Women's and Equalities Select Committee

@moto748e I am not Mystic Meg, and it would be foolish to predict anything with confidence!

Fair enough, @SionnachRuadh , if there's one thing we've learnt, it's that predictions are increasingly more difficult in this rapidly-changing world. I'd have thought the Tories should be capable of clawing a few seats back in Scotland, after the antics of the SNP, and Labour in Scotland being nowhere much?

I suppose institutions rarely disappear completely. The Liberal Party should really have wound itself up in 1951, but inertia kept it sort of alive until Jeremy Thorpe (of all people!) could give it a new shot of energy.

I think there are two possible outcomes for the Tories in 2029. They could have 80 to 100 seats and still be able to present themselves as a national party. Or they could have 20 to 40 seats and be a regional rump fighting it out with the Lib Dems in the stockbroker belt.

Which outcome happens is a very fine line. It could come down to one or two points in the polls, good or bad candidate selection, and dumb luck.

We're always being told the the UK Tory Party is the most successful political party in the Western world, I don't think it's disappearing anytime soon.

The weird thing about the Tories is that they have a history of a right wing membership and a liberal parliamentary party.

These days the MPs are all pretending to be right wing, because that's what the polls tell them is popular, but the right wing members have mostly gone elsewhere, so they probably have a bigger proportion of de facto Lib Dems in the membership than they've ever had.

If they're reduced to a small regional rump after the next election, I wouldn't rule out the Lib Dems gobbling them up, like the Tories did with the old Liberal Unionists.

Every time I come across mention of Philp he's being gently mocked for ineffectual, inarticulate shoutiness. Jenrick would be a mistake, he doesn't come across as likeable and the makeover just adds to the impression of slippery insincerity. He's also demonstrably corrupt. Based on the interview he gave when he was running last time I'd also say he's not very bright.
Cleverly is more congenial, but if he can't even game a leadership ballot without coming acropper...

I think the Johnson purge was disastrous for the Tories and that it will be difficult for them to re-establish themselves as the party of business and sound economics whilst the Brexit brigade holds sway. Hard to remember that at the time of the referendum the majority of the Cabinet and ordinary Tory backbenchers supported continuing EU membership. The party is now dominated by people who don't have even the most rudimentary grasp of economics or don't care because their wealth insulates them and/or they're raging xenophobes.

Philp is a solid performer.

One of the problems with Stride is that he's got a tiny majority, though a lot of his colleagues are in the same boat.

I weirdly keep forgetting Mel Stride is the shadow chancellor. He's kind of emblematic of the fact that you can climb the Tory greasy pole just by being around a long time, not making enemies, and having party grandees vouch for you being a good bloke.

If the Tories are crushed in May again Kemi will be in a very difficult position. It is likely the knives will come out. Yet the Tories also know changing leader all the time is part of their problem. If they are going to change though 2026 is the sweet spot as it gives 2 to 3 years before a General election. 2027 will be too late.

Internal Tory politics is a minefield. The thing is in a leadership ballot amongst members a more right leaning candidate will always have a big edge. I can see Cleverly getting some support from Tory Mps then running into issues amongst members.

Latest internal survey show Jenrick has a lot of support but Chris Philp, and Mel Stride do as well. Both of them might be contenders too.
https://conservativehome.com/2025/10/17/shadow-cabinet-league-table-huge-badenoch-bounce-post-conference/

I think Kemi (and maybe Starmer?) is safe until May because everyone assumes the May elections will be so horrible, she might as well get to take ownership before a new leader comes in.

Of course there might not be much of a party left after May.

I'm more bearish on Jenrick for a couple of reasons. One is that he does really badly in focus groups. Another is that he's trying to appeal to the right after spending most of his career as a wet, but that just means nobody really trusts him, and people who might support him keep defecting to Reform.

I've heard from reliable sources in Reform that they've turned down 18 MPs who wanted to defect, and it wouldn't surprise me if Jenrick has been blacklisted. The secret Afghan resettlement scheme, which he was up to his neck in as immigration minister, would be reason enough to keep him out.

David Starkey likes Jenrick, I'll give him that, but I'm not sure appealing to David Starkey is the road to electoral success.

I still think Cleverly is the man to beat.

I can see this logic, but it’s possible Kemi’s position will be made untenable and then surely Jenrick or another man will have to step up.

Labour have lost all moral compass on this. Well said Rebecca Paul.

And what a light it shines on the current state of the Labour Party. Absolutely shameful. What do you say, Deputy Leader Powell?

Oh. Nothing.

I find it interesting that Labour seem to think it's a requirement for the token men on the committee to be gay men.

It reminds me of workplaces where DEI leads conceive their job as "rainbow lanyard stuff" and are genuinely surprised to hear that there are nine protected characteristics.

We have two sane members, but like the best women they are doing way more than others.

Important question from Rebecca_SPaul in the CommonsWEC this afternoon on the importance of single-sex changing rooms for women and girls.

"It's not just about them being safe, it's about them feeling safe."
Thread
https://nitter.net/hartleythinking/status/1983582870288335212

Eleven members of the committee - two of them on record in believing in the existence of women.

Rosie Duffield, Independent and Rebecca Paul - Conservative

What a farce.

After the understandable defeat my thinking was this:
Someone sensible was needed to hold the team together whilst our Party leaders came to terms with reality and worked out policy and the way forward. Then when we had a set of policies we are happy with we take them around the country and measure reaction. With about 15 months before the next G E, a new fresh Captain takes over and we go on to win about 150 Seats. At the moment I accept that seems optimistic. But hell let's be ambitious.
Kemi is keeping the show on the road - but only just. At a personal level I am disappointed in her. I think the party accepts that she is OK.
Jenrick is the best hope for a high profile leader to take us into the GE. Cleverly, Philp & Victoria Atkins are very good and are not likely to have extreme views and will be good in senior positions in my view..

Now they know how Labour felt!

I should think they'll let Kemi lead them into the next election, and when it all goes badly wrong for them, as it seems likely it will, they'll blame her and then have an leadership election to replace her. A leadership contest now would be to much of a poison chalice, nobody will want it if they know they'll have to stand down after their defeat in the next election.

It would be really dumb to have Jenrick as the leader at the next election.

It will just make reform and the tories sound the same.

And given how bad the tories reputation is, those inclined to the right or a protest vote will go with Reform.

The problem is that Kemi (for a Tory) probably says the rights things.

But she doesn't show boat.

So both msm and sm dont even bother with what she is saying.

We dont have politics in the UK any more. We have theatrics and desparate attempts to get media attention.

And we are to blame as well.

Just pick up on the shouty bits, or dramatic tv images.

Although on reflection if Starmer is still PM we will have 3 parties all saying much the same way. Some in an not very full on well (Labour) through the Tories to Reform revelling in being as gross as they can be. Great to know that they think this who the British are.

You are all quite that Jenrick will probably be the leader to take us into the next election.
Kemi will still be a Shad Minister for something and she will still keep fighting away. I doubt she will settle for an easy life.

Women's support of TWAW is massive on the left, sadly. Many Lesbians also support TWAW which is why LGBAlliance gets so much hatred - they are pointing out the elephant in the room (that men cannot be Lesbians) to Lesbians who do not want to make that choice because it impinges on their membership of social circles etc. So being Lesbian or bisexual is no guarantee of being GC.

I quite like her. There are a few MPs like her on the sinking ship, and it would be a shame to lose them.

Or understanding from what, and why, women on certain occasions or types of circumstance, are in need of protection.