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Climate change

109 replies

PingPowKaPowWow · 23/07/2023 15:32

Stephen hawking says that if the polar ice caps melt (I think this means fully melt) then the resultant release of co2 would increase the climate to 250 degrees Celsius.

I am assuming this must be true. It was in his book, brief answers to the big questions, but the quote does not reference how this has been calculated, not what paper the fact is drawn from.

I had no idea that if the ice caps totally melt, the world would be entirely uninhabitable and basically dead. I feel like this needs to be more known about? It's the way he casually writes it.

Climate change
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climatezero · 30/08/2023 14:17

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Olderandolder · 29/07/2023 12:07

Coriolise · 26/07/2023 00:08

We need to stop burning fossil fuels now.
Yes to this

No more oil wells, no more coal mines.
No to this. We use oil and coal for many things other than burning them. Oil is used in lubricants, medicines, fertiliser and cosmetics. Coal is necessary to produce steel and other metals, and is also used in pharmaceuticals.

The activists saying no more oil wells, no more coal mines don’t get this. This is akin to saying we can’t grow or use wood at all because burning wood is bad for the environment when wood also has many other important uses that do not involve burning it and for which we have no good substitute.

I’m a bit confused by
”Yes to this” and “no”??

TooBigForMyBoots · 26/07/2023 00:35

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr · 25/07/2023 23:52

360 million years ago there was around 10x the concentration of CO2 in the air. Plant life thrived. No mammals, mainly amphibians.

Those ancient forests of the Carboniferous period absorbed huge amounts of CO2. As the plants decayed they turned into peat, then lignite, then coal, permanently storing that excess carbon under ground.

At the end of the Carboniferous period, 300 million years ago CO2 levels were similar to pre-industrial levels. Over the last 800 thousand years CO2 concentrations have occupied a fluctuating range of 180-280ppm - up until the pre-industrial era.

Then we cranked it up - we industrialised. And dug up a lot of that coal, and burned it. This released that 300+ million year old CO2 back into the atmosphere.

Now CO2 is up over 418ppm in the course of a few years.

We need to stop burning fossil fuels now. No more oil wells, no more coal mines. More renewables including tons of onshore wind to help us cope until we find a better clean energy source. It’s so clear what we need to do.

We can plant trees and all that in addition, but without ending fossil fuels it will barely make a dent.

I know. I am not a JSO person, or a coral seeding person or a save the tigers person. I am glad that they exist and are doing those bits. I do the plant more trees bit.

I love trees. They're amazing.Grin

Coriolise · 26/07/2023 00:08

We need to stop burning fossil fuels now.
Yes to this

No more oil wells, no more coal mines.
No to this. We use oil and coal for many things other than burning them. Oil is used in lubricants, medicines, fertiliser and cosmetics. Coal is necessary to produce steel and other metals, and is also used in pharmaceuticals.

The activists saying no more oil wells, no more coal mines don’t get this. This is akin to saying we can’t grow or use wood at all because burning wood is bad for the environment when wood also has many other important uses that do not involve burning it and for which we have no good substitute.

fuchiaknickers · 25/07/2023 23:56

I remember as a child lying on the grass, staring into the sky and thinking about the enormity of space and time. I remember thinking that the dinosaurs looked up at the same sun and moon and stars, feeling so small and insignificant in the universe and yet a part of something uniquely special and enduring.
I felt special, privileged to be a part of our miraculous world and its grand adventure, used to wonder what would be learned from my bones when they were dug up as fossils in a thousand years’ time.

And now I just despair. We are destroying our beautiful planet. We are the bad guys in this story, the world is quite literally burning, the coral reefs, the jungles, the African savannah, the pilar ice caps, all the beautiful habitats I poured over in my children’s encyclopedia are disappearing and the birds and animals, evolved over millennia, are being snuffed out.

I don’t feel special any more, I feel ashamed at our greed and selfishness and stupidity and arrogance.

I am not religious, but I was raised in the church, and I have to say that I’m starting feel as though ‘the fall’ was more of a prophecy than a history. We have brought destruction upon ourselves.

brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr · 25/07/2023 23:52

TooBigForMyBoots · 25/07/2023 23:35

The planet has been hotter than now. It has been colder than now. What is not on dispute is that this time, its got hotter because of people and people can and need to sort it out if we are to continue as a species.

