Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

So to date DH and I have had 20 LD leaflets through the door since October.

We've just had another 3.

I think the LDs environmental creditials are somewhat in question here.

Obviously the LD algorithm has identified that we are both perfect to be LD voters.

I won't be voting LD.

I've now spoken to 5 LD members in my constituency. Every single one is voting Labour. Including the one who is a local Councillor.

Prediction: The LDs are going to have a nightmare is some places they expect to do well. This constituency was supposed to be a target seat. They performed better at the last General than in most areas and got their deposit back. This time it looks like they will get less percentage than last and may struggle to get their deposit.

The constituency has been quietly dropped as a target and not a single LD sign has been sighted in what is normally LD central for signs at election time. Not even a sign at the Cross roads where there is always a sign for every party (so far only Labour have one up). I've also seen only a single solarity Conservative sign. Again there are normally loads. It's always been a Labour / CON marginal but the LDs have done well on occasions and always do well in locals. They appear to be being squeezed MORE than last time - precisely because it is a marginal.

This part of the constituency is a LD / CON remain area. Its always got high turnout. Yet the lack of enthusiasm and active campaigning is something else.

Maybe there are a lot more shy Tories than usual. But there are quite clearly a lot of very pissed off and concerned LDs here too who don't appear to be towing the party line and will vote tactically instead.

Will be interesting to see the result. I think it will be tighter here than the YouGov MRP is suggesting tbh.

I know there are some people involved in canvassing on here. Lewis Goodall (Sky News) is asking on twitter for activists' accounts from the doorstop.

I’m really not comfortable with the way bellini is being treated.

And as a Jew, I'm really not comfortable with the way Corbyn is being treated and anti-Semitism being used for political ends. So I suppose that's just tough on all of us isn't it?

I've also seen only a single .. Conservative sign.

I have noticed that the farmers who always let the old Tory party put out signs on farmland by the side of busy roads seem less keen on advertising support of the new ERG breed of Tory.

Perhaps they have realised that the farmer's weekly has a point when it says that the ERG ‘no-deal’ Brexit would give a £850m hit to British farming?

We’ve had one LibDem leaflet and nothing else. Clearly everyone here is resigned to their Tory fate. The incumbent MP is so complacent he’s not even canvassing.

We're in a safe Tory seat and we've had one Tory leaflet and our 24 year old son has had a leaflet sent to him personally from the Labour candidate.

I've not seen any posters anywhere.

We got our polling cards last week, and have had a Tory leaflet and Labour leaflet. The Labour one has no mention of Brexit whatsoever - supporting my initial thoughts that the election has moved beyond Brexit. Which might be a problem for the Tories, if Brexit is all they have to offer

By the way, I bit my tongue long enough, but have to question the attitude of at least one poster on this thread that they feel they now have to change their mind and support Leave "because they won" ? I may have misread, so have disarmed the sarcasm cannon. But it seems an odd bit of rationalisation. It's like saying "Well, I voted Green, but because the Tories won, I now have to vote for them in future".

I've had a few labour leaflets (they started before the GE was called) but not many. Something from the lib dems but I'm not sure what - they didn't seem to name a candidate. A leaflet from the brexit party central and from the Leeds West candidate telling me to vote for him (I don't live in Leeds West - and whilst it might be the next constituency over, I don't live near the boundary) the brexit party is not standing in my constituency at all. Slow hand clap for their campaigning skills. Really putting in the time, effort and money where it will count the most

I've had nothing from the tories and I haven't seen much in the way of signs or any tory presence. His majority is 331. I'd be trying harder if I were him.

Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage will be empty-chaired in tonight's climate change debate if they refuse to take part, Channel 4 has confirmed.

I can still recall watching Derek Jarmans "Sebastiane" on Channel 4 in the 80s. Possibly the only feature film every made in Latin (there are a lot of oiled male nudes, from memory ...)

So Channel 4, still pushing the envelope 36 years on ....

And as a Jew, I'm really not comfortable with the way Corbyn is being treated and anti-Semitism being used for political ends. So I suppose that's just tough on all of us isn't it?

No I don’t think it has to be ‘tough’. I think you could just accept someone has a different perspective. Browbeating Bellini won’t change anything politically which is where your beef really is.

The mileage being made of AS is annoying but Corbyn has brought it on himself. A more intelligent man, a more astute operator and better leader wouldn’t have got himself into this mess.

A more intelligent man, a more astute operator and better leader wouldn’t have got himself into this mess.

