So. That interesting hypothesis that trans-identifying males might only look as if they're more likely to be sexual offenders than other male people. The claim was that they're less likely to commit other types of violent offences against the person than other males? Is it being claimed that this subset of male humans has the same sexual offending rate as the wider population of male humans then?
Are they supposed to have a lower rate for all other violent crime (e.g. battery, actual bodily harm) or just murder? How does that work? I find it implausible that someone who will commit rape (a violent crime) will only ever beat someone up as part of rape.
The government stats can't answer this question for me, because the prison service doesn't separate out trans-iding prisoners.
extract
In these Offender Management Statistics, prisoners are simply grouped into male and female, with no explanation as to the policy for recording the sex or gender of transgender prisoners.
His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) does collect data on transgender prisoners as part of an annual data collection exercise for its Offender Equalities Annual Report. This data represents a snapshot of the prison population on 31 March. For the purposes of this data collection, “transgender prisoners are defined as those individuals known within prison to be currently living in, or presenting in, a gender different to their legal gender and who have had a local case board (as defined by ‘The Care and Management of Individuals who are Transgender’ policy framework ) and is known to the diversity and inclusion lead within the individual prison where they are housed.”
Prisoners who possess a Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC) are excluded from the detailed data on transgender prisoners. As of 31 March 2022, 11 individuals in prisoners in England and Wales had a GRC. HMPPS also states that this method is “likely to underestimate the true number [of transgender prisoners]. This is because some transgender prisoners, both with and without GRCs, may not have declared that they are transgender or had a local case board.” The latest HMPPS report indicates that on 31 March 2022, • There were 230 transgender prisoners in England and Wales, not including those with a GRC. • Of these, 187 prisoners reported their ‘legal gender’ as male and 43 as female. For the most part this is likely to be capturing sex at birth, given that prisoners with a GRC are excluded from the analysis. • 181 of these individuals were in male prisons and 49 in female prisons. • 79 out of 120 prisons had at least one prisoner who identified as transgender.