Westminstenders: Election Special

[RedToothBrush]

Spreadsheet of declaration times from 2017 by constituency

sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/10/an-hour-by-hour-guide-to-election-night/
Key constituencies by declaration time to help you understand what might be going on

yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
YouGov MRP

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
List of seats by marginality and party targeting them

Deborah Meaden @Deborahmeaden
Rumours Dominic Raab may be in trouble? Possibly Theresa May ?

OK now I'm going to start spraying salt everywhere like a gritter... No pinches left to give

Tory insiders are telling me Boris Johnson could “genuinely be in trouble in #UxbridgeAndSouthRuislip”.

Anyone else imagining him cowering in his fridge when they tell him that?

@pinboard

Actually no, better question:

People who were following GE2017 closely, was the result becoming clear by this point in the evening? Or was it a surprise at the exit poll? (I didn't dare look until 5 mins before exit poll.)

I do a spot of matched betting, just needed an election bet and the conservatives would have made me most profit but I couldn't bare putting money on them. Went with one on lib dems seat estimates.

Heard quite a lot of labour voters at work today, even those who had been flip flopping or earning over 80k. The Tory voters are louder but not as many. I have a tiny bit of hope for the first time, probably misplaced though

That's terrible pinboard I'm so sorry

Am I just driving myself to madness by trying to work out how it's going from Twitter? Half of it's "massive turnout, Tories panicking, real fears BJ might lose his seat" and the other half is "low turnout, really bleak for Labour, all the NE is going Tory."

All of the above is possible.

Massive turnout in Remain metropolitan areas that favour London already.

Low turnout in North that favours tories in read strongholds.

And this is largely in line with predictions...

Putney and Chipping Barnet going red tallies with Tories less than + 11
Putney is where my DD is at uni. She says LOTS of her friends are voting Labour. Unfortunately she couldn't, because they said she wasn't "on the list."

Well done LibDem supporters. I'm proud of you. You have proven me wrong and for that I thank you!

Just read your post @NotYourTypicalNerd. Well done your ds! Up the aspies! You can't fool them! Mother of aspie dd.

Does anyone know when the results for Uxbridge are likely to come in? I so want to hear that Johnson has lost his seat 🤞🤞🤞

Thank you to all for these amazingly informative threads. So many useful links to follow (and not enough time to read them all!). And a few funnies to lighten the mood (DGR, I'm looking at you especially). These threads are still my go-to place - they are a gateway to such a range of information.

pinboard have some .

pin I don't know what to say. I'm sorry :(

Meanwhile, in other news:

A Christmas tree was delivered to our village (in Argyll & Bute) and was discovered to be rotten, so people were dispatched to saw it into pieces, whilst a new tree was hastily delivered.

Needless to say the workers busily sawed the new tree into a million bits and left it beside the old one, which by this time was lying on its side next to the harbour.

Eventually the rotten tree was also sawed into a million bits and a request for a third tree was dispatched to Mission Control (Trees (Christmas) Dept.

The third tree was proudly erected on the night the village saw a Force 9,000,000 gale and the top half fell off.

However, undeterred, the villagers have decorated what remains of their third (and hopefully final) tree.

@JustAnotherPoster00 and @pinboard

I feel you, don't give up

stinky I know what you mean.

I'm full of pride for all our young people who ain't taking it lying down and are going out there and making their vote count.

and booze and chocolate and crisps.

Thank you!

Sorry to lower the tone, but I just remembered how an imminent exit poll is very good for queues for the loo.

Sam McBride @SJAMcbride
Some major 5pm turnout increases in South Belfast compared to 2017. Box in Donegall Pass is 46% (up from 31%). Box in Lough Moss is 36% (up from 23%). Others I've seen are less dramatic, but the trend is definitely up on 2017. Rule of thumb: 5pm % will double by 10pm. #NIturnout

Sam McBride is working off official polling station numbers

Recent Seat history:

In 2010, Sinn Féin opted not to stand against the SDLP to avoid splitting the nationalist vote. This effort was successful as the SDLP won the seat with a majority of 6,000. This was the seat in which the Alliance Party had their second-best showing, polling 15% of the votes. Alasdair McDonnell retained the seat in May 2015, with only 24.5% of the vote. This is the smallest proportion of the vote a winning candidate has ever achieved in a UK general election.

In 2017 the seat was won by Emma Little-Pengelly of the DUP with Alasdair McDonnell losing his seat along with all other SDLP MPs in Northern Ireland

Sinn Fein are not standing.

RED

Eltham is likely to be Labour, has been for quite a while and Clive Efford is a good MP. Hoping it stays red. There were some angry leavers though, so who knows. 🙏🙏🙏

< dashes in with boot heels screeching to brake >

Just back from our team Christmas do
(which I organised - I suspect when I retire next year the lads won't have one in 2020)

I must remember you're all an hour behind Germany < breathes again >

After all the predictions, an unexpectedly large turnout may be a confounding factor - but I'm not sure in which direction, or whether the votes are piling up where they won't make a difference

I'm still expecting a 30-40 Tory majority though

Betting odds change if a lot of people put a bet on a particular outcome, such as a hung Parliament
So we can't go much by those new odds

Uxbridge declared at 4.30am in 2017.

🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
I'm praying to every saint I can think of...