Autumn 2024

[GloriaSmud]

So in a few weeks time (1st September), it’s the start of meteorological Autumn. TheWeatherOutlook has some early thoughts about it here and Netweather’s thoughts are here.

Chilly is ok, endless wet days/storms ~ not wanted.

@GloriaSmud husband had a nudge earlier from the marina to put out, check fenders. So we shall see.

Bit of a miserable day for most of the country. Rest of the week, from Wednesday onwards looks better.

Netweather's thoughts for the month ahead.

That's nice and depressing - wet and gloomy, followed by wet with some cold/bright snaps, more wet and gloomy, but maybe drying up towards the end of the month.

How much do trend forecasts like this change? I'm assuming the first week (or two?) are fairly reliable, but what about the third and 4th weeks?

I find netweather's forecasts, even the long range ones, way more reliable than those of the BBC!

I look at what the GFS is saying for maybe the next week (although that can get it wrong!) and take that as 'mostly reliable.' Any further ahead than that, I glance at the forecasts when it comes to long-range/the GFS but that's about it ~ the words, "confidence is low" are often used and well-noted!

Updated weather warning ~ more rain and another wet day for me!

An autumnal storm that might be on the way next week.

At the moment, it looks like it could arrive on Thursday, with the SW, south coast and S. Wales getting the worst of the wind to start with, along with more rain for most of the country.

Oh joy!

Indeed countrygirl99!

In the meantime, look what could be heading for Earth. Hopefully we'll see some Northern Lights tonight from the first CME but it looks like at the moment, most of the UK will be covered by cloud/have rain Sunday evening for when the 2nd one is forecast to hit. There's always the chance though that if the CME is as strong as they're saying, there could be some NL to see on Monday night as well, which is looking better.

Major Hurricane Kirk? Is he no longer a Captain? It needs to scaddaddle to another frontier tyvm.

Pixiedust1234

At the moment, the GFS are giving early Wednesday as when it arrives and hits the SW first. The highest winds look to be along the SW and South coasts and the south inland (sort of along the M4 corridor) and maybe parts of E. Anglia as the storm moves in that direction during the day. When it comes to rain ~ just about everyone gets hit during Wednesday into Thursday.

Wouldn't surprise me if some weather warnings come out early next week....

Kirk is this ball of fury, 174kmh winds currently!

Kirk by the time it gets to us, I don't think is a hurricane any more.
It may be wet and windy. Will it be an 1987 event, probably not, but be prepared for anything.

Metoffice have released a video about how we don't get hurricanes:

It's weird my 7 day met office forecast (SE) shows no impact of Kirk really apart from some grey cloud for a few hours early Thursday.

We've got rain, no wind

West Oxfordshire has been lovely today, bright and breezy. I've got three loads of washing dried outside, so now feel all-powerful.

I decided to clean the conservatory today, there are some plants that need to come in. After an hour I couldn't stand the heat any longer. South west facing 🌡️🥵

Yesterday was beautiful and I regret not hanging the washing out (stbx was doing "dirty" work near the line just bc he could) so was looking forward to today. And in typical fashion it has been very dark grey looking and bordering on spitting. Harrumph!!

However the threat of high winds and lots if rain incoming has made me go out and give the lawn a trim despite it not really needing it yet (snipped about an inch and half off) so at least one job has been ticked off

It's going black here after a sunny morning. Rained buckets last night.

Absolutely torrential rain here the last couple of days. Not the usually autumn rain but sudden very heavy downpours. Wonderful to listen to but not so good if you are caught outside.

Feels cold in Edinburgh with a NNE wind. My big coat was required to walk the dog

The temperature has fallen like a stone today. Last few days the heating didn't kick in. It's working hard this afternoon

Hasn't stopped raining for 48 hours here in NE England. I've just driven back from Hexham to the coast. It's carnage on the roads. I've come home rather than going to Pilates. Might light the 🔥

Visible now north west England.

Our town can't cope with this heavy rain anymore. They won't fix the drainage on the roads and the road / footpath flooding is getting worse every few months. Rain is tolerable, but having to navigate a walk home that won't get me soaked is starting to do my head in.