Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Thank you brain. I’m a bit slow on the uptake with those things 😊

he at least had an amazing breadth of knowledge, including current affairs, geography, history, classic literature

That was my dad. Born 1916, joined the RAF because he was too old at 17 to go down the pit. He was an avid reader and his breadth of knowledge was so impressive.

I missed this story a couple of days ago.
Priti Patel seems to be picking on every other minority group except her own - this is her plan for the gypsies:

Monbiot: Priti Patel’s demonisation of Gypsies is an attack on the vulnerable for political gain

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/13/priti-patel-demonisation-gypsies-prejudice-bigotry?

The consultation document she released on the last day of parliament aims to “test the appetite to go further” than any previous laws.

It suggests that the police should be able immediately to confiscate the vehicles of “anyone whom they suspect to be trespassing on land with the purpose of residing on it”.

Until successive Conservative governments began working on it, trespass was a civil and trivial matter.
Now it is treated as a crime so serious that on mere suspicion you can lose your home.

"Patel’s proposed laws belong to the most dangerous of all political categories:

performative oppression.

She is beating up a marginalised group in full public view, to show that she sides with the majority."

PMK I think this election is going to be the hardest to predict for many a year.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-defends-prince-andrew-jeffrey-epstein-comments-a9078171.html 🤦‍♀️

Hello @CendrillonSings I'm not going to knock you, I'm going to knock the shower of cunts you support, whose policies made me homeless. Whose policies told my wheelchair bound friend she was cured of her Spina Bifida and my ex gf was not suffering with a heart condition months before her heart condition killed her.

And don't start me on their racism.

*Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (+4)
LAB: 30% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (-5)
BREX: 6% (-)

15 Point Tory Lead

via @DeltapollUK

Deltapoll is interesting... I know it’s only one poll and they have margins of error, but I’m struggling to think of what would have happened over the past week to lead to such a drop for the LDs and commensurate rise for the Tories.

DoctorTwo
That's frightening

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/election-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge?__twitter_impression=true

Fascinating article, particularly the latter half which shows how many putative LD supporters go Tory in a Tory/Labour fight. It goes to show why LDs are so keen to distance themselves from Labour! I expect the LDs will milk these for all they’re worth.

Interesting and baffling also that these polls were carried out by Deltapoll who have shown a dramatic drop in LD support at a national level in their latest poll...

www.remain-labour.co.uk/campaign-pledge-ge-2019

List of prospective Labour MPs who have pledged to support/campaign for remain. My PCC has signed. She was very pro- remain on the doorstep too.

oakenbeach It used to be normal at GEs to see a LDem squeeze, even after the LDems had won a run of byelections

We're seeing BXP squeezed very hard too

Reverting to 2-party politics in England ?

London - a cosmopolian world city with high % of non-British born - and rEngland sometimes seem 2 different countries

The tone of some posters on these last threads, and particularly this one is shocking. Argue your point like a grown up. Sneering and snarking and mocking - how on earth is that going to persuade people of your point? Unless you’re just here to derail

On a more.. cheerful (?) note, a poll from my local paper’s twitter feed (well, local-ish - it covers the whole county). Probably not indicative of much, but quite fun to see as normally the more brexity opinions are much louder.

Hmm - my tiny local poll an interesting counterpoint to the posts above it re a national LD drop...

School leaving age is still 16 on Scotland (and, as far as I can make out, Wales and NI). It only seems to be England which has effectively raised it to 18

It just illustrates yet again how things that one part of the UK takes for granted can't be assumed to be the case in other parts of the UK.

As an aside, my mum (a probationer English teacher) and I both started at the same secondary on the same day. She was given the ROSLA class (the Raising of the School Leaving Age class - the 15 year olds who hadn't expected still to be at school ). The school wasn't to know that she was going to be an excellent teacher (it only cared about the clever kids so I was fine ) - yet she managed to get her reluctant class enthused about English and even managed to get them to buy extra books when there weren't enough to go round of one of the later books she wanted them to read (she started them on "To Kill A Mockingbird" and then went on to "The Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner" and/or "Kes").

Unless you’re just here to derail

Just scroll on down ... don't give them oxygen.

Normal for smaller parties to get squeezed as the election approaches. Also I imagine that the number of don't knows is still significant. Samples will be adjusted according to how they voted or claim to have voted in the previous election(s) and I wonder if there is a higher incentive than usual for misremembering. And there are a lot of new voters so assumptions about turnout will be key.

Lewis Goodall said yesterday that not many people seem to be changing sides except older white men. But a lot of people might just not bother to vote.

I don't think there are many reasons to be cheerful but at the same time I will be astonished if that deltapoll survey is correct.

Good advice Misti - I try to follow that approach although I do occasionally get sucked in

@prettybird we had a classroom block called the ROSLA at my secondary school! I've never heard someone from another school use that term. I don't know why reading that on your post made me smile! Ah! Nostalgia!

Jennifer Arcuri is spilling the beans in an interview tomorrow night with ITV. The quotes from it sound pretty damaging for Johnson.

Just read about it in the Mail online. The comments are just incredible, make the Boris supporters on here seem quite bright.

See there's something on the Sunday Times about the Russia report apparently.

There are also three polls which show a 8, 7, and 6 point gap- funny how they don’t make headlines!

A 6 or 7 point lead is potentially hung parliament territory. But I think we have to be honest with ourselves and acknowledge that a 6 point Tory lead is as much an outlier as a 15 point one.

At the moment we need to be hoping that the polls aren't accurate and/or that they narrow. There is only so much that tactical voting or a geographically differentiated swing can do.

On that note, let's hope that Ms Arcuri does her bit for the cause.

It's not an outlier, there are three of them Mistigiri. So they are uninterpretable really.

The polls did not narrow in 2017 until well after manifestos were released, and in some cases not at all. 14 out of 15 on election day predicted a very large tory majority. Survation predicted a hung parliament and was absolute mocked and discredited.

They tell a story. That's all. Who is paying and what story do they want told

i don't think tactical voting will help anything personally. I think we just need to keep getting people registered to vote.