Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left *[title amended]

[Plump82]

What's people's thoughts on this - is it scare mongering?
My main holiday isn't for another wee while but are we going to see disruptions/cancellations to rival COVID times?

• [Title amended at OP's request to make it clear that news reports are referring to jet / aviation fuel]

We are going on a package holiday to the Balearics in August with Tui. Our one holiday of the year. I will be so upset if it gets cancelled.

This is quite interesting

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/holiday-fuel-shortage-cancel-flights-b2955834.html

We have got a trip booked to Croatia in august which we haven’t got booked as a package which would have offered more protection. This article states that airlines have obligation to find you an alternative flight so that gives me some reassurance that we will get there!
I still need to sort out travel insurance but as pp said, I don’t think that will help. Will just have to remain hopeful.

You haven't paid attention to news about jet fuel because you're not planning on flying this year??? I can't believe you said this.

We've got no holiday plans yet, but I'm absolutely aware that a lot of the food we eat, products we use and in particular some of my medications are flown in from abroad. I'm worried about supply chains.

I’m American and yeah, loathe him for so many reasons. 😞😡

we are meant to fly back to the US for my sister’s wedding in September. Although it is minor in the grand scheme of things I hope we will be able to go. But she is a Trump supporter so seemingly she would understand if we can’t. 😑

Re flights being rescheduled- we got delayed in Sri Lanka in March as our return flight went through Qatar - we would still be there if we had relied on British airways to reschedule our flight.

We have spent £4,500 on a holiday to Cancun in June -if it’s cancelled do we get refunded ? It’s a package holiday with TUI -I feel really anxious now

The last paragraph of the BBC report says - Dutch airline KLM said it will cancel 160 flights in Europe in the coming month due to rising fuel costs.
It said this was less than 1% of its European fights, adding it was not experiencing a shortage of jet fuel.

There isn't an awful lot of food flown into the UK - only luxury things like asparagus etc. and a lot of cut flowers. If this were affecting marine fuel I would be really worried but that would be extraordinarily unlikely as shipping is more versatile on fuel grade.

I'm not sure how many medicines come by air rather than sea/land. There is probably scope to change how most things are transported even if they come by air at the moment. I would not be worried at all about goods at this stage (unless you make your living in air freight)

Hardly any food is flown into Britain - it's generally out of season, luxury items - like green beans from Kenya in January.

The vast majority of imported food comes by rail and sea.

@deplorabelle

I'm not sure how many medicines come by air rather than sea/land

Can't give you the percentage of the inbound UK total but I do know at one time some Long Haul passenger flights would routinely carry 5 -10 tonnes of medical pharma from places like some cities in the Indian sub-continent in the hold.

A lot of that cargo was subject to fairly strict temperature control limits and had tight time restrictions on effectively a travel before date and/or allowable time en-route.

I don't think switching that type of cargo over to surface transport is feasible.

I thought this too. It’s almost inevitable that there will be a knock on effect on the price of electricity, but there are alternative ways to generate electricity so it probably won’t be impacted as much as the price of petrol/diesel.

I hope! Let’s face it, if it is we’re all screwed.

@FernandoSor I don't know what the percentages are, and I appreciate we can all survive without Kenyan beans in January, but Ed Balls did a fascinating series a few years ago called something like "What Britain Buys and Sells in a Day". One of the episode was about food and showed commercial passenger flights coming in from SE Asia with tons of fresh and frozen food, particularly fish, aboard. Until then I'd had no idea that passenger flights carried food.

It takes roughly the same time to get from Glasgow to London by train as it does from my part of Cornwall, and I've gone on lots of rail holidays via St Pancras. It makes an Interrail pass really good value because your UK outbound and inbound travel is all included .

Yep, most passenger flights carry goods in the hold in addition to passenger baggage.

But the amount of freight brought into the country by air, and particularly the amount of food, is minuscule - only 1% of total imports by weight comes in by air. That's all imports, not just food (which is only a small fraction of that 1%).

The vast majority of food comes in by sea, and by rail (3000 lorries per day on Eurotunnel).

1% of total uk imports by weight are by air.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/transport-statistics-great-britain-2025/transport-statistics-great-britain-2024-freight

I'm not saying it's nothing, and a big crunch in aviation will cause shortages and definitely price rises but I think there's some resilience there (ultimately long term they can and will switch manufacturing if needed).

The situation in more remote parts of the world will be much more concerning though.

I didn’t ring the emergency number. It wasn’t an emergency. I called the claim line and was, as always, sent round in circles and referred to the website.

I hope (!) the emergency line is answered.

You are o doubt right about the food percentage but some items simply can't be replaced.close at hand so that 1% could be critical (especially time critical goods such as pharma and some perishables.

Next time anyone is at an international airport where they can actually see the loading process of a Long Haul flight it might be worth taking time to watch.

They'll see passenger bags mostly go in the form of the contents of aluminium containers...but often towards the rear of the aircraft you'll see trailers/dollies loaded with contents often under nets, or really large single containers...that's the belly freight.

If it’s a package holiday, it’s usually ATOL protected, so you should be ok.

We had a holiday cancelled over Easter as the flight was via Doha. Qatar cancelled our flight mid March, and we received the refund a couple of weeks ago.

It’s worth keeping an eye on advice from Simon Calder, who’s a travel journalist if you’re still worried.

That's alright.
As I said on another thread, great excuse not to do a duty visit to an elderly (formerly abusive) parent in another country. Great.

I need to fly to Europe in November

Can anyone who is experienced with these things tell me how the current uncertainties about aviation and probably any fuel prices might impact school planning school trips abroad next year? Our school takes students to a range of places in Europe and further afield each year including by plane and coach.
Can school even realistically cost up such travel at this point in time?

Agreed, it's stuff like pharma and often time-sensitive replacement parts and components for critical equipment.

Bring back the Rosyth to Zeebrugge ferry! Oh well, looks like the Dunkerque route is going ahead, isn't it? 🤷‍♀️ 🤞