Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

There's still the tv debate, which I really doubt is going to help Johnson.
The labour manifesto is going to be popular, positive.
The tories have nothing to offer. That's why they are paying people to write content online, why they need the media, why the russian money, why the bribes to BXP. They haven't any policies that would help anyone.

Jennifer Arcuri is spilling the beans in an interview tomorrow night with ITV. The quotes from it sound pretty damaging for Johnson.

Johnson is Teflon though, so it won't damage him.
But then I thought - wait, we thought that about Tony Blair once.

I wish you were right squid, but there are still people who will vote Tory come what may.

Squid true - I've had a look a the Britain Elects list of polls and it's actually a really odd distribution. One group of pollsters consistently has a 14-17 point lead and another group a 6-8 point lead, with only a minority in the middle.

The "Big Tory lead" group of pollsters are showing a widening margin since BXP candidates stood down. The "smaller Tory lead" group don't at first glance seem to be.

yeah of course.
But they want us to give up and think it's pointless.
There's so much lies and manipulation here it's unreal.
Rain rain rain.

I keep telling myself that a 15% or whatever Tory lead doesn't matter -if it means that in some areas the Tory gets a 20,000 majority, as opposed to a 5,000 majority, it still only translates into one seat for them.

Maybe with another hung Parliament, which is the best we can hope for, they will realise that they need to be serious about electoral reform.

I hope locally that the Brexit Party standing can only hurt the Tory candidate.

Unashamedly copied from someone called Martin Janu on Facebook, who has asked us to share it:

Boris Johnson did an interview on BBC Breakfast this morning with Naga Munchetty. I have picked out some of the points Johnson made and my understanding of the reality behind them.

Tories have a new phrase to tack on the end of Get Brexit Done; “Unleash the potential of the country” – this is a great phrase and full of emotion but plays into the misconception that the EU is in some way holding the UK back. There is no evidence that this is the case. This phrase was not challenged or queried by the BBC.

Johnson has got a “great deal” to come out of the EU. This is not the case, those that have had the time to read the “deal” say it is worse than Theresa May’s deal and the DUP do not support it as it does something that no British Prime Minister would agree to. Also, as soon as Parliament demanded more time to scrutinize the deal Johnson withdrew it which can only suggest the deal is not as great as he would like us to believe. Saying it is a “great deal” time after time as the Tories have been doing and plan to continue doing plants the message into the public’s subconscious and after a while they start to believe it. Not challenged by the BBC.

Johnson said “If the deal is approved by Parliament it ends the uncertainty for business during the transition period”. This is not true, the uncertainty is simply prolonged until December 2020 when there is the possibility of another no deal cliff edge scenario. As trade deals take years to negotiate it is highly likely that Johnson would be using no deal again prior to Dec 2020 in order to try to pressure the EU into giving the UK a better trade deal. The uncertainty will therefore last as long as there is no trade deal which may take years. Not challenged by the BBC.

Johnson said that “Parliament have blocked a deal with the EU for 3 years”. Totally untrue. It was Johnson himself who resigned from Theresa May’s government over her Chequers statement in July 2018 and then voted against the deal she had negotiated on the basis of it a number of times. It is more accurate to say that Johnson himself, the ERG and the DUP blocked a deal which they held to be a bad deal after it was presented in November 2018 when it was actually laid before the House for consideration. Theresa May took two and a half years to come to an agreement with the EU the shaping of which parliament had no input to at all, Parliament could not therefore have blocked a deal for 3 years. Not challenged by the BBC.

Johnson said “We are already in perfect alignment with the EU and so it will be easy to get a free trade agreement”. We are in perfect alignment as we are full members of the EU but when we leave we will be a third party and have to negotiate a new treaty, or treaties, as a non EU member. If we do not follow the rules of the club we cannot obtain all its benefits. This is classic “cake and eat it” from Johnson. Not challenged by the BBC.

Johnson said that “the NHS needed more investment” which is why they have committed to put some more money into it. The question from the BBC should have been that as the tories have been running the NHS for the last 9 years why this was not evident before and not just now on the eve of an election. Not challenged by the BBC.

Johnson said the government has committed to put £34Bn, not £20Bn into the NHS. The BBC did try to challenge this but didn’t win the argument as they did not appear briefed well enough to succeed. Johnson successfully managed to put another confusing number on the table. There was no justification of the 34Bn. I suspect we will see much more of this as Corbyn has outbid Johnson’s £20Bn with his 26Bn commitment. In reality the £20Bn is overstated as it includes inflation. The increase varies each year between 3.1% and 3.6% but one would expect the budget for the NHS to rise at least in line with inflation in this new non austerity world. Taking 2% inflation off the increase would only give additional annual spend after 5 years of £8Bn. Beyond the capabilities of the BBC to challenge.

