Mary Harrington - Why are so many transgender prisoners sex offenders?

How can someone "lie" about being trans? There is no other measure apart from self declaration - and in some instances the suffering from dysphoria.

Easy: you know full well you aren't trans, but lie about it for whatever reason.

"Genuine trans" could be a mix of various different things perhaps.

But there is still a very real difference between someone that genuinely believes, and someone that knows they are lying.

Whether you can measure it is irrelevant, to there being a real difference, and a difference that we should presumably care about in theory.

Even the trans-activists presumably don't believe that someone is trans, if you put the hypothetical to them that someone is lying. So they may say "self declaration" in practice, but I'm guessing they would insist on genuine belief in theory at least.

It's difficult to measure anxiety. There is still a real difference between someone that genuinely has it, and someone that lies because they want a benzo prescription.

Yes, this is indeed true. However I do think female prisoners are an easier target than male prisoners

I know we have to be a bit careful when talking about this topic so as not to get deleted but for some men cross dressing is clearly a part of a paraphilic disorder. I'm surprised this knowledge hasn't yet been assigned to the memory hole but it is still available for those interested.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK554425/#:~:text=A%20total%20of%20eight%20Paraphilias,and%20transvestic%20fetishism.%5B1%5D

Mmm, may I point out that one of the people in who is known to be a trans-identifying male and in prison for crimes (and post transition, at that) is there for...

attempted murder.

Also, the inclusion of Jeska in the women's stats for attempted murder distorted the annual stats significantly, because so few women are in prison for that as a crime. Jeska single-handedly formed a crime-wave.

Other things you should know about Jeska

A fell-runner has been jailed for 18 years for attempting to stab to death a UK Athletics official after a row over test samples.

Lauren Jeska from Powys took two kitchen knives she concealed in a bag to Ralph Knibbs' office at Birmingham's Alexander Stadium on 22 March last year.

He was left with life-threatening injuries after the "wholly unprovoked" and "cool, calculated attack", Judge Simon Drew QC said.

Two of his colleagues were also hurt after they tried to stop the "frenzied" assault about his head and neck.

Sky News

Jeska was the women’s 2010, 2011 and 2012 English fell running champion and won the British Championship in 2012.

Just this year, it was reported that Jeska's record is still up on the Parkrun website.

But on the global community fun run Parkrun website, which organises 5-kilometre weekly races for all abilities around the world, Jeska continues to hold the women’s record time for Aberystwyth, with a time of 17 minutes 38 seconds, prompting outrage from campaigners for equality in women’s sport.

Telegraph 2023

I don't understand your maths. There are over 80,000 people in UK prisons and only a few thousand of those are serving sentences for murder.

https://fullfact.org/crime/how-long-do-murderers-serve-prison/

If one group of prisoners had no murderers at all in its ranks, how could that possibly skew the % of people in that group being in for a different offence by 45%?

I’ve seen some debate about how sex offenders are more likely than other men to have various paraphillic disorders and so this might account for the increased frequency of trans identification of male sex offenders. I’m not sure where that idea comes from though or if it’s backed by evidence.

How does anyone lie about being trans, when being trans is just a declaration by the person who says they are trans?

Or to put it another way, what is the difference between a man who is 'genuinely trans' and a man who is pretending to be trans?

Surely the answer is that there are no women to rape in a male prison. Violent sex offender = looking for more women to rape. Where are they? Women's prison. How do I , the violent rapist, get there? Say I'm a woman.

Out of interest, does anyone actually argue that trans women are genuinely more likely to be sex offenders?

Or is the argument that the data is probably completely corrupted by sex offenders lying about being trans?

I'm interested that you are arguing both:

"I think it’s pretty well established in numerous U.K., US anc Swedish studies... that males socialised from birth to be aggressive and violent (toxic masculinity) and then transition as MtF will retain the male pattern of criminality."

And:

"The % sex offenders among convicts could be high because transwomen do not murder as often as men (for example)."

So they will "retain the male pattern of criminality", but maybe not for murder?