Absolutely the ineffective, unelectable, careerist politician Corbyn should promise tax cuts to the rich, be blatantly racist, mysogynistic and homophobic, he should bumble more when he speaks and lets be honest his lying game needs a lot of work and rightly then the media would be eating out of his hand

Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage will be empty-chaired in tonight's climate change debate if they refuse to take part, Channel 4 has confirmed

I saw a spoof tweet saying Johnson was being interviewed by Laura K instead of Neil. I nearly exploded before I realised I’d been had!

AH thats what you get when you are either following Han Dodges or someone retweets 1 of his multiple parody accounts, I almost exploded in rage

It was a retweet. At least it made me laugh once I realised.

So far have had a Green Party leaflet and a generic Tory Party leaflet - the latter surprised me.

@ArseDarkly , you are entitled to your view, obviously. But the fact that there's even a question about whether Jewish members are safe in the Labour Party, or that Jews, in general feel safe under a Corbyn government, that should give you pause for thought. That we even have this conversation and it's not blindingly obvious that the Labour Party is a safe place and Corbyn's UK would be a safe place.
And you have seen as well as I have the likes of Williamson being indulged. Or the Panorama programme where complaint handlers were really struggling with intimidation.

Red and others - if you don't like party literature, phone the parties up and tell them to mark your record as such. Yes, they do have a record - they are entitled to a copy of the full electoral register, and no, they don't want to waste time and effort canvassing people who are very firmly against their party. Be polite though - there is no need to rant and rave, or go chasing canvassers down your drive. No thanks, take me off your lists, I vote xxx is sufficient.

Go Channel 4 - show the BBC how it's done:

Channel 4 'will put an ice sculpture of Boris Johnson on stage if the PM fails to turn up to tonight's climate change debate' as relations between Tories and the broadcaster get even frostier

-Channel 4 invited party leaders to take part in climate change debate tonight
-But Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are expected to snub the election event
-Tories had offered Michael Gove to take part instead of PM but offer rejected
-Broadcaster now reportedly considering putting an ice sculpture of PM on stage

Daily Mail link:

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7735367/Channel-4-ice-sculpture-Boris-Johnson-stage-snubs-debate.html

It was a Leader's debate.

Coward Johnson melting under the spotlight and pressure is an excellent metaphor!

Tories had offered Michael Gove to take part instead of PM but offer rejected

Good.

It shouldn’t be an opt out sort of event or one where you send a minion instead of you. It’s like when TM didn’t want to go, so sent Amber Rudd instead.

If he’s not prepared to answer questions in a leaders’ debate he shouldn’t be a leader. He deserves to be humiliated on ch4!

I've been inundated with LD literature, compared to one letter from Labour and nothing from the Tories - in a seat which is a Tory/LD marginal. The YouGov poll showed the Tories holding every seat in the county, which reflects that it's strongly Leave, but there has been no Tory posters up at all in our village - there's usually quite a few, especially farming families. There's certainly an air of disillusionment with politics. What has surprised me is that the incumbent Tory has done absolutely no campaigning beyond a few sm messages - we're a LD target so it seems odd. Not sure if they (Tories) think its a done deal, or if they think he's such a liability they'll do better if they keep him in hiding.

Absolutely the ineffective, unelectable, careerist politician Corbyn should promise tax cuts to the rich, be blatantly racist, mysogynistic and homophobic, he should bumble more when he speaks and lets be honest his lying game needs a lot of work and rightly then the media would be eating out of his hand

As if the answer to being shit like Corbyn is to be shit like Boris.

As if the answer to being shit like Corbyn is to be shit like Boris.

Well if thats not the answer why are media dancing to the Tory tune then?

If that is true ...wow for Channel 4.

Its incredible isn't it. Like May, Johnson is snubbing (or minimising) public debate. Won't face Andrew Neil or Channel 4. The reward is to still have a major lead in the polls.

Put out fake fact checking websites. Still a lead in the polls.

Put out doctored footage of opposition politicians. Still a lead in the polls.

Revelaed that he pretended to speak Chinese on the 'phone to avoid speaking to heartbroken mistress. Still a lead in the polls.

Moves in with a young woman whilst still technically married to some-one else. Has the police called out to an argument. Still a lead in the polls.

Puts out fake opposition manifesto. Still a lead in the polls.

Suppresses details of Russian funding of the (new) Tory party.Still a lead in the polls.

Lies about the true agenda with the NHS.Still a lead in the polls.

Lies about sacrifices and control to be given to US to secure a trade deal. Still a lead in the polls.

I think any leading Tory should try the eating - a - kitten -thing just to stress test if there are any limits.

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