Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

Is this what it’s going to be like on the 13th?

Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford

YouGov analysis suggests we could be saying goodbye to the following MPs:

Labour: Skinner, Flint, Cruddas, Hayman, Laird

Conservatives: Goldsmith

Lib Dem: Umunna, Berger, Gyimah, Wollaston, Lee, Sandbach

Independents: Grieve, Gauke, Soubry

From @centrist_phone on Twitter:

The yougov MRP includes a LOT of old data - it's only representative of the last couple of weeks taken as an average.

The trend over the last 7 days in the MRP data collection has been a sharp correction that favours Labour, as below:

t.co/MZKZXOM9eW

And now I know why:

The data from the YouGov MRP collected over the last 7 days shows positive movement to Labour on each day.

The gap between Con/Lab narrowed by 4.3% over this period.

The Tory manifesto launch and 'antisemitism crisis' day did not stop this trend.

END t.co/AhjalYzA3o

Matt Chorley @MattChorley
This was the model which predicted the hung parliament in 2017.

CAVEAT #1: The projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent in at least 30 seats predicted to be Conservative.

CAVEAT #2: This was taken over the past week. Two weeks to go yet

Sam Coates Sky
@SamCoatesSky
·
4m
YouGov / Times MRP

How the seats changed hands

Con Gains
Lab to Con: 44
LD to Con: 2

LD gains
Lab to LD: 1
Con to LD: 3

SNP Gains
Con to SNP: 2
Lab to SNP: 5
LD to SNP: 1

Take heart. There's still all to play for. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics.

Nah, not having that poll at all.

LOVE the dog though!

However, the projected margins of victory are below 5 per cent in at least 30 seats predicted to be Conservative. YouGov cautions that a fall from the present Tory national poll lead of 11 percentage points to less than 7 could yet deny Mr Johnson a majority.

Shit.

At least the tories have to own Brexit if they win.

This is Brexit via FPTP.

percentages

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-2)
BREX: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

via
@SavantaComRes
, 25 - 26 Nov
Chgs. w/ 21 Nov

Urgh. Wish I'd stayed asleep

And heres the yougov detail (with constituency by constituency detail)

yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=MRP_26_Nov_2019

If the polls are right - they can pretty much do what they want!

Traditional labour voters who vote for the Tories will feel it the most.

They will only get 5 years I'm sure, but boy will they reek destruction in that 5 years.

looks like my constituency is a flipper...

Con majority of sixty effing eight.

Grieve loses his seat and Johnson keeps his?

I think the fight in me is finally fading

I have finally given up on this batshit-insane, self-destructive, unthinking country

Can someone explain why there would be such a swing from Corbyn to Johnson since 2017?

Just checked a couple of seats I know well
and my response is

BOLLOCKS
If those four stay Tory I'll posy my home postcode

I can't see it if I'm honest.....

No seats to BXP. I still can't see any voting for Tory over BXP in strong labour areas.

Totally Gutted.

There's a few toss-ups. How do they allocate them?

Some decent news there. Marginal Lincoln leaning Labour. Marginal Bedford a toss up. St Albans to go LD