Plant more trees.🌲🌳🌴🌵

360 million years ago there was around 10x the concentration of CO2 in the air. Plant life thrived. No mammals, mainly amphibians.

Those ancient forests of the Carboniferous period absorbed huge amounts of CO2. As the plants decayed they turned into peat, then lignite, then coal, permanently storing that excess carbon under ground.

At the end of the Carboniferous period, 300 million years ago CO2 levels were similar to pre-industrial levels. Over the last 800 thousand years CO2 concentrations have occupied a fluctuating range of 180-280ppm - up until the pre-industrial era.

Then we cranked it up - we industrialised. And dug up a lot of that coal, and burned it. This released that 300+ million year old CO2 back into the atmosphere.

Now CO2 is up over 418ppm in the course of a few years.

We need to stop burning fossil fuels now. No more oil wells, no more coal mines. More renewables including tons of onshore wind to help us cope until we find a better clean energy source. It’s so clear what we need to do.

We can plant trees and all that in addition, but without ending fossil fuels it will barely make a dent.

Coriolise · 25/07/2023 23:42

TooBigForMyBoots · 25/07/2023 23:35

The planet has been hotter than now. It has been colder than now. What is not on dispute is that this time, its got hotter because of people and people can and need to sort it out if we are to continue as a species.

Plant more trees.🌲🌳🌴🌵

Yes, this. And the fact it has been as hot as now before during human civilisation and 7C hotter than now with the dinosaurs (and much other animal and plant life) running amok, this fact isn’t to create apathy, it is to counter the climate doomists saying that another 0.4C and its game over, we all die, the planet dies etc.

We can do this. It is not too late.

TooBigForMyBoots · 25/07/2023 23:35

The planet has been hotter than now. It has been colder than now. What is not on dispute is that this time, its got hotter because of people and people can and need to sort it out if we are to continue as a species.

Plant more trees.🌲🌳🌴🌵

SingingNettles · 25/07/2023 23:30

Thank you for the info but honestly it’s probably all a bit beyond me. You seem to have a better grasp than I.

Coriolise · 25/07/2023 23:24

SingingNettles · 25/07/2023 21:05

See this more recent study is one of several pointing out that the geological record of fossils doesn’t support the gradual warming, today is the hottest ever model that those scientists constructed with their every sample must have been from the summer concept.
“Seasonal biases (the warm-season contribution) of Holocene mean annual temperature (MAT) reconstructions from geological records were proposed as a possible cause of the mismatch with climate simulated temperature. Here we analyze terrestrial mollusk assemblages that best reflect seasonal signals and provide quantitative MAT and four-season temperature records for northern China during the past 20,000 years. The MAT estimated from the seasonal temperatures of a four-season-mean based on mollusks shows a peak during ~9000–4000 years ago, followed by a cooling trend. In general, the contribution of summer and winter temperature to MAT is significantly greater than that of spring and autumn temperatures. The relative contribution of each season varies over time and corresponds roughly with the seasonal insolation in each season. This independent evidence from mollusk records from the mid-latitudes of East Asia does not support the Holocene long-term warming trend observed in climate simulations and the seasonal bias explanation.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32506-7

The Holocene temperature conundrum answered by mollusk records from East Asia - Nature Communications

Scientists have been puzzled by the disparity between climate simulations of the past 12,000 years and geological records. Dong et al. reconstructed past annual and seasonal temperatures from land snail records to examine the potential seasonal bias.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32506-7

Coriolise · 25/07/2023 23:13

SingingNettles · 25/07/2023 21:05

Sorry but what you posted doesn’t directly contradict what I posted.

It posits a new climate model and simulation that is not a consensus.

What the scientists in this study have done is arbitrarily decided that all the marine samples (taken from 40N to 40S) and dating to the Holocene must have been from the summer. So the high global temperature reflected in these real, concrete samples is the scientists posit seasonal, not annual. They then wrote an algorithm to estimate a much lower winter temperature, took the mean of the two and declared that the lower mean was the actual global temperature in the Holocene.

Im not convinced. I don’t think it is likely that scientists have unknowingly collected tens of thousands of marine samples that all coincidentally were created during a summer 8,000 to 6,000 years ago.