Is it the female hormones or something?

I'm glad my calculations matched yours!

And here is the prison data...

https://data.justice.gov.uk/prisons

And data for TW in prison...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1119803/HMPPS_Offender_Equalities_2021-22_Report.pdf

Crossposted with Signalbox, but our estimates are similar although expressed in a slightly different way.

To get a view as to whether TW are more likely than men to be sex offenders you have to look at offending rates on a whole population basis, not % of convicts basis.

OK, I've done this. I've used the census data from here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/census and the figures quoted by @Signalbox at 10.57 today.

From the census:
Total number of males 18 and over in England and Wales = 23.2 million
Total number of 'transwomen' in England and wales = 48000

From Signalbox's prison figures:
13234 male sex offenders in prison
76 transwomen sex offenders in prison

So I have calculated that about 0.06% of men are currently imprisoned for sex offences and about 0.16% of males who identify as transwomen are currently imprisoned for sex offences.

This means that transwomen are nearly 3 times as likely as other men to be sex offenders.

All the data is at the links so you can check my calculations.

That would be rather like the Cologne rapes situation.

Where its a rather unpleasant truth that shines an unpleasant light on one particular group and so it's seen as better by some to just - pretend it never happened.

Based on the view that since bad things only happened to women, who could be told they'd imagined it/made it up/ caused it/were reporting in bad faith, it wasn't like it really mattered.

You'd think the TQ+ population would be deeply concerned by this, and want to know why, rather than just to try and identify as it not happening/only mentioned by mean people. (Who meanly mind about women being raped as opposed to nobly lying back and thinking of Stonewall.)

The misogyny really does defy all belief.

OK well that's doable...

According to the 2021 census 48,000 people ID as trans women in Eng/Wales
And according to MoJ 168 prisoners ID as TW in England and Wales prisons.
That means that 0.35% of TW are in prison and approx 50% are sex offenders.

According to the census there are 29m men and boys in Eng/Wales.
Minus approx. 5m (under 16s) = 24m.
According to the MoJ there are approx. 82,000 men in prison.
That means 0.34% of the adult male people are in prison and approx 17% are sex offenders.

According to the census there are 30m women and girls in Eng/Wales
Minus approx. 5m (under 16s) = 25m.
According to the MoJ there are approx. 3370 women in prison
That means 0.011% of the adult female population are in prison and approx 3.3% are sex offenders.

We can see from this that TW have almost the exact same offending rates as other men when looking at the offending rates of the whole population. The only difference is they are more likely to be convicted of sex offences than other men. Even accounting for slight variations/ discrepancies in my figures you can see that TW are nowhere near in line with female offending rates.

Yes, we do hear many people repeating the old mythos of testosterone making you aggressive. They believe it to be true, so they see only what they believe. They may even feel they have license to act more aggressively because they take testosterone.

I am really puzzled about this - if you do not think this is almost exclusively the effect of testosterone - are you saying that, say, over two decades of socialization as a female (and being less aggressive) can be changed by 6 months of 'socialization as male'? How about the sex drive?
Or are you just saying that is a placebo effect?

Males in just as many species do not fight to win over a female. Some build homes/nests and the female picks the best one. Some species the fattest male wins the prize. Other species it’s the best dancer that wins. Other species the male that brings the best food as gifts that wins.

Not in apes though

Because no ethnicity commits 99% of sex crimes. Males do. Transwomen are male. No matter how you try to hide it or stop people talking about it those are the facts and the reasons are as clear as day. Nothing special happens when a man declares himself a woman, they remain male in all regards including rates and type of offending and because you have no case all you can do is to try and silence people.
It's not working by the way.

No, but they can be over-represented in other areas, particularly violent assault.

Not just the prison population either, but actually the stats for violent assault aren't ethnically balanced at all.

I'm not sure that it is a good idea to avoid talking about that though, just because it seems to raise difficult questions. Not in this thread obviously, but in society.

If it was true, what would be the problem in asking that?
Do we want to understand why this happens, or do we want to pretend that it does not?