Dave is Back!!!

I hope somewhere someone is enjoying £1,000,000 after putting a £1 bet on 24th June 2016 "David Cameron will be back in government within a decade".,

The odds are 5/1.

Ours can be whenever Rish! wants up until December 2024 when (in theory) it's out of his hands.

Generally governments that run it to the wire lose.

However the flurry of less-reported resignations on Monday suggest that some MPs want to be ready for a May election, since they are supposed to wait 6 months after resigning before they take on a new role.

It's quite possible that even a lot of Tory supporters are keen for an election NOW (as it's their first chance to ditch Rish!) and are quite likely to punish the party further if they are made to wait any longer. After all, if you are a Tory and you damn well know they have fuck all chance at the next election, then why would you vote for them at that point ? You'd either stay at home, or have a laugh and boost their trouncing. Bearing in mind the more harsh the defeat, the more power the membership has.

May. I might put a bet on it.

I can’t see them doing an Election straight after the summer break so it is likely October or December which to mean equals too close to the US election given the geopolitical situation. And so they need to start committing to a date sooner rather than later.

The US election is 5 November 2024. So ours will be…. September 2024?

A second Whitehall source said: “Far more care would have to be taken around national security and meddling from hostile countries.”

What ? To make sure it happens they mean.

They’ve been told not to for obvious reasons.

^The insider said: “There are huge security and market implications if two Five Eyes countries are holding elections at once. It could potentially open up two countries to cyberwarfare and electoral manipulation from hostile states and if a security threat were to arise during a campaign it would leave western countries exposed.”
A second Whitehall source said: “Far more care would have to be taken around national security and meddling from hostile countries.”^

Both UK and US security services have asked nicely if that can be avoided.

Traditionally, UK Tory governments haven't really had much time for the UKs security so that's not really a factor here.

I wonder whether they will time it to coincide with the US election?

They’re not going to “have a chance”, that ship’s sailed. My money has been on May for months now. Sunak’s not going to risk another humiliating round of local election results.

Which Milliband would we get this time?

Wonder if Sunak will resign then Braverman vs Cameron for PM. If Cameron gets it, can we have Milliband back for Labour, do a reset of all policy enacted since 2010, including Brexit, and have another stab at our wilderness years ? Try the alternative universe ?

The fact that they won't be able to answer the question "who will be Prime Minister if you win the election and how long will they serve?" is a colossal issue.
Of course, as the party of law and order, financial prudence and support for businesses and hard workers, the might just tell us that we've never had it so good.

Well if you did want to have a reasonable idea of the likely result of the next general election, then I'd suggest looking at opinion polls together with recent by-elections and local elections may give a significant clue.

Johnson also, either by accident or design, managed to empower that cabal by booting out so many of the moderates in 2019. He gave no thought to the longer term consequences.

It is because they ousted Thatcher - they thought they held power, without realising that they hold only the power to destroy.

And that everyone else it utterly sick of their antics.

Boris was a controversial choice of leader, but he was the only one who stood up to that destructive little cabal, and got huge majority - as right-leaners thought "well, not sure about Boris, but lets see what the party can do when it's not fighting amongst itself"

And the answer was - start up in-fighting again at the earliest opportunity.

I don’t understand why the Tories always destroy themselves though? They’re always at war with eachother.
They ousted out Thatcher, they tried to get rid of Major, they got rid of all their other PMs.

The conservatives seem to like self destruction.

I didn’t takemuch notice of opinion polls though. There isn’t a general election until next year , traditionally it would be May but the Tories won’t call one unless they think they have a chance. There has be be one by December next year but a years a long way off and things could change.
Again, I don’t read too much into opinion polls.
If the Tories miraculously sort themselves out over next year , they may stop Labour winning.

Tory party seems incapable of learning how damaging their constant in-fighting is

You're right, but it's been like this for decades now. The last time they united around a leader for a lengthy period while they were in government themselves was in the 80s. The far right of the party are unable to help themselves. 2010-15 only worked because being in coalition meant headbanger wing had less influence than they do when the party are in government alone. That old pragmatic Toryism seems to have disappeared from their party DNA.

The next GE has to be about minimising damage for the Tories.

If they think they can't possibly win, then I think the aim will be to make the outcome closer than currently expected (ie Labour's number of seats is a bit lower than expected, and margins in each constituency are a bit narrower than expected) so we shall see the Tories trying to take the centre-right ground (that always used to be theirs, but since Blair it's swung).

If they've given up, then it'll be a move to harder right. Which I think is what was being attempted up to last weekend, and which has been demonstrated to be a failure.

Tory party seems incapable of learning how damaging their constant in-fighting is. The country is not captivated by the Westminster bubble. Their biggest majority in ages came when Boris basically lived up to his "back me or I'll sack you" purge, and presented the country with a united party. If they can persuade the swivel-eyed to fuck off to openly hard right parties, then they might have a future. But I really don't think their awkward squad can see what they are doing.

There is currently, no electoral home for centre-right voters. They may vote Labour, but it'll be because they're Not Tory, not because there is any real sense that Starmer or Labour are actually good enough.

In UK, it's hard to believe that US can't come up with better candidates from president. That's because party systems there and here are broken, and there isn't an easy way to fix it.

I'd like to see more people in representational roles that have come from industry, commerce or professions (other than law, which is over-represented).

I'd like to see competency and attention to detail being core standards.

He took the Conservative MEPs out of the European People's Party bloc in the European Parliament and had them sit with the swivel eyes nutbags and fascists. Trying to buy off the extremists in his own party. Vote for me - I'm not really like that...just pretending. Worked a treat in 2016.

Ted Heath was right : ' You can't compromise with the far right. Never , never , never.'

There won't be much left of the red wall lot, but otherwise I don't know if there's any more detailed analysis anywhere else. I have a feeling Tory MPs in cities mostly have smaller than average majorities too.

The other interesting suggestion was a smaller Tory party would still retain it's overall "shape" regarding left-moderate-extreme. Which makes for some interesting horse trading.

It would be really interesting to take a look at who the 150-200 remaining Tory MPs will be after the next election. Not got the time this week though.

Desperation and a bad choice. He walked away after the vote leaving others to deal with the mess. I'll never forgive him.