Swrigh1234 · 25/07/2023 22:08

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Wattiss · 25/07/2023 21:27

He wasn't very good at maths anyway.

strongcupofTea · 25/07/2023 21:18

PingPowKaPowWow · 23/07/2023 15:32

Stephen hawking says that if the polar ice caps melt (I think this means fully melt) then the resultant release of co2 would increase the climate to 250 degrees Celsius.

I am assuming this must be true. It was in his book, brief answers to the big questions, but the quote does not reference how this has been calculated, not what paper the fact is drawn from.

I had no idea that if the ice caps totally melt, the world would be entirely uninhabitable and basically dead. I feel like this needs to be more known about? It's the way he casually writes it.

Probably wrote it so casually because he had a terminal illness and knew it wouldn't effect him or probably anybody he loved living on earth at that moment.

HeritageBlooms · 25/07/2023 21:12

onefinemess · 25/07/2023 08:29

Stop worrying OP, the planet isn't in any danger what so ever.

When people talk about climate change they mean that we, the people, would be affected. The planet will just carry on, it's fine, it's survived a lot worse than we could throw at it.

The solution to climate change is to STOP having children. We need to accept that vast areas of the planet need to be depopulated, as in whole continents. Yes, this does mean that countries which currently exist, won't exist in the future. But a managed decline, planned and structured, would see these areas returned to nature. Imagine a planet where North and South America were a nature reserve. Where Africa, Australia and Asia were emptied of people, where the UK, Ireland, Channel Islands and even most of Europe was returned to nature.

As a species, humans could exist in small pockets of the most habitable areas around the world.

That's what needs to happen. But people arw too obsessed with having children to do anything about climate change.

The hypocrisy of JSO is embarrassing.

"I'm doing this for my children's future"

Listen love, if you have children, you have NO voice when it comes to climate change. There is nothing you can do that will mitigate the damage you have caused to the planet by your utterly selfish decision to have children.

This!!

SingingNettles · 25/07/2023 21:09

TooBigForMyBoots · 25/07/2023 21:06

Oops, forgot to put expert on the list.

And, for the record, I’m not one.

Wattiss · 25/07/2023 21:09

What's with all the speech marks?

TooBigForMyBoots · 25/07/2023 21:06

HorseyMel · 25/07/2023 20:35

You replied very quickly, didn't you? So glad we have "experts" watching threads like this to jump in and give us their "facts". Reminds me of 2020........

Oops, forgot to put expert on the list.

SingingNettles · 25/07/2023 21:01

HorseyMel · 25/07/2023 20:35

You replied very quickly, didn't you? So glad we have "experts" watching threads like this to jump in and give us their "facts". Reminds me of 2020........

What the fuck? 😂

Some real nutters on this site.

Coriolise · 25/07/2023 20:52

SingingNettles · 25/07/2023 20:32

That’s not true on a global level. Regional variations exist but, on a global level, the planet is now hotter than it has been since the dawn of human civilization, and will get warmer.

No, it’s actually ever so slightly cooler now than the warmest it has been during human civilisation, which was the Holocene optimum period 8,000 to 6,000 yrs ago during the Bronze Age.

Coriolise · 25/07/2023 20:43

The solution to climate change is to STOP having children. We need to accept that vast areas of the planet need to be depopulated, as in whole continents

No, that’s not at all necessary. Birth rates are the lowest they have ever been in human history. We will be peaking and then declining by the end of the century, if the trend of the last 100yrs continues. The solution is to keep moving towards a carbon neutral lifestyle.

Coriolise · 25/07/2023 20:38

Harpings · 25/07/2023 08:09

Gosh. This thread is terrifying I had no idea the temperature could potentially rise so much.

It cant. We’d have to be way waaaay closer to the Sun to end up like Venus.

Coriolise · 25/07/2023 20:36

notol · 23/07/2023 16:20

Tech is not green or a saviour.

We need to go backwards. Which obviously doesn't really feel like an option.

Tech is what is saving us. Going backwards would be the worst thing for us and the planet.

HorseyMel · 25/07/2023 20:35

SingingNettles · 25/07/2023 20:32

That’s not true on a global level. Regional variations exist but, on a global level, the planet is now hotter than it has been since the dawn of human civilization, and will get warmer.

You replied very quickly, didn't you? So glad we have "experts" watching threads like this to jump in and give us their "facts". Reminds me of 2020........