Johnson said “Labour wrecked the economy and the tories have managed it sensibly”. When Labour left office in 2010 the national debt was £1.1 trillion. In 2019 the national debt had increased to £1.8 trillion. It is not clear what Johnson meant when he said tories had managed the economy sensibly. Not queried by the BBC.

Johnson said there had been “high rates of immigration” then went on to say there had been “Uncontrolled Immigration”. Immigration from the EU can be controlled as there are rules agreed with the EU about how long EU nationals can live in a country without being able to support themselves. The Home Office has never made any attempt to enforce these rules. The EU rules do not apply to immigrants from non EU countries and Freedom of Movement does not apply to these people. The Home Office could therefore control the number of non EU nationals coming to the country if they had wanted to. The “Uncontrolled Immigration” was therefore in the government’s gift to “fix” without resorting to giving up its full membership of the EU. Not challenged by the BBC.

Johnson said “unskilled immigration has pushed wages down”. The Migration Advisory Report commissioned by Theresa May and published in September 2018 finds no evidence that this is the case. Johnson is at odds with the committee that the government asked to research the impacts of immigration. In fact immigration yields a net benefit to the UK. BBC did not mention the report produced by the Migration Advisory Committee nor challenge the statements made by Johnson.

Johnson said if we get Brexit done then “we will get all the benefits that Brexit brings”. Government analysis of the impacts of Brexit show a negative impact in every scenario. Not raised by the BBC.

Truly the interview was a disaster for truth and Johnson got away with murder using the BBC as a soapbox to disseminate his poison. The trouble is that millions of people probably watched it and have believed some of what he said.

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Andrew Gregory
@andrewgregory
·
13h
Breaking: Labour vows to introduce free dental check-ups for everyone. The party will make all Band 1 treatments - check-ups, X-rays and a scale and polish - free at the point of use. Dentistry is one of the few NHS services patients currently pay for.

Labour vows to introduce free dental check-ups for everyone

I’ve got a feeling that will go down very well with much of the electorate.

Peregrina the thing that has annoyed me the most over the last 3 and a half years is the lack of scrutiny by the mainstream media. I have listened, time and again, to politicians being allowed to say things that are clearly without any basis in reality and not be questioned on it. Fine if they have 'opinions' but these are being portrayed as facts. We know that politicians will be economical with the truth, I always naively assumed it was the medias job to call them out on it ?

They tell a story. That's all. Who is paying and what story do they want told

If I was Tory wanting to commission a poll that would support my cause, counter-intuitively I’d wouldn’t want the result to be one showing a large gap between Tories and Labour.

A large gap may be comforting and good for morale, but it risks complacency and over-confidence.... and that is dangerous electorally.

I think the only plus Labour has had so far is theres been quite a focus on policy, i know theres been plenty of 'scary Corbyn' stuff but theres been pretty much nothing on Tory policy only the get Brexit done bollocks

I agree with large poll gaps - it leads to complacency. I would also caution against parties putting up posters left, right and centre - it again induces complacency. It doesn't matter how many posters you have - it's the cross in the box which matters, so knowing who is likely to vote for you and getting them out is the key.

to Tory politicians being allowed to say things that are clearly without any basis in reality and not be questioned on it

I fixed that for you frumpety

And Farage!

When Johnson says 'We have got a great deal', the question should be asked? - Who for? For Johnson and his moneyed cronies, it's a great deal - scrap workers rights, scrap environmental and food standards, and make more money for them. For the rest of us?

James Foster
@JamesEFoster
·
4m
“...and you listen to
@JeremyCorbyn
and you think: ‘well, yes, I don’t agree with all of that, of course you don’t. But what he says is fundamentally for the interests of working people...not for the handful of neoliberals down in London...’”
#Marr #Ridge

twitter.com/i/status/1195981288529940487

Of course if it were properly funded and rolled out the dental check thing would benefit so many - long overdue. Someone at Labour HQ is doing a very good job drip feeding these policies.
I look forward to reading posts rubbishing free dental checks.

Daily Mirror
@DailyMirror
·
15h
Final Countdown singer tells Tories 'don't play song' he says isn't about Brexit mirror.co.uk/news/politics/final-countdown-singer-tells-tories-20895216?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

I think it was Peter Hitchens who said that the purpose of polls is to influence public opinion, not measure it. Be sceptical for this reason alone and in any event, I am hopeful that Labour will gain some momentum next week in the debate and following the manifesto launch.

born obviously going to be communist dental checks

That would benefit so many people I know who can't afford private dental care

Lots of people come to A&E for dental problems and we can't help them much
I see loads of accidental painkiller overdoses for dental problems, occasionally serious ones

I was on an NHS dentist waiting list for 3 years before I got to be seen, theres only 1 around me and their NHS list is constantly full, the nearest after that is well over 50 miles away

Yep.
Had horrendous problems a few years ago (lost a toorh eventually..) cost me £1200.