Please can someone explain? Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?

[HappydaysArehere]

With all this talk of billions of pounds which we are supposed to owe if we leave and talk of continuing to pay after we leave, I am in the dark. If we walk away with no deal will we pay anything like the amounts talked about? If we are able to do that surely the EU will be big losers as well as us! I am at a loss. Grateful for your input as I am bewildered. I voted to remain but must say the shenanigans being played by the EU are showing them as more like the Mafia than a democratic institution.

@mummmy2017

With respect to payments to be made to the EU. Many of these are already committed - for example Nigel Farage’s pension. I would love to be able to renege on paying that scoundrel his pension but unfortunately don’t see how.

Other commitments are to projects.

Then there are budgetary commitments while we are still in.

And I’m sure there will be some taking account of assets like the UK stakes in the EIB.

To me it makes perfect sense. The UK cannot just leave and not pay what it should.

And yes the EU will tell us what to to pay. We have no choice because of the UK’s massive dependency on EU institutions. I’ve been through OpenSkies and Euratom but there are other aspects. It’s not just about trade in goods.

Speaking of OpenSkies I have not heard a single thing about it. Has anyone picked up that we are speaking to the Americans (as well as the EU) about it? How will planes fly on March 30 2019?

You might want remember that whatevervMEP are paid has been approved by the members states which measnhas been approved by the U.K.
And actually the U.K. has benefitted from that (salaries and pensions etc...).

So if the U.K. has an issue with that, it should have brought it to the EU and not vote for said expenses.

The EU isn’t an entity departed from the U.K. the U.K. was part of that entity and therefore is as responsible as any other member state for the costs of MEP etc etc.
Too easy to blame to EU as if we had no part to play in it, nor any influence (and the U.K. actually had a hell of a lot of influence!)

IATA boss is pressing for clarity on post Brexit air transport:

www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/291863/action-on-brexit-aviation-issues-is-pressing-iata-boss-warns-government

The basis of international aviation is bilateral air services agreements. There is no WTO agreement to fall back on. For that reason, I don’t see any alternative to a negotiated agreement.

Time is precious. The Brexit clock is ticking towards a deadline of March 2019. But the aviation deadline is earlier.

Normally passengers can book travel about a year in advance. At a minimum, the flight schedules and seat and cargo inventories must be available at least six months in advance. So that puts the airlines’ deadline at October 2018 – just 11 months from now.

Iata wants to see action across a broad spectrum of issues including:

• Finding staffing, systems and process solutions for a potential ballooning of customs transactions from 4.6 million/month to 21 million/month.

• Developing immigration solutions to efficiently deal with the millions of travellers between the UK and Europe should border control procedures become more cumbersome.

• Defining the relationship of the UK to the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA)

@RagingFemininist

Agree. Good point.

Also the U.K. has veto rights on many items. So the notion that the EC and EP have done all these things wo acquiescence from the U.K. sounds like Russian not propaganda

Also for those who think we have lost our sovereignty to the EU think again. The U.K. can veto. And Parliament is the only entity that can pass laws in the U.K. (ignoring what NI and Scotland can do). We can also opt out of stuff we don’t like - examples are the euro and Schengen.

We do get regulations from Brussels that we again are a part in developing. Example food safety.

We get directives that we need to translate into domestic law provided we have agreed them in advance. Example is TUPE.

RANT OVER.

@AgnesSkinner

So it is as bad as I thought. No, worse because I hadn’t thought about customs and border control procedures at airports. As with most things it’s not just the contract but the operational execution. Thx for reminding me.

And Thanks for posting. I’ve gone from interested to alarmed.

Would it be unfair to say this reaffirms the general perception of complete lack of organisation at DEXEU and the government?

In fact, given that airline seat inventory is released to computer reservation systems around 330 days prior to the date of departure, it could be even more imminent - end April 2018 is 11 months before we are out of EU air deals.

@AgnesSkinner

So this is what David Davis has in store for the UK?

I’ve always found David David underwhelming at best.

More news from the motor manufacturers meeting with the Commons BEIS Committee yesterday - EU may not allow VCA type approval for UK built cars. Add in potential tariffs of 10% on vehicles and 4.5% on parts, and inventory being stuck in customs and it’s looking rather messy.

@AgnesSkinner

The HONDA UK story is interesting. 1 hour of JUST IN TIME inventory. 350 trucks per day. 2 million components per day. With any border checks this becomes impossible. Costs explode.

