Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Only appear to be two candidates so far in my constituency- Labour and Green. Assuming the Brexshit bunch will be here. Can't wait for them all to start knocking on our door

What bellini - only two parties out canvassing, or only Labour and Green standing? In some constituencies though, the pig with the blue rosette and those where votes are weighed, they needn't do any canvassing - they get returned anyway.

I don't blame Jo Swinson at all for not supporting labour, given the "80% of the electorate support Brexit" bollocks after the last GE.

I'm so apathetic though. Especially because the parties now seem to be campaigning about anything but brexit, despite the election being called to sort out brexit.

Such a mess. I will be voting lib dem not that it will do much good.

So we have one political party, the governing party indeed, contacting prospective candidates for a rival party with inducements to stand down, some of them made from government phones.

Welcome to Britainistan, banana republic without any bananas.

Ds is at university in Canterbury but is registered to vote here. Keep nudging him to remember to register for postal vote.

PMK & thanks

Wouldn’t he do better to vote in Canterbury @tobee?

You can be registered to vote in two places but in a general election you can only vote once.

My sister, who lives in Australia, has already sent her postal vote.

She owns a property in the UK.

Not sure Also. It's a three way here. But I'm not sure which way to nudge him.

Yes I'm aware of that thanks to these boards! As long is he votes. He's a politics student after all! But he seems to be more entranced by the humorous element of British politics than anything

My DD1 has no vote on account of being forrin, but is nagging reminding her fellow students to register to vote.

This year was her first year of being eligible and she made sure she was registered to vote in the local and EU elections.

I'm also seeing a lot of my much younger (early 30s) friends becoming very engaged with politics in a way they never were before - and it isn't the Tories who will be benefiting.

I don't blame Jo Swinson at all for not supporting labour, given the "80% of the electorate support Brexit" bollocks after the last GE.

She doesn’t say Labour she specifically says Corbyn.

PMK

Does anyone know when the various parties manifestos are going to be published ? Not having read any before I wonder if I am expecting too much detail or if they are a variety of vague promises ?

Southampton Itchen has settled into personal grudge match central
(Simon and Royston and Kim all personally loathe each other)
Popcorn at the ready

.

frumpety I would say next week.

I have to eat humble pie here, a previous hater of Corbyn, but I think he's having a good show so far.

Does anyone know when the various parties manifestos are going to be published?

Manifestoes are going to be late. You normally expect them to be out with a month to go, but there is talk of one or more not appearing before P-Day -14

If I were the Brexit party I wouldn’t bother with a manifesto. Who would read it? Who would write it? Who would care? I’d just go on the BBC and say whatever I liked whenever I liked, regardless of sense and/or veracity.
Off to bed now for an early night after driving through the most frightening floods I’ve ever encountered. A hot bath and most of a bottle of wine has soothed me, however.
Thanks Red, thanks all, for your wisdom and your company.

Still fuming with the LibDems over Canterbury. There is no need to do this.

And I’m still bemused as to why people can’t understand why the LDs can’t be seen to be Labour enablers - as soon as they’re seen as Labour’s little helpers, they increase the risk of losing/not winning a whole load of Tory marginals, with all the damage that would do to the Remain cause .

..... and why people think the LD candidate will make any actual difference. Those who are minded to vote Labour (e.g. even the former LD candidate!) to ensure a Tory doesn’t get elected, won’t suddenly vote LD and increase the chance of a Tory victory just because a LD is standing - that would be bizarre! Yes, some will vote LD, but those will be people who couldn’t stomach voting for Labour for whatever reason irrespective of whether Labour stands.

I think people tend to think voting is a zero sum game, and that if you can’t vote for one candidate, you’ll inevitably switch your vote to another... Those people seem to forget that in most constituencies more people don’t vote at all than vote for the winning candidate!

Apart from the people on Christmas dos straight from work who'll not manage to vote if get back too late and the risk of dark, cold, wet nights putting people off going out again, there's also football!

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
·
6h
One for the football-politics nerds...

Last time there was football on during UK General Election voting hours? Ever?

Wolves, MUFC, Rangers all playing at home.
Arsenal and Celtic fans might need a postal vote... evening of 12th December.

In the case of Wolves, 30,000 fans at Molyneux between 7 and 10pm on election night, in a town with two key Labour-held Conservative targets...

Thanks, red 💐

My dream result would be a hung Parliament AND all 3 main party leaders losing their seats
Sadly, I know at least Corbyn won't

However, maybe we can see the scalps of Redwood and IDS
Maybe even a bigger ERG scalp,
e.g. I'd love the "Portillo Moment" to be renamed as the "Mogg Moment"
< spins prayer wheel >

Westministenders' Abbreviations:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eureferendumm2016/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation?msgid=84503730

Faragecorps doesn't need a manifesto.

What on earth would it say???

Hoooo
THe person I know who had their linkedin status as "PPC for the Brexit Party" must be pretty pissed off now they know Nigel did not submit the forms but took their cash .....

Manifesto = Making Plans for Nigel