Prepping for a pandemic... 13

[FuckThisWind]

Sorry I couldn't find a new thread. If there is one already, I'll have this deleted.

Will get links etc brought over from last thread too.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300628?from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0 Ok people for children in universities - sign and share

What’s on people’s ‘last minute’ shopping lists??

Also for younger early years and preschool kids this blog is amazing. playhooray.co.uk/blogs/news/stuck-indoors-with-kids

@RhubarbTea I'll look at the thread you mention and see if I can add anything.

@jane just finished the order - milk, water, a little more snacks, fresh veggies - this will be my last supermarket order for the next two weeks.

He is pretty good with not touching his face, but does sometimes wipe his sweat off it, scratch an itch etc like we all do when busy and working hard.

Like i say, just panicking about the fact he's expected to work and serve 100s of people a day, some who may have corona virus or something else and if he catches it, then that poses horrible risk to me. I don't want to seem dramatic and stupid, but i could die from it and likely will die from it if i do catch it

That’s good to know about wales, thanks Jane.

My last minute shopping will probably be meat. I’ve got batch cooked meals and dried goods and I do have leftover portions of like roast chicken in the freezer too, but I think I’ll make a last minute dash to the butcher for mince and maybe whole chickens etc.

I was a primary teacher before I had DS so I second the Twinkl recommendation. The free resources are quite good. If I can be of any help to anyone, I’m happy to, but I was ks1 and early years really!

I have been digging in and knocking a few resources up with felt tips and paper this week and been playing phonics games etc with DS and forgot how much I loved it!

Sorry my post was a bit flippant in view of timing, I got distracted and when I posted the thread had moved on.

I want the schools to shut so badly, but I have 3 kids with SEN who will go stir crazy so half dreading it too. I still think that it will be Friday 20th and that the announcement tomorrow will be to prepare for it.

Thanks for pointing out about chocolate melting @BlackeyedSusan. I am thinking for the rest I can stick there, and retrieve it with the door locked, and take it out in a laundry basket - my children are Autistic and have no self regulation, so it is actually something I have to take into consideration. Normally when treats are gone they are gone.

There’s so much info on these threads I’m skimming much of it and missing a lot when multitasking - itsnotjustflu, I’m sorry to ask as you must have covered it, what’s the Monday rationale if you don’t mind repeating

I was thinking at 800 cases which might be around the same time, 3 or 4 days from now

That made me chuckle, @wheresmymojo -- well needed!

As far as the homesteading thread is concerned at this point, it kind of excludes those of us who'd like to close ourselves in and protect our families, but have to continue working

I’m in that situation. I have to go to work, my work won’t ever be cancelled but when I’m home for the day that’s it. No going anywhere else, no school, no regular activities, no socialising. Nada.

I just saw this comment on a huff post article, I’m not sure about the maths (if what the RO of Covid19 is) but it’s a compelling story they tell....

“I was asked today to explain why closing schools was a good idea, when I did they asked me to post it so here goes.
Lets us take a hypothetical 1 child in a school that is infected, it can take 6 – 41 days from contagion to death. It is highly possible you can go a week without knowing you have it.It is also an extremely contagious virus compared to other flu's, colds, and viruses

DAY 1
1 child infects a minimum of 1 more child. This means the first child and probably at least two parents/guardians/siblings are infected, and now the same for this second child
INFECTION RATE on DAY 1 = 2 kids and 4 others = 6

DAY 2
These 2 children now go to school and infect at least 1 child each, they return home that night and infect 4 parents/guardians etc.
INFECTION RATE on DAY 2 = 4 kids and 8 others = 12

DAY 3
These 4 children now go to school and infect at least 1 child each, they return home and infect at least 8 parents/guardians/siblings/friends/relations
INFECTION RATE on DAY 3 = 8 kids and 16 others = 24

DAY 4
These 8 children now go to school and infect at least 1 child each, they return home and infect at least 16 parents/guardians/siblings/friends/relations

INFECTION RATE on DAY 4 = 16 kids and 32 others = 48
DAY 5
These 16 children now go to school and infect at least 1 child each, they return home and infect at least 32 parents/guardians/siblings/friends/relations

INFECTION RATE on DAY 4 = 32 kids and 64 others = 96

SO within 1 school week we have 96 infected, if each person only infected 1 other child, from door handles, books, pens, rulers, calculators, desks, chairs, coughing, sneezing, hugging, playing, touching, etc.