Did you know a car seat in a typical car crosses the Channel five times before being finished and installed in a car? How does this work with border checks?

Summary: auto supply chains fall apart in anything but maintenance of the Single Market / Customs Union.

It’s likely other industries have similar issues. Aviation- Rolls Royce. BAE.

But hey. It will be fine. Don’t worry your pretty little head about it because Davis Fox and Johnson will sort it out before you know it.

Shame isn't it, that for all your back slapping about how right you are on all your points even if some are very wrong, that what ever and however I feel about the EU, I am just so thankful we are leaving, and your not going to lose your house, you just like saying it.

Please explain how you feel you can turn the vote around, so we don't leave, as it seems this train isn't stopping till the leave date, and I see no way to apply the brakes you so crave.

even if some are very wrong

Please share which points are wrong? When the CFO of Aston Martin used the phrase “semi-catastrophic” because they might have to halt production is he wrong as well? What about IATA? Are they wrong in needing to know what will happen given aviation is not covered by the WTO?

How will you STOP brexit....
It's so easy to pick point that worry you, but HOW are you going to STOP Brexit.
Becasue right now your not going to get the result you want.

Where have I said stop Brexit?

And, by the way, I’m not actually on a train, although your metaphor of a train coming to a halt on Brexit day may not be quite the vision you were striving for.

It's a journey and the next stop is Brexit, and afterwards onwards to somewhere different,

Agnes it;s not you but the way people try to dismiss reasons that made some of us vote to leave, as if only they are right, but the biggest point is missed in their need to pretend.

Sorry, which of your reasons to leave have I dismissed? Am I wrong to be concerned when core businesses are asking for clarity? Am I wrong to wonder if I will be able to book flights next spring? Am I wrong to wonder how to plan our own business activities if I don’t know if I can get staff to where they are needed?

I agree with your worries about all of it.
I just want to know how people think it can be stopped as they are dreaming, as it's happening.

It's quite simple to stop it - Parliament have to grow a spine.

I admit, it's looking pretty unlikely, but we can still have hope.

After all, Brexiteers have nothing but misguided hope that things are somehow not going to be a fucking disaster after Brexit, so why can't the Remainers have a bit of hope as well?

I agree with your worries about all of it.

Great. And you’re still looking forward to the Brexit train steaming into Chigley. The Half Man Half Biscuit version anyway.

This is a fascinating exchange. Well probably more typical.

On the one hand real concerns being expressed based on how things work. And how things might or might not work once we leave the EU.

On the other hand reasons for leaving appear baseless. @mummmy2017 I have not yet seen evidence for the accusations levied towards the EU which justify your motivation.

And sadly this is the case with the vast majority of exchanges with folks who want Brexit. It appears the conclusion is reached first and then the belief is reinforced through whatever means possible. It’s a human way of making decisions but not rational.

@mummmy2017 you asked how Brexit could be reversed.

First Brexit has not happened. Parliament has not yet decided to leave. And the EU can not impose such a decision on the British people. Much like it can’t impose any laws on us either - a Leaver myth.

So as a first step there has to be a vote. The people are not sovereign. Only Parliament is.

Second, A50 notification is a notification of an INTENT to leave subject to the UK having fulfilled its constitutional requirements to do so - A50(1).

As such the two year date is fictional: if Parliament has not voted to leave the EU then A50 lapses. I can show you a legal opinion that supports this if you want (Three Knights Opinion).

So, as a pure technical matter there is nothing to prevent the UK carrying on as a member of the EU. Happy to debate this if you have another view (and no the UK Supreme Court did not opine on this not does it have jurisdiction to do so).

Third, you might ask what would cause Parliament NOT to vote to leave the EU.

My view: a shift in public opinion. We are seeing the beginning of this already. Indeed we have seen for the past three months more people saying leaving was a bad idea than a good idea. It is weak (4 to 6%) and has not been sustained for long enough though. So time is required to bed this trend in and see it more pronounced for politicians to act upon it.

When and if this happens- I think it will as people realise the abject failure this is becoming - then Labour will swing to be the Remain party.

Now it is possible that Labour does this before people change their minds in particular as a hedge against this cliff edge insanity that extremist Tories want to have happen. This would accelerate the process in my view as more people realise that Brexit is not done and dusted.

What of Corbyn? I think he wants to be PM more than he cares about the EU ... His Marxist views are a disaster but I think they can be contained.

What of May? Her govt will fall. Soon. Who will replace? No clue.

