Please can someone explain? Will we pay if we leave EU without a deal?

[HappydaysArehere]

With all this talk of billions of pounds which we are supposed to owe if we leave and talk of continuing to pay after we leave, I am in the dark. If we walk away with no deal will we pay anything like the amounts talked about? If we are able to do that surely the EU will be big losers as well as us! I am at a loss. Grateful for your input as I am bewildered. I voted to remain but must say the shenanigans being played by the EU are showing them as more like the Mafia than a democratic institution.

@mummmy2017

Just so we are clear: This will be the first time in history that a country negotiates worse trade deals than it currently has with everyone.

EU goes from SM/CU with no procedures to FTA or WTO will onerous precedures

Rest of World: goes from FTAs and enhanced trade agreements to WTO rules

Please help me understand how worse trade deals lead the UK to benefit. I don't get it.

What is the Aviation Board? Pretty sure it’s the Civil Aviation Authority in charge in the UK

No - there is no agreement on what will happen to flights. Davis has already said the UK will leave the ECAA which gives the UK rights to overfly / land / refuel etc in 44 countries and governs the EU agreements such as Open Skies. We also leave the EASA with approves aircraft parts manufactured in the UK.

It’s another complication which will take a long time to sort out.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/european-common-aviation-area-ecaa-brexit-explained

Olivia your links are all from JUNE, a week is a long time in Politics.
Your hoping , that's all this is, wishful thinking on your part to stay.

The link I posted was from was not hearsay, but Junkier saying we are going and what he will do afterwards, you have to stop grasping at straws, this is happening, it will happen, your not going to find the UK backing down, Millions want it, and can't wait for it to happen, and not knocking you but for every doom and gloom there is an oppersite report of how it's does have silver linings.

Your looking at this from the point you would like it to stop, reality is that it is happening.. and you have to work from there.

Agnes, thanks for the link about flying, much happier now, as it says we can Rejoin as a Non EU member, or there is a fall back agreement we can use.

Food rotting, oh yes, so the Country of origin doesn't get paid, as food never arrived.... are you sure they won't mind growing and not getting paid...

Passport delays, mean you decide not to go to EU, EU lose BILLIONS in Summer 2019 as people wait to book, or go somewhere else, and if your going on Business, maybe meetings will be held by video, just for the summer.

@mummmy2017

I don't see that the date matter much, but here's Tusk saying it again recently even though the EU has nothing to do with a decision of the UK to ultimately remain. it does show we are welcome.

TUSK

The link I posted was from was not hearsay, but Junkier saying we are going and what he will do afterwards, you have to stop grasping at straws, this is happening, it will happen, your not going to find the UK backing down, Millions want it, and can't wait for it to happen, and not knocking you but for every doom and gloom there is an oppersite report of how it's does have silver linings.

Let's just say millions don't want this either and my view is it will not happen. We can disagree on this as these are not facts.

@AgnesSkinner

Thanks. Learned a lot from this post.

@mummmy2017

Let me just say it this way.

There's a shit ton to do and it ain't gettin done. If it ain't gettin done, Brexit ain't gettin done.

mummmy did you read the link properly? Spain will object to the UK rejoining the ECAA and the Brexiteers are unlikely to accept it anyway as it falls under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

It’s really not at all straightforward to try and replicate using individual bilateral agreements.

There is an older agreement we can use, so we can still fly, it says so in your link
Spain, will object, and lose out, and be made to back down by 26 other countries.
It's not just a case of us wanting to fly, is it, other countries need to have our planes land, so do your really think this won't get sorted even if it's a botch job till other bits can be agreed...

The Chicago Convention is way more restrictive than what we enjoy now.

I like the way you think Spain would cave to pressure - nothing like a bit of hope over expectation when it comes to Brexit.

Food rotting, oh yes, so the Country of origin doesn't get paid, as food never arrived.... are you sure they won't mind growing and not getting paid...

Which will then be the last time anyone sells anything to the UK. Have you ever worked in a commercial context? Tried to buy/sell products in bulk at the best conditions. People are not going to want to sell to someone who lets produce rot due to their own inefficiencies then reneges on payment. Why bother when there are others who will actually pay?

@Melassa

Or the buyer will not buy again. Depends on who is responsible for what at what stage of the sales process - called INCOTERMS.

INCOTERMS

Trade is complex. My guess is @mummmy2017 doesn't like all this detail and believes everything will just be fine?

Yes Olivia, I neglected that it might be the UK the country of origin not receiving payment. I had assumed Mummy was thinking more of a foreign supplier who should be grateful to supply Almighty Albion time and time again without seeing a penny. The concept would of course be equally valid for shortbread going mouldy at Dover.

Olivia, yes, I am being facetious and over simplifying, but having had similar conversations recently I have lapsed to primary teacher on steroids mode.

