Sweden: most convicted rapists foreign born.

Don’t we?

I think rational people would always consider whether a headline of “most people convicted of crime X share characteristic Y” was a sign that people Y were more likely to commit crime X, or just more likely to be convicted. And that’s doubly true for a crime with such an appallingly low conviction rate as rape.

I apologise for using such a trivial “crime” as a comparison but 75% of the people convicted for not paying their tv licence are women. Do we think women are more likely to not pay? Or are there other factors involved in the statistic of people actually convicted?

Two thirds of rapes in Sweden is by foreigners or foreign nationals. Plenty of documentaries about this. It's obvious who they are as it's no different in the UK especially regarding rape gangs.

Again OP, convicted.What proportion of rape reports in Sweden result in a conviction? If it is a very high percentage then any analysis based on data from convictions is much more relevant than data based on only a tiny percentage of rapists.

From the data source linked in the most recent post from the OP:

https://www.migrationcentral.co.uk/p/over-100000-foreign-national-convictions

There were 16,771 convictions for sexual offences, with a known nationality, between 2021 and 2023 and migrants accounted for 2,500 of these. This is 15% of sexual offence convictions during this time period.
A further 1,652 convictions were of individuals where the nationality was “unknown”. This means that between up to 23% of all sexual offence convictions could have been of foreign nationals.

and further down:

The UK has an acute problem with effectively prosecuting and convicting perpetrators of rape and sexual offences. Between 2021 and 2023 there were 535,500 sexual offences recorded by the police. This means the conviction rate is just 3.1%.

And that second part is the real issue here. How can you draw any conclusion on who is most likely to commit a sexual offence when you’re only looking at 3% of those committed, without even opening the entire can of worms that is unreported offences.

This is such a bizarre argument. It’s human nature to want to keep ourselves and our families safe. Deliberately exposing yourself to risk so as not to appear racist is weird. We are not martyrs.

That’s a source with a lot of agenda behind it.

That graph for starters is terrible. So 23% of people who are convicted of sexual crimes are either of a foreign nationality or unknown nationality. Apparently about 16.8% of the population in England and Wales are foreign nationals (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/internationalmigrationenglandandwales/census2021)

So unless by some bizarre coincidence all of those convicted with an unknown nationality are foreign nationals then it seems pretty proportional to the population.

And then of course there’s the fact it looks only at those convicted, the piss poor prosecution and conviction rates of rapists and other sexual offences make any analysis based on data only of those convicted is inherently flawed.

Are you trying to say that even if it were true, statistically speaking, that non-white men were significantly more likely to commit rape, you wouldn't think it was ok to talk about it because it would be a racist fact?

Because that is what it sounds like you are saying.

In truth, no one thinks it has anything to do with skin colour, it could be that there is a correlation with ethnicity, and therefore skin colour, but we all know that correlations often have no cause and effect between them.

And say that it's true. That for example, Romanian men or Indian are much more likely to be rapists. I don't really understand why we'd prefer Romanian or Indian women to be raped than Swedish women.

Focusing on immigration does rather imply that we'd rather those brown women suffered than us. Promoting women's rights everywhere should bring down rape everywhere. Importing and exporting rapists doesn't stop rape. It just means women with less resources suffer it.

Wow. I didn't know that but it's true! Män som hatar kvinnor!

Speculating but perhaps it's more to do with the nature of the rape and which rapes are more likely to lead to a conviction. If a woman is raped by a complete stranger on the street verses being raped in student digs by someone she has been friendly with for months this might mean there is more evidence than just hers. There is also likely to be a cultural element. Sadly we know that there are cultures where women are considered to be asking for it if they are not covered.

Not forgetting that the original Swedish title of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is Men Who Hate Women.

Sweden has a... reputation shall we say. You only have to the read Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to get even the smallest flavour of it (it's not just fiction, it's based on extensive research on VAWG in Sweden).

It's a convenient way to get their poor rape stats improving (even if only superficially and for headlines) with an added far-right agenda. "Blame the immigrants, because obviously if we had no immigrants, there would be no rape at all..."

Given that immigrants come from a wide variety of cultures, why are you assuming it is their home culture that is causing some foreign born immigrants to rape instead of other societal factors? I think it’s likely to be a little more complex.

”Wildly misogynistic societies” like the EU & U.K.? As that is where the majority of foreign born residents of Sweden are from.

Why is it when you see “foreign born” and “rapist” your mind assumes brown Muslim men?

Or

Do men away from home with no family nearby to disappoint and are invisible behave differently than they otherwise would?

The same person at home or ten years later, with a family and a business might not dream of abusing women?

The definition of rape in Sweden is broader than other countries. Sexual assaults that aren't classed as rape in the UK would be classed as rape in Sweden. Also in recording rape, each violation within a single assault is recorded as a seperate rape.

I'd like to see the statistics on education level and socio-economic status of the rapists. How many of those immigrants are holding a phd and how many Swedes in jail are actually from deprived areas?

I echo the thoughts of PPs.

What is more important - women's safety, or wanting to be seen as anti-racist?

Are foreign born men more likely to rape than Swedish born men?

OR

Are foreign born men more likely to be convicted of rape than Swedish born men and is there a problem with the Swedish justice system?

We should not take the headline at face value. These two questions are important to look at properly. Is it a race issue or an inequality issue.

Posters are trying to have a reasoned conversation about ‘this’. Speculation, as you are doing, is fine to some extent, especially speculation that has a logical basis behind it. This can be the seed for research. It would certainly be interesting and useful to know whether most rapists in Sweden are actually foreign-born. Is the convicted population of rapists representative of the entire body of Swedish rapists, especially when we consider the low rate of rape prosecutions?

The problem is that you and others have already decided the answer and the OP introduced statistics that were intended to back up this point of view. The statistics say what the statistics say, but the data is of limited value unless we have a fuller picture of the ethnic breakdown of men accused of rape. Other posters trying to open up the conversation have then been accused of the opposite!

I came to the conclusion some years ago that having conversations with white people about issues concerning race is a waste of time. The people you need to speak to are not the ones who want to know the truth, the ones who come to discussions with a fairly open mind. These people are already taking a more rounded view. The people I would like to expose to a different viewpoint and challenge some of their preconceptions, they have fixed views. You can debate all day long but they only want to hear things that back up what they already believe.

When Woke ideology clashes with itself, the losers are always women.