Using a government statistic of approx. 1% morbidity rate, (which is much lower than any other country similar to ours, the W.H.O. states it is more like 3.6% as proved by the actual figures) that means 1 infected child in a school will lead to one death.

Now the mobidity rate is 1% but it affects the elderly worse than kids, so this means that the figures are slightly wrong in reality we have more like 50 parents or grand parents infected. BUT that is if we have only 1 infected kid. So lets say we have 2 kids then within 5 days the adult population of infectees has reached enough to mean it is more than likely to lead to one death. The current UK death rate to recovery rate is 1 dead to 3 survivng as of 11/03/2020 6 deaths and 18 fully recovered. Now we get slightly more complicated as you never seem to get more than about 80% infection as more than that means there is no one less to infect or natural immunities, so in reality we need 2 and a half kids to get to our magicall 100 adults figure, and remember if you are over 60 your morbidity rate is now 3% if its is over 70 it is 8% if you are over 80 it is 14.5%

Yes this may sound like scaremongering, yes this may sound extreme, but remember these are the OFFICIAL government figures. So should we close the schools, yes obviously, should we stop people gathering in public, yes obviously, should we self isolate as much as humanly possibly, yes obviously. Is there any reason to not do this, yes … money.

Cheltenham has just welcomed 200,000 race goers to the racecourse, if 1 person turns up and only infect 0.1% of the other race goers then we should expect at least 2 deaths from the people at the racecourse, then there are all the other deaths that they cause when they go home all over the UK and the rest of the world.

Then there are the Cheltenham Taxi drivers / busdrivers / bar staff/ hotel workers / betting shops / pubs / clubs / shops / many of whom have kids who will be going to school and being the kid on DAY 1 who infects the rest of the school.

Please repost this everywhere, we don’t need to panic, we do not need to buy every toilet roll, in the world, we do not need to destroy our country, but we do need to understand the actual maths of this problem. This is not the Flu, this is not something that will affect someone else, it will affect you, and your loved ones, and all we have to do is keep away from each other for a few weeks and the current cases will have literally died off taking the virus with them.

WE DO NOT NEED TO PANIC we can easily beat this if we are sensible, but it requires EVERYONE to be sensible“

I couldn’t find the post where someone said this:

As far as the homesteading thread is concerned at this point, it kind of excludes those of us who'd like to close ourselves in and protect our families, but have to continue working

But my apologies to them if anything I said made them feel excluded.

People who are doing precautionary low contact, even while working, will be spending more time at home as BanKittenHeels described

I’m in that situation. I have to go to work, my work won’t ever be cancelled but when I’m home for the day that’s it. No going anywhere else, no school, no regular activities, no socialising. Nada.

If you care to drop by, virtual visitors are most welcome 🏡

@Natopmt DH says stats correct but should have said mortality not morbidity

@NatoPMT, im making a cake tomorrow and dropped the carton of eggs so rushed to Asda at 11.00 pm to get some more.

There was no fruit left at all, no veg except red cabbage and Parsnips. I have never seen anything like it in Asda. Even the staff restocking were surprised.

I had the same plan as you to get fruit and veg last minute i think I'll need a plan B and C where i go to get them now

Great illustration NatoPMT I hope you’ll forgive me reposting this from another thread (would love your DHs opinion on this ):

The following information was taken from the 29 February analysis by Worldometer of the WHO-China joint mission which looked at all cases up until the point of analysis.

DEATH RATE all cases including lab confirmed, suspected and asymptomatic
80+ years old. 14.8%
70-79 years old. 8.0%
60-69 years old. 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old. 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old. 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities

My attempt to illustrate this data

So rounding and comparing - just to give a sense of the numbers no projection says everyone will get this, this is just a way to visualise percentages

0.2 is 2 in 1000 or 1 in 500 so, say a secondary school Y7-11 with an intake of 10 classes of 30 might have (1500 pupils) 3 deaths

1.3 is 13 in 1000 so Year 12 & 13 at a sixth form college of say 2,500 students might have an average of 2,500 parents in the over 50 age group. Among those 2,500 parents there might be 32 deaths, up to 32 students losing a parent.

