Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

There are loads of constituencies where the conservatives get over 50% of the vote.

My very ill ds is already being massively failed by the NHS. Now I've lost hope.

Mine is Safe Tory, apparently.
My parents is Safe Labour, ironically

I knew I shouldn't have looked. I just don't understand.

I think the fight in me is finally fading

I know it's hard but now is the time to fight even harder. A lot of tory voters may look at that and - of the weather's bad on the 12th - think 'oh well we'll win anyway' and stay inside.
Everyone else's refusal to not vote no matter how awful the weather to try and soften the tory majority could make all the difference. Especially if enough people vote tactically.

I know it's been posted a million times on these threads- but anyone, especially lurkers, who haven't checked out the compare the tacticals website, please do and find out which is the smartest way to keep a tory out in your constituency - and hold your nose and vote for them.

comparethetacticals.com/

Everyone don't give up hope and don't go down without a fight!

I can't see jo swinson's seat

They will only get 5 years I'm sure, but boy will they reek destruction in that 5 years.

Well, something will start to reek.

Haven't been able to follow the thread today so apologies, as I'm sure this has been discussed, but what effect, if any, do you think the Corbyn press conference re USA trade deal has/will have? I'm assuming a lot, if not all, of those polled would have been asked before this happened?

Is Greta giving up ?
Are us old fogies so weak that one poll sets us back
FFS
its not even real data
its statistical extrapolation and lies
SHAKE YOUR ARSE
EVERY HOUR COUNTS AND THERE ARE MANY HOURS BETWEEN NOW AND 10PM on 12TH DECEMBER

Swindon seat is a toss up

Swinson !

Swinsons seat is officially lean LD. Very close

fed normally its autocorrect. This time its just poor spelling.

I blame my Scottish education - sorry pretty

Thanks pretzels and listening I needed that. Will try and stay positive.

Totally agree, Pretzels.

I spent all today phoning voters across the UK who are planning to vote tactically.

I salute their heroism and draw strength from it.

And tomorrow I'll be canvassing.

I won't stop.

I can't.

There's too much at stake.

Sam Coates saying "how the seats changed hands."

Disingenuous much!

Presumably he's done it deliberately, but fgs!

.

The LibDem's have fucked up! Again!

And no I'm not ignoring the Labour prediction.

THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT

The choir are already singing
talk to the nave

jump out of your FB / Instagram / Twitter bubbles
engage with your local news BTL comments
do not argue
Onion peel the arguments
one layer at a time

do not react to the eejits
just place doubt in their minds
slow down the comments

it can be done
but we have to each go out of our echo chambers for an hour a day
I get a bucket load of that at work and met an 80 year old elected Tory who I've moved from "get Brexit done" to "its all mad"-

Labour Leave voters now voting The Brexit Party is helping the Tories. Hopefully there will be more Remain tactical voting after this.

Pretzels Listening

Yes, all it takes for evil to flourish is for good people to do nothing.
We must all keep trying in any small way we can. It's not over yet.

I too find hope fading fast, but I hang on to the thought that even on the morning of the American election the polls predicted a clean sweep for Clinton.

I really can't understand the support for the Tory's, is everyone thick as pig shit? Their policies are shit, Boris is a misogynistic, adulterous, lying, racist and an all round embarrassment to our country, who cannot string a coherent sentence together. Who the fuck is voting for him? &

(sigh) I now expect all of below to come true:

BJ as PM for at least 5 yrs**
BJ triumph by getting a solid majority
Cliff edge Brexit at end of 2020
The smirking of ERG, JRM, Cummings etc.
Me having a Tory MP in future
Corbyn somehow hanging on as Labour Leader anyway
Increased sectarian violence in Norn

I lean towards ** as the worst single item, but really it's all shite.