Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

🤔

It's not over until the fatberg sings.

Is yappy a drunkbot?

Yes tobee - scroll on by indeed!

Are there lots of people on here tonight where we need to be channelling our inner Dionne to? 

Hahaha! Yes! 😂😂😂😂

Because ignoring people who are calling out shitty things is totes hilaire!!

Fucking belly laughs all round when we bring the Nazis into the convo!

Get in lads!!

Ahem

Well you might ask Hazard

I really don't care what you think of me SingingLily

I do agree that ListeningQuietly could have done without the direct reference - and if you notice I have not mentioned that person's name.

Personally I think that Cummings is a far more dangerous man - because he has explicitly followed the same strategy and deliberately spread known lies - in a time where such mass manipulation can be spread more easily.

Whose favourite quote was this?

"There was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyway always yield to the ** er, and this will always be "the man in the street." Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology"

If Boris Johnson is truly to be believed and the NHS is safe, people will be better off and we will get good trade deals WITH EU and US I will be shocked yes, but delighted also.

Johnson has told so many lies, I doubt if he would recognise the truth.

It was depressing reading this thread tonight and the polls - but I do wonder if they are polling the right people still.

I hope the Tories get a nasty surprise. Failing that, I hope those who are idiotic enough to vote for them enjoy it when the Tories completely shaft them. You won't see Johnson visiting a hospital again and you won't see any new money. And you won't need to complain, because that will be what you voted for!

peregrina I don't believe him.

But a large percentage of the population obviously do. I have to hope they know what they are voting for.

If you don't have hope...........

I think trying to explain the subtlety is wasted pretty.

For a wee bit of light relief I think we need this again

Have to say, the person who uploaded it over 3 years ago was amazingly prescient

I didn't read the post about Goebbels, but just remember that in the 1930s many of the Upper classes and upper middle classes in the UK were quite happy with what they saw Hitler doing. Nor was the country particularly welcoming to fleeing Jews. Yes, some people knew what was happening but a good many didn't and weren't interested.

Ask yourself why something like the Kindertransport had to be organised by one committed individual? He wasn't the only one, there were others, but ask yourself why there was no proper Government action?

I think you're right tobee

Love that, Hazard!

I'll wait for the exit polls and the actual results.

Peregrina - you might (or should ) find your comments attacked even more strongly than LQ's as you are explicitly drawing analogies with what happened in Germany to what's happening now - and heaven forfend that people's sensibilities are impugned in that way

I've taken out the "offending" line from LQ's post - but actually, I think the sentiment has a lot of merit - and is actually more conciliatory than many of the posts on here which complain about how "thick" people are etc etc

......

"DO NOT BE GUTTED
BE ANGRY

Do not tell people they are wrong
allow them to realise they are wrong in increments
we have time

LIke on the immigration thread
I'm asking which jobs should be blocked to immigrants
its not skin tone, its job description

twist your own arguments ....

The EU is bringing in tax transparency
do we not want that
etc etc etc"

@prettybird. “ Personally I think that Cummings is a far more dangerous man”

More dangerous than....?

No. There are never any goady types jumping on this thread ever.

Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
1/ Yes
@YouGov
did well last time with their model, but having just spent the evening with a whole bunch of pollsters and political scientists, the interest this one exercise is attracting worries me
11:06 PM · Nov 27, 2019·Twitter for iPhone
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Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
·
2h
Replying to
@prospect_clark
2/ as it happens, their projected headline number of Con seats is very close to what I put in the office sweep stake. So I certainly aren’t saying it’s wrong. Only that I don’t know, and neither do they
Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
·
2h
3/ as the fella who wrote the notorious Guardian front page on Election Day 2015 (headline: “it couldn’t be closer”!) I fear we’re still to absorb the real lessons of that trauma for the pollsters and pundits
Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
·
2h
4/ Lesson 1 of 2015 is that it’s no use having more data if you’re data is biased. Back then, inspired by the cult of Nate Silver & his state-by-state stuff, we had loads of constituency polls and seat-by-seat projections that turned out to be tosh
Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
·
1h
5/ by then only oddballs we’re answering landlines for market research: our respondents weren’t typical.

YG has lots of data. Maybe the people who opt in to answering online Qs aren’t so odd. But by definition you can’t correct for any unobserved ways in which they might be odd
Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
·
1h
6/ generally in polling just now there is heavy reliance being placed on “weighting” -
@p_surridge
told me earlier she’d seen some raw data recently that showed the two parties neck and neck
Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
·
1h
7/ now relying on raw data is not a good idea. But there is an opposite risk in weighting and calibrating too much: you end up with your own assumptions, rather than your sample, driving many of your numbers
Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
·
1h
8/ MRP applies patterns found in big national data to local circumstance. Not a bad idea, but one that doubles down on both the quality of that national data, and the ability of researchers to find & interpret the right patterns in it as well
Tom Clark
@prospect_clark
·
1h
9/ by making more adjustments, you increase the scope to correct errors for sure, but you also increase the scope to introduce them

Missed a whole thread - pmk.

Hi math!

More Tory propaganda bingo:

'far-left loons'
'seize power'
'hardcore'
'Corbyn cult!'
And apparently tax is a Bad Thing.

What's the for? To normalise it?

Hi there, tobee!