, a core 30% support with atomised 6-way opposition keeps Reform as the permanent party of govt.
And like the period of govt where the Scottish Greens were co-opted into govt, the Tories enable Farage.

Reform would in no way be a defect English National Party in Scotland!!!

1984Now · 11/01/2026 10:37

BrokenSunflowers · 11/01/2026 09:30

Ironically Reform actually occupy a lot of the same ground as the SNP used to. The SNP never used to be left wing and Reform aren’t wed to Scotland remaining part of the UK. They aren’t an independence party but a nationalist one and I suspect would prioritise that over maintaining the union.

I can see Reform and the Tories after 2029 mimicking the SNP and Scottish Greens before their breakup.
Reform become the defacto English National Party with plenty of Welsh support and main opposition the SNP.
Like the SNP, a core 30% support with atomised 6-way opposition keeps Reform as the permanent party of govt.
And like the period of govt where the Scottish Greens were co-opted into govt, the Tories enable Farage.

BrokenSunflowers · 11/01/2026 09:30

Ironically Reform actually occupy a lot of the same ground as the SNP used to. The SNP never used to be left wing and Reform aren’t wed to Scotland remaining part of the UK. They aren’t an independence party but a nationalist one and I suspect would prioritise that over maintaining the union.

1984Now · 11/01/2026 09:22

BrokenSunflowers · 11/01/2026 09:02

The NHS app is a prime example of the SnP failure. They could have gone with the app available in England and had it for years already. But they didn’t because they wanted an entirely independent Scottish app developed in Scotland. So there is still no app and people still rely on paper letters that can’t make it through the snow of the last week, and them phoning up when stuck in the snow and leaving messages on answering machines hoping it won’t push them back down a multi-year wait for treatment. Still having to phone up GP practices for test results etc etc. All because the SNp prioritises being different over getting things done.

Every failed party in Britain is or will be rewarded with losing power. The Tories, next, Labour. But this won't ever remotely threaten the SNP.
I could actually see Reform winning on the vote share the SNP does, and because of a 6 way atomised vote, Farage and his crew stay in power even if Reform fails.
Reform becomes the defacto. ENP (English National Party).
The main party in England so by extension the perma-majority party.in govt, and the main party/opposition in Wales/Scotland.

Hoardasurass · 11/01/2026 09:22

MyAmpleSheep · 09/01/2026 18:54

the law itself stands until it is changed

I think that's right. But if the court says the law is incompatible with human rights legislation then the Scottish Government will have a stronger argument to delay further changing its policy.

It would also force the UK government to either to defend the EA2010 and appeal such a declaration, or commit to changing it. Either piss, or get off the pot, so to speak.

If you think about it it's a great wrecking move by the Scottish government.

Its a very risky move that is very likely to backfire as when a judge (this judge or a higher crt judge on appeal) throws out their request for an order of incompatibility, it becomes a death nel for all the TRA arguments and will force both the uk government and the snp government to implement the SC ruling, it will also scupper all the TRA attempts to overturn it as it is compatible with human rights laws

Igneococcus · 11/01/2026 09:18

BrokenSunflowers · 11/01/2026 09:02

The NHS app is a prime example of the SnP failure. They could have gone with the app available in England and had it for years already. But they didn’t because they wanted an entirely independent Scottish app developed in Scotland. So there is still no app and people still rely on paper letters that can’t make it through the snow of the last week, and them phoning up when stuck in the snow and leaving messages on answering machines hoping it won’t push them back down a multi-year wait for treatment. Still having to phone up GP practices for test results etc etc. All because the SNp prioritises being different over getting things done.

I had a thyroid issue which required travel to Glasgow many times (three hours by train there and then three hours back but at least I can work on the train) a few years back and they sent a cancellation letter to me the day before the appointment 2nd class. Even 1st class wouldn't have made it in time for the 5am train. They had three phone numbers for me, three! One appointment for an ultrasound guided biopsy, the consultant wasn't in a room with an US and her colleague who was in a room with a US wouldn't let her use it for the five minutes it would have taken to perform the biopsy. So many NHS problems are because of things like this.

