Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

I missed your posts directed to me regarding whether you are hurting my feelings or not @JustAnotherPoster00 . Thank you for taking time out to post those.

I realise we disagree a lot bellini but you have your own set of unique circumstances and dismissing what you have to say just because I do not have the shared truth of your circumstances then Im doing no more than others are doing by dismissing peoples concerns, I dont think you are being disingenuous so the least I can do is try to learn and incorporate that in how I speak to members of the Jewish community whether its online or in RL

@ArseDarkly , you are entitled to your view, obviously

Except that you don't believe that, obviously, so what's the point of saying it? If you think people who don't agree with you are anti-Semitic or appeasers surely you're morally outraged so why the weasel words?

But the fact that there's even a question about whether Jewish members are safe in the Labour Party, or that Jews, in general feel safe under a Corbyn government, that should give you pause for thought

I'm not questioning that at all - I outright refute it. So I have no need to pause for thought. Those who use accusations for racism for political ends - well I have given up expecting any pausing for thought or sense of shame about what they are doing. I am just utterly sickened by it.

I realise we disagree a lot bellini but you have your own set of unique circumstances

What is 'unique' about Bellini's circumstances? Are you referring to him/her being Jewish? Because that isn't unique and doesn't confer on them some right to speak for all Jews, any more than the dreadful Chief Rabbi

Is that what I indicated AD? I hadnt realised, can you show me where I did that

@ArseDarkly . I'm not Jewish. My late Dad was. Half my family is. I'm older than most on here. I don't "speak" for anyone other than me. I have life experience and family relationships that make this matter important to me. I'm also half Irish so I'm not suckered by the "Corbyn brought peace to NI" bollocks.
I don't think that any Jewish person who accepts Corbyn is an antisemite. I presume it is a carefully thought out decision.
My concern is where people are stuck in their bubble and don't realise the real world consequences of what they say e.g. "I'm not an antisemite, I'm an antizionist" or "while we're talking about antisemitism, let's talk about what Israel (not the Likud government btw) does ".

Well if thats not the answer why are media dancing to the Tory tune then?

Because they’re largely Tory owned. Barclay, Murdoch, Rothermere. Other than BBC news which has collectively lost its nerve.

We have had leaflets from Lab, Lib, Con and Green.

I think the Tories are more rattled than they are letting on - like others, very few vote anything posters in the fields or even on houses.

For the first time in 21 years of living here, I have been visited by a canvasser. I was actually in the garden, painting the chicken run, so this poor chap tramped across the grass calling "Mrs Fish, Mrs Fish". He took his blue rosette out of his pocket and asked if he could count on my vote for Damian Collins (who is a shit). To my eternal shame I said "absolutely not, and I hope you all go down in flames". When he looked a bit crestfallen I said I dont mean you personally of course, and he said he had to take it personally. Feel a bit bad about that, although not bad enough to vote Tory.

Because they’re largely Tory owned. Barclay, Murdoch, Rothermere. Other than BBC news which has collectively lost its nerve.

Exactly so, which then begs another question of how do you get around that when you're promising a ground up change of the country, even if Corbyn was the best orator, charismatic, dashing and well dressed they would still be sending their attack dogs, so I'm not really sure how Corbyn can be to blame, they were always going to shoot the messenger

For the first time in 21 years of living here, I have been visited by a canvasser. I was actually in the garden, painting the chicken run, so this poor chap tramped across the grass calling "Mrs Fish, Mrs Fish". He took his blue rosette out of his pocket and asked if he could count on my vote for Damian Collins (who is a shit). To my eternal shame I said "absolutely not

Alternatively, you could have lied ... or even better picked his brain for hours about the minutia of Tory policy meaning he's less time to speak to someone he might actually persuade.

I'm not questioning that at all - I outright refute it.

And that’s fine. But just as Bellini can’t and doesn’t “speak for all Jews” neither can you. Surely you can accept that some people who feel differently to you are not doing so for ‘political ends’?

There is a problem with racism and xenophobia in the UK. As a foreigner with one of those "acceptable" anglosphere accents, I've been in the odd position of both having xenophobic views confided to me as though I'm some sort of ally, as well as (very occasionally) being the brunt of them myself. I've also been exposed to a very, very range of classes, ethnicities and British "tribes" due to my job.

I am not surprised to find that there is racism and antisemitism (and misogyny) in ANY political party. What does really grind my gears is this ridiculous, media-pumped up idea that ALL the anti-semitism in Labour, and ALL the Islamophobia is in the Conservatives. A more accurate view would be:

Labour: likes immigrants and underdogs of ANY type. Wants to include them and raise them up, sometimes to the point of overlooking what the impact is on the whole of society. See also: Transwomen are Women.

Conservatives: like wealthy successful types and will at least hide their distaste over outsiders (nation, race and class) IF they are wealthy and successful. All poor people deserve their lot and as many of those people are immigrants, it's a double-win for feeling justified in despising them. See also: the recent career of Priti Patel.

Lying ...

My concern is where people are stuck in their bubble and don't realise the real world consequences of what they say e.g. "I'm not an antisemite, I'm an antizionist" or "while we're talking about antisemitism, let's talk about what Israel (not the Likud government btw) does

And my concern is that you don't care about the consequences of falsly accusing people of antisemtism or trying to stifle debate on the issue of Israel.

I'm not in any fucking bubble, this is my life you're affecting.

Exactly so, which then begs another question of how do you get around that

What Tony Blair did is court the centre ground and get the media on your side.

The lesson I learnt from the 80s is that this country is inherently quite right wing, and the only way the left can get elected is to win over the centre. Unfortunately Corbyn was asleep in that class.

Who am I falsely accusing of antisemitism?

Afternoon.
Pretty depressing morning tbh.
2 big families fed at foodbank today.
And neither of those mothers is intending to vote.
But some people are so ground down by life and going through such a difficult time that voting is just another "thing/job" to do and it isn't seen as a priority.
It's all very well posting fb memes about suffragettes andnot wasting your vote but some women are concentrating on feeding their kids or suffering from domestic abuse.
I feel very very low about it all.

The ever sought for centre ground, but surely the centre ground is reliant on where the Overton window is at any given point, the policies of that Labour are promoting have been shown to have a high level of support until you tell them they are Labour proposals, so I'm thinking its more about a slow conditioning by the media in this country so unless you promise tax cuts for the billionaires and maybe some table scraps for the populace your message isnt really going to be heard

Maybe the only way the left can get elected is not to be left

Or why not let the BXP take over as Official Opposition
Looks like much of the country would prefer a choice of hard right Tory vs even harder right BXP

2 big families fed at foodbank today. And neither of those mothers is intending to vote.

In the name of all that's Holy, why ?

High level of support with whom? Corbynomics has mainly been comedy.

But media conditioning is very powerful I don’t disagree there. Brexit is largely a result of right wing media propaganda over the last 20 years.

Labour wins with a fairly centrist leader who hasn't shared a platform with dodgy people.
It's almost that simple.

Blair would have fitted easily into most Tory Cabinets 1951 - 2017
probably even Mrs Thatcher's Cabinet, since Ken Clarke managed to serve under her

Those Tories hankering after Blair seem to be hankering after the old One Nation Tory Party

• who I think could win and stay in power for the next 40 years, if they were still around

Labour wins with a fairly centrist leader who hasn't shared a platform with dodgy people.
It's almost that simple.

Which dodgy people did Neil Kinnock and Ed Milliband share with bellini?

Labour didn't win in 2015, with a Jewish leader, a fairly centrist platform, and after five years of austerity.

The argument that it's just down to Corbyn doesn't stand up to serious scrutiny.