Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

This is very cheering.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/hes-got-a-battle-on-his-hands-could-uxbridge-unseat-boris-johnson

tobee We'd have a very long wait
His position hasn't changed since even the then PM Theresa May told him to apologise

Boris Johnson 'won't apologise' for burka comments

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45096519

Boris Johnson has stood by his remarks about the burka after the Conservative Party chairman told him to apologise.

The former foreign secretary has been criticised for saying Muslim women wearing burkas "look like letter boxes" and comparing them to "bank robbers".

(then) PM Theresa May has backed calls for Mr Johnson to apologise, saying the remarks have "clearly caused offence".

BigChoc

Just

So to be clear, you think that this Labour candidate's racist jokes are OK and we should still vote for him, correct?

I really don’t understand why the LDs haven’t pulled out of Uxbridge, surely everything should be going behind the labour candidate

To be fair, the LibDems lost their deposit in Uxbridge last time so their standing is probably irrelevant.

So to be clear, you think that this Conservative candidate's racist jokes are OK and we should still vote for him, correct?

Cendrillon ^ So to be clear, you think it ok to invent your own statements ?^

If it is OK to vote for a Prime Minister who has made racist jokes as a middle-aged politician, then it would be double standards to say it is not OK to vote for an MP who made racist jokes as a youth

Do you really have such blatant double standards ?

Of course BCF doesn’t think racist jokes are OK as anyone who has followed these threads for even a short while and knows her family history would understand.

Cendrillon Do you now say people shouldn't vote for BJ because of his recent racists jokes ?

• when he was a middle-aged adult politician

Or does Tory racism at the highest level not matter, but must doom a Labour youth for ever ?

You're the one with the blatant double standards, since you attack Boris night and day for comments he's made - and that's a reasonable position. But the moment it's a Labour candidate, all your principles go out the window.

Which rather implies that you wouldn't give a damn about Boris' comments at all, had it not been Boris or another Tory who had said them.

From the article AH linked

His political opponents will undoubtedly point to some antisemitic remarks he has been accused of making as a teenager on Twitter, for which he has repeatedly apologised.

Were still waiting for Johnsons apology, do you think he should apologise cendrillion?

What happened to scroll on by?

Rachel Clarke
@doctor_oxford
·
Nov 9
Under a
@Conservatives
govt since 2010:

😢 Surgical waiting lists have soared to 4.4 million

👩🏻‍⚕️ District nurses culled by 50%

🏥 15k hospital beds closed

🤕 Cancer waits the worst on record

👨‍⚕️ NHS now short of 43k nurses & 10k doctors

What a truly appalling track record.
Quote Tweet

ToryHealth
@ToryHealth
· Nov 9
Under a @Conservatives majority Government there will be:

🏥 50 million more appointments in GP surgeries

👩‍⚕️ 6,000 more GPs

👨‍⚕️ 6,000 more nurses, physiotherapists & pharmacists

#VoteConservative

vote.conservatives.com/news/more-gp-appointments

You could also ask why Lord Buckethead and Count Binman, plus the Green and a few Independents don't stand down too.

I think the LDs know that some people will never vote Labour, but if they stand they will mop up a few useful Tory votes. In this case, the scalp of the PM would be a most delicious prize.

I was repeatedly called "wog" by other kids at school,
because I am mixed race and my area of the UK was 100% white British except for me & mum

it made my schooldays hell

If one of those racist bullies now stood for Parliament, I would NOT bring that up - an adult's views change dramatically from their teens, or even from their early 20s

imo, that early racism was just reflecting the households they grew up in and I would expect nearly all of them have grown up to be decent human beings,
who would be horribly embarassed & apologetic if I brought up what they did in their youth.

Under a @Conservatives majority Government there will be: .....

Umm, so why aren't they there now? Have we had a Labour Government for the last nine years? If so, I must have slept through it.

Which is why BCF posts are worth reading and cendrilbots aren't.

If one of those racist bullies now stood for Parliament, I would NOT bring that up

I assume you would if that person was still a racist bully. It does seem that the PM has what must be called Tory Groupies, the way they fawn over him.

That's a generous perspective, but you must admit it's also one that happens to be very favourable to Milani's circumstances. I don't know about you or anyone you know, but it certainly wasn't normal for teenagers to make antisemitic jokes when I was younger, because normal teenagers should know better. So I don't see why one who goes on to run for Parliament at a very young age should be exempt from criticism.

"You're the one with the blatant double standards"
YOU are indeed Cendrillon

Explain to me why you excuse a middle aged Tory Cabinet Minister now PM for racism, but condemn someone who made racist jokes as a youth

I think the Labour candidate was wrong when he was a kid to make racist jokes,
but as explained, I don't hold grudges against the kids who yelled racist insults at me .... because they are very unlikely to still be racist now

What excuse for remarks made when a middle-aged politician ?
I might even consider whether he had turned over a new leaf if he apologised for all his racist remarks and said they were wrong.
He refuses
iirc, the Labour candidate has apologised for what he did as a kid

I do NOT forgive the one really racist teacher I had, who kept shouting and smacking me very hard for no reason
and who once told an absolutely blatant lie to send me to the head for caning - only he could cane

She was a middle-aged adult
I doubt if she changed in her later life

BCF

Explain to me why you excuse a middle aged Tory Cabinet Minister now PM for racism, but condemn someone who made racist jokes as a youth

I'm saying you should criticise both, or neither. But only Boris' comments get condemned on here, whilst Milani's are excused.

That's the double standard.

I condemn Milani's comments. However, he has apologised.

I don't excuse Milani's comments