OP posts:
BrokenSunflowers · 11/01/2026 09:02

The NHS app is a prime example of the SnP failure. They could have gone with the app available in England and had it for years already. But they didn’t because they wanted an entirely independent Scottish app developed in Scotland. So there is still no app and people still rely on paper letters that can’t make it through the snow of the last week, and them phoning up when stuck in the snow and leaving messages on answering machines hoping it won’t push them back down a multi-year wait for treatment. Still having to phone up GP practices for test results etc etc. All because the SNp prioritises being different over getting things done.

ArabellaSaurus · 11/01/2026 08:43

I know, Igneo. We can look forward to years more photo opps for that useless shiny faced fucker who does absolutely the square root of fuck all for his lovely salary.

Igneococcus · 11/01/2026 08:33

ArabellaSaurus · 11/01/2026 08:30

Hmm.You only need 30ish percent to win, and Reform have the advantage of appealing to disaffected voters apparently across the political spectrum.

I think low turn out may be an issue overall, though.

Yes, Reform could possibly do it. I have no idea how that would play out for Scotland. A&B is predicted to go to the SNP, it's not even tight.

OP posts:
ArabellaSaurus · 11/01/2026 08:30

Igneococcus · 10/01/2026 16:41

The problem is that the not-SNP vote is split. You have 30+ % of voters who will vote SNP come what may and the rest is split between four parties and the SGreens and some even more marginal ones. We will never get them out.

Hmm.You only need 30ish percent to win, and Reform have the advantage of appealing to disaffected voters apparently across the political spectrum.

I think low turn out may be an issue overall, though.

INeedAPensieve · 11/01/2026 08:23

NaomiCunninghamHasHadHerWeetabixAgain · 10/01/2026 12:38

I know a number of former SNP voters who will not vote for them again while pressing for a Scotland where women have less rights than they do now.

Edited

I'm one of them, until they stop this madness I will never vote them in again. Betrayed is an understatement...

Igneococcus · 11/01/2026 08:20

BrokenSunflowers · 10/01/2026 17:54

Starmer didn’t win votes though - Labour got a very similar number of votes as they got at the previous election when the Tories got a large majority. The Tories also lost a good number of seats at Westminster this time round as the right of centre vote was split with Reform. Labour got a landslide with a huge majority despite 80% of voters not voting for them. The SNP also lost a large number of seats at the last general election.

The Scottish elections are sort of PR - which means a large number of MSPs are dependent on the party not constituency for their seats and, like Green MSPs, can win seats despite not being named on the ballot and nearly 94% of voters voting against their party. Then they get handed huge power as the kingpin in a coalition…

Yes, I know there is a big difference in the election system between the UK and Scotland but even in UK elections with FPTP votes will fracture even further in future.
I don't understand why Starmer feels so beholden to the Labour backbenchers, a lot of them won't be reelected in the next election anyway. I suppose he is trying to survive until then and it will loose Labour the next election.

OP posts:
BrokenSunflowers · 10/01/2026 17:54

Starmer didn’t win votes though - Labour got a very similar number of votes as they got at the previous election when the Tories got a large majority. The Tories also lost a good number of seats at Westminster this time round as the right of centre vote was split with Reform. Labour got a landslide with a huge majority despite 80% of voters not voting for them. The SNP also lost a large number of seats at the last general election.

The Scottish elections are sort of PR - which means a large number of MSPs are dependent on the party not constituency for their seats and, like Green MSPs, can win seats despite not being named on the ballot and nearly 94% of voters voting against their party. Then they get handed huge power as the kingpin in a coalition…

Igneococcus · 10/01/2026 16:50

1984Now · 10/01/2026 16:44

I wonder if that's how UK politics will work out in future.
Reform and SNP on 30% get permanent power.
Opposition of the other six parties atomised.

It's possible. Coalition negotiations are going to be entertaining (not in a good way).