Your kidding yourself, the EU say now we have Trigger Article A50 it's happening.
Labour won't stop it do you know why... because it was their members who voted as well as the Tory's, you kid yourselves if it helps but it's going to happen, there is no way Labour want to be in charge at the present moment, and the Tory's will carry on to the leave date.
I really do think people are like children , they don't want it so expect something to come along and stop the nasty Brexit happening...
If it's not May in charge just who do you think is going to step forward to lead the party, which ever way a PM turns someone is upset and none of the MP's want to become another Ed Miliband, stealing the leadership and committing political suicide.

There are many reason I and Blooming Glad we are leaving, all small things that have added up over the last 5 years, each one is silly and small to Olivia, but in the end 17 Million people thought that same as me,,, so maybe the corruption is just the straw that broke the back of the EU in my eyes, one day your going to see that what I said is right,,, no deal, and lets work from there... Oh by the way did you read the bit about the planes can still fly, we can still go on holiday and there will still be food in the shops....

@mummmy2017

Your kidding yourself, the EU say now we have Trigger Article A50 it's happening.

Uh no. Actually, Tusk and Juncker are saying the door is always open. And technically on our side we can easily stay in if we want.

When you make a statement that is meant to be fact: please show me.

Labour won't stop it do you know why... because it was their members who voted as well as the Tory's, you kid yourselves if it helps but it's going to happen, there is no way Labour want to be in charge at the present moment, and the Tory's will carry on to the leave date.

Well I do agree with you here. Labour is not a courageous lot.

I really do think people are like children , they don't want it so expect something to come along and stop the nasty Brexit happening...

Disagree here. There is a substantial amount of activity I'm seeing to prevent Brexit from going forward. It's not just hope; there is action.

If it's not May in charge just who do you think is going to step forward to lead the party, which ever way a PM turns someone is upset and none of the MP's want to become another Ed Miliband, stealing the leadership and committing political suicide.

Agree. Don't know.

There are many reason I and Blooming Glad we are leaving, all small things that have added up over the last 5 years, each one is silly and small to Olivia, but in the end 17 Million people thought that same as me,,, so maybe the corruption is just the straw that broke the back of the EU in my eyes, one day your going to see that what I said is right,,, no deal, and lets work from there...

Possibly. But I don't see any reason that these should risk our standard of living. And I hate to say it: but many of your perceptions are wrong. You have not backed any up by facts or research. Like many humans, you reach a conclusion and then look for information to back that up. It's the way the mind works, but it should be the reverse.

Oh by the way did you read the bit about the planes can still fly, we can still go on holiday and there will still be food in the shops....

I did not. It would be great news. Please point me to your source.

URRRR WTO we can Trade, so Food can be paid for and delivered.

Planes the Aviation Board have said it, pretty sure they are the ones flying the planes

Holidays Oh no the EU is the only place in earth apart from the UK...

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-uk-regret-leaving-jean-claude-juncker-state-of-the-union-a7944046.html
URRR he said we are going as well....

Olivia we disagree of course you keep telling me YOU THINK I AM WRONG.... doesn't mean I am, just you think I am

@mummmy2017

So here are a few links which expressly state the door is open. The link you provided relates to an expression of sadness that we are leaving; nothing to do with whether we can stay.

first link

second link

third link

fourth link

I'll reply to your other points shortly.

@mummm2017

URRRR WTO we can Trade, so Food can be paid for and delivered.

This is where I believe you are incorrect.

Under ANYTHING but Single Market and Customs Union membership, there will be border procedures on the way into the UK and into the EU.

Since we will not be under the regulatory sphere of the EU, there will be a need to prove that goods we export satisfy sanitary and phyto sanitary requirements.

The UK will have the same vis a vis goods coming in.

Whether we are under WTO rules or some form of FTA this will need to be done.

Which means: testing in the country of origin, certification (if recognised; if under WTO certification may not be recognised), and testing at the border.

What this means is: time. Lots of it. We will need to not only deal with food but millions of other items per day. Our trade going thru border procedures will quadruple. Overnight.

And what happens if foods sits around in a port? it rots.

So food is a real problem.

Show me an analysis that says otherwise.

Planes the Aviation Board have said it, pretty sure they are the ones flying the planes

Show me the document.

Maybe planes can fly domestically NOT to / from the US and / or EU. This is governed by the Open Skies Agreement summarised here.

Holidays Oh no the EU is the only place in earth apart from the UK...

Don't care about holidays. There will be passport queues longer than usual. Couldn't care less.