Not disagreeing with Henning, but I'm not sure why this particular completely unconvincing man in a dress is the one to suddenly test the credulity - I've seen loads and loads like this before. They're all over tik tok, lesbian apps and claiming to be women when charged with sex offences. Those pic collections of TW who've been convicted of sex offences always look similar. I don't know how anyone can think Karen White for example is a "real" TW but this person isn't? What about that Alex Drummond one or Danielle Muscato, the ones who look 100% like men and don't even bother with a wig?
Maybe this is how the tipping point will function, with people suddenly finding themselves able to say "Oh come on now THAT's not a woman is it!?" when we've all been told we have to say they are a woman up till now, whatever they look like.
And I don't think a TW who "passes" is a woman either, so it's a bit of a red herring. Being able to do a convincing impersonation of a different race form your own, a person with cerebral palsy when you don't have it, a security guard when you're not one etc or even lying convincingly about your age, doesn't mean you should be accepted as a category you are not, and people don't seem to struggle with that idea in those situations.