@Melassa

Good point.But not what I meant.

You can sell goods anywhere from ExWorks where the buyer assumes responsibility, freight, insurance at the seller's gates out to Delivered Duty Paid where the Seller takes over the delivery, clearance, insurance, duty payment process. Then there is stuff in between like FOB.

I don't know how food is sold, but I can't imagine many EU food producers wanting to take on clearance risk in Dover ...

40% of the UK's food is imported ...

Guess wrong, in trade and do understand it,,, more than you do.

Most people are paid to Deliver the goods to the Door of the warehouse, they will know there will be delays and it is upto them to sort this, logistics, it's not blind faith it business, your incredible naive if you think people will stop selling to the UK, I mean just how are they going to find markets to sell these goods, and if the markets are there to take up this MASS amount of goods, why are they not being traded with right now.

More back slapping, from Oliva, we can get fresh food from places other than the EU, your so into the small details to try to prove points you can't see that there could be ways round it, till the 27 revolt... and the EU decide maybe they do need to do something, after all your really thing we will NEVER trade with the EU after Brexit...

@mummmy2017

You're way out of your depth here sorry. Most are not under DDP. List below of the four most commonly used INCOTERMS.

Yes, actually, I do think if commerce is too hard, countries will stop selling certain things to us from the EU. You see our market is 65 m people and theirs is 450m. It's much easier for a producer to open an SM/CU market than one with painful SPS certification.

FOB (Free On Board )

This means that the goods remain in the possession of the seller. The seller is responsible to bear all costs until the goods are loaded to the ship on the port of the seller. Once the goods are loaded on to the ship, the sellers is no more responsible for any costs and liability of charges. The ownership of the goods at this stages transfers from the seller to the consignee. If you are importing from China, this is the most common type of contract generally accepted by the suppliers i.e. exporters or sellers.

EXW (Ex Works)

EXW means Ex works. The seller makes the goods available at their place of work such as factory or warehouse. It is the buyer responsibility to arrange for the transportation of the goods from the seller’s place to the port and then onward shipment.

CFR ( Cost and Freight)

This means that the seller is responsible for transporting the goods until the destination port. The seller bears all the charges of shipment until the goods arrive at the importer’s port. However, the seller is not responsible for any loss or damage, which occurs in transit.

CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight)

This is similar to CFR. The difference is that the seller agrees to purchase insurance to cover for any loss or damage during transit.

@mummmy2017

I think you should go out into the real world and experience how things are done. The UK is a great country.

But if it's harder to sell to us than a neighbour then that is what EU producers will do.

Or ... Tesco and Sainsbury's are just going to have to get very very good at managing customs clearance. So Grimsby has said they don't want to pay for that. I don't.

Are you going to pay then?

Yes, sorry, I do of course know that (or I should, with my job! ).

For food I think it depends on what type of foodstuffs, but in any case on the odd occasion I have had to deal with customs clearance (non food) the goods have to be paid for even if the seller is organising the DDP and the goods get stuck in customs. The only exception to that would be a customs seizure due to flagrant misrepresentation of the goods on the seller's part, but even then if the seller is asked to do so by the buyer it will often be written in that the buyer pays in any case, or payment will be in advance with eventual fines/tariffs being covered by the buyer.

@mummmy2017

So I suppose you're going to tell the fishermen of Grimsby that they are wrong about customs clearance?

GRIMSBY

@mummmy2017

And I get you believe food import from non-EU third countries can just sail through without a Border Inspection Post having a 'little look' at some SPS certificates and testing?

I would love to live in Brexit Unicorn Land. But I don't. Please send me directions though.

OLIVA get real...

We won't buy if we know it's not going to get delivered, so the food can rot, we can arrange frozen from other places, as to the EU not selling to us. ha ha, wetting myself laughing at the 27 sticking to that one.

Your personal views to justify your hopes , may make sense to you to the world of commerce doesn't work like that, if people see a gap in the market they plug it.

We have a whole growing season plus for farmers to gear up, and they are making big plans to CASH in on this market.

Do you really think they won't stock up on non perishable goods, and that the supplies won't be willing to help them. Running a business as I do, I really do know about supply and demand... maybe you should read up on that, and not just the bullet points, you so like to use.

Mummy it's not Olivia's opinions, it's real life I'm afraid. And lol at the EU 27 revolting. Remember the courgette shortage in the UK this summer? Part of that was producers preferring to sell the crop to their domestic market or their neighbours in € rather than to the UK supermarkets in the much diminished £ at the ridiculously low pricing UK supermarkets demand.

Grimsby was a remainer, like you, wanting a special deal , like you.

Of course the media will lap up any think like this, we import so much because we aren't allowed to fish our own seas. This will change and we will fish our own seas and eat uk caught fish, oh look a new marketing opportunity, or are you now saying the amount of fish we catch won't rise.