OP posts:
1984Now · 10/01/2026 16:44

Igneococcus · 10/01/2026 16:41

The problem is that the not-SNP vote is split. You have 30+ % of voters who will vote SNP come what may and the rest is split between four parties and the SGreens and some even more marginal ones. We will never get them out.

I wonder if that's how UK politics will work out in future.
Reform and SNP on 30% get permanent power.
Opposition of the other six parties atomised.

Igneococcus · 10/01/2026 16:41

The problem is that the not-SNP vote is split. You have 30+ % of voters who will vote SNP come what may and the rest is split between four parties and the SGreens and some even more marginal ones. We will never get them out.

OP posts:
ArabellaSaurus · 10/01/2026 16:17

SwirlyGates · 10/01/2026 11:46

@ArabellaSaurus Well here you go, Arabella.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Scottish_Parliament_election

According to that, SNP support has dropped massively in the last few years, but apart from a blip in summer 2024 when they were seemingly neck and neck with Labour, they are still way ahead of the other parties. Their share has been fairly stable for about the last 3 years, with the biggest drop in winter 2022-3 (Bryson-gate, campervan). Labour will have been negatively affected by being in power at Westminster, of course.

Looks like, in order
SNP, about 34%
Reform, about 21%
Labour
Lib Dem/Green/Tories
Alba

It would be interesting to see some stats on people's reasons for choosing or abandoning a party.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

Is also informative.

1984Now · 10/01/2026 16:17

ArabellaSaurus · 10/01/2026 16:10

Scots are British taxpayers.

And, your point is? I'm saying that the SNP get disproportionately more seats in Westminster than the rest of the UK, and effectively they also get disproportionately more funding than the rest of UK.
The SNP have worked this to their advantage, yet remain the biggest group of gripers and grifters in British political history.
And seemingly have a lock on power as Scots seem to think the party has their best interests at heart, and still mine the "we're the only ones on your side" schtick.

ArabellaSaurus · 10/01/2026 16:10

1984Now · 10/01/2026 15:20

What's the total number of voters in Scotland?
I mean, the Tories have had their arses handed to them after a shocking 14 years (especially 2020-2024), Starmer will receive the same fate in 2029.
Arguably the SNP have performed worse than both of them, yet stick around like a bad stain you can't shift.
It's almost as if devolution was always a bad idea, create a permanent fiefdom at the British taxpayers dime.

Scots are British taxpayers.

1984Now · 10/01/2026 15:20

BrokenSunflowers · 10/01/2026 15:14

Last general election they got 724,758 votes. They have been a minority government for a while in Scotland - handing lots of power to the Greens. But there do seem to be a lot of idiots who continually vote for them.

What's the total number of voters in Scotland?
I mean, the Tories have had their arses handed to them after a shocking 14 years (especially 2020-2024), Starmer will receive the same fate in 2029.
Arguably the SNP have performed worse than both of them, yet stick around like a bad stain you can't shift.
It's almost as if devolution was always a bad idea, create a permanent fiefdom at the British taxpayers dime.

BrokenSunflowers · 10/01/2026 15:14

1984Now · 10/01/2026 14:48

Scots continue to vote for them in their millions, and they get disproportionate representation at Westminster. They're literally rewarded for failure.

Last general election they got 724,758 votes. They have been a minority government for a while in Scotland - handing lots of power to the Greens. But there do seem to be a lot of idiots who continually vote for them.

1984Now · 10/01/2026 14:48

BrokenSunflowers · 10/01/2026 14:46

I wonder if even the SNP MSPs are amazed at what they get away with. The latest farce concerning breach of parliamentary standards just shows what a joke Holyrood is.

Scots continue to vote for them in their millions, and they get disproportionate representation at Westminster. They're literally rewarded for failure.

BrokenSunflowers · 10/01/2026 14:46

I wonder if even the SNP MSPs are amazed at what they get away with. The latest farce concerning breach of parliamentary standards just shows what a joke Holyrood is.

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