Envisaging all of those young people having an average of 2 grandparents over 80. 2,500 Sixth form students with a total of 5,000 grandparents there might be 740 deaths of grandparents.

The very sad news of the recent death of a UK grandfather from Covid-19 included the heartbreaking information that the family cannot hold a funeral in the usual way.

For this reason I think people over 50 might want to think particularly carefully about what they can do to avoid infection.

• For this reason I think people over 50 might want to think particularly carefully about what they can do to avoid infection.*

...given I have diabetes & a heart issue, on top of being elderly,apparently, at 51. I’ve thought of fuck all else since.

I’m not going anywhere I don’t absolutely HAVE to.

I’m getting so anxious (and I don’t normally have any anxiety) I feel 🤮

I rarely seem to get a chance to post but have just skimmed the thread and feel so grateful to have such a wonderful bunch of companions in these dark times. Thanks to all the posters for all the information, tips and morale boosts. Particular thanks to the poster who contacted me with advice regarding DH’s Parkinson’s. You know who you are and you are a complete star.

@CookiesAreForEatingNotStoring - just wanted to say, I spoke to my friend who is undergoing chemo and she said the last place she worries about picking up CV is the oncology suite. She said they are so hot on hygiene she actually feels very safe there. Also it’s located alway from everyone else with a separate entrance so hopefully this will be the case for your DP too. I do hope so, I can only imagine how worried you must be.

I know a couple of you have mentioned sticking to cooked food only. I discovered today that although regular cooking destroys viruses apparently microwaving doesn’t.

Apologies if this has already been mentioned and I’ve missed it but just seen a Guardian article that says without early intervention in China there would have been 67% more cases but that if they’d acted a week earlier there would have been 66% fewer cases. Three weeks earlier would have cut the infection rate by 95%.

The lack of action by our government is mind-boggling.

Oh, and while I’m getting myself riled up - did anyone else want to throw something at the television at the announcement that the NHS would be given whatever they need to combat CV? Because I’d say what they needed was not to have been starved of resources for the last decade.

+ For this reason I think people over 50 might want to think particularly carefully about what they can do to avoid infection.

...given I have diabetes & a heart issue, on top of being elderly,apparently, at 51. I’ve thought of fuck all else since.

I’m not going anywhere I don’t absolutely HAVE to.

Amelie

DH is in his sixties, Parkinson’s, pacemaker, lymphedema. Planning on going to his hobby group tomorrow. About 15 in the class. I don’t want him to go 🙁

Did someone say Boris is announcing it 10:40 tomorrow or did I misread through exhaustion?

Thank you SingingBaboushka, I thought that might be the case too. Of all the wards, it is likely to be the cleanest. I still wish we weren’t going!

Hope everyone else here with extra worries finds some peace of mind and calm.

Well the us got very interesting -
Trump announced flight ban - starting Friday no flights from Europe. Flights from U.K. can continue. This seems madness and pointless and arbitrary re U.K.

time hanks and his wife have both been diagnosed with cv whilst in Australia.
The nba season has been suspended following cv diagnosis.

That should read Tom Hanks.

Woke up to a message a colleague has tested positive (no direct contact but others who did have symptoms).

So am now lying here thinking about how life is changing hourly. And I don’t really like it! :(

So glad my house is fully prepped,
Might just get some paint tomorrow and ear mark some weekend projects as we won’t be going out socializing for the next few weeks :)

Three weeks earlier would have cut the infection rate by 95%.

Look at the fools still claiming it's only the flu / it's boring though. They're going to treat it all as a big joke until it affects them.

Look at the vast numbers of people who'll be living on SSP peanuts for however long it takes.

Look at the antisocial behaviour rife in our schools and society.

Much as I personally want quarantines and shutdowns for my own family's safety, we have this perfect storm coming. So many people just will not be told.