Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

BCF agreed.

I don't believe the polls.

I also hope BJ himself could put people off.

Hes not really something you could argue has a strong sense of morality. And that may put off some of the older more traditional tories.

spot the difference

I see thanks BCF. They sound a lot like DUP voters.

Oh Just, you've got the crappy memes, we've got the double-digit leads!

Memes count as votes though, right? Right?

That's exactly the sort of photos I'd expect Just. Good grief!

On a serious note, Just & tobee, those nice older people you're insulting are going to march to the polling stations on December 12th in a blue tidal wave that will finish Corbyn off - and God bless them for it!

Wow there's some difference!

Most fervent longterm supporters of the same party are members
Although since the Tory membership is so small for a major party, that may not be so true for them

The DUP membership is also tiny - I've read only about 1,000 ?
Do you know if this is true ?

Banks & co boasted of having infiltrated the Tory party with iirc around 20,000 people - which could be ⅕ of their membership and a far larger % of their active membership,
i.e. those who select candidates to stand for MP

There's probably exaggeration in those reports, but the party membership has certainly been taken over by the hard right within the last 15 years or so
there is always a long leadtime before such changes in a party's membership are fully reflected in their MPs in the HoC.

This came up on my FB earlier - I assume DGRosetti has already posted it
as he and I seem to have very similar feeds
but it made me laugh a lot

those nice older people you're insulting are going to march to the polling stations on December 12th

Can you point out the insults?

Looking at the longterm:

for some time the characteristic of people turning Tory once they reach about 35 has not been happening in nearly the numbers it used to

.... because the accumulation of property, wealth, security and an improved standard of living hasn't been happening in the 30s and 40s as before

The turning point in 2017 was age 47
i.e. the age at which there are as many Tory as Labour supporteres

What has saved the Tories so far is the v high voting % of the 65+ age group, i.e. the retired
and the much lower % of the discouraged young making the effort to go out before / after work

However, if the turning point age continues to rise, the Tories would be doomed within a decade
Not much consolation for those suffering in the intervening years

Just
Scroll on by....

I posted this onto a different thread earlier
but think its relevant to this one

would remainers notice the difference of Brexit
too effing right I would
For the last week I have been using

• EU roaming rights to run my business online while working in another EU country
• I have used EU mutual recognition rules to be allowed to drive my car for work in that country
• I have used EU freedom of movement to be allowed to bid for work in that country
• I have used EU environmental regulations to know that the drinking water was safe where I was working
• I have used EU GDPR rules to know that my information was being correctly handled

if Brexit happens I would be unable to do that work
and thus be many many thousands of pounds a year worse off

Wonder when I’ll reach the turning point? 66 and no sign of it yet.

Bigchoc / Alsohuman
While driving for 7 hours today, DH and I discussed such things.

Important factors
THe school leaving age is currently 18
When I was a kid it was 16
When Bigchoc was a kid only by a few months it was 14

Until the 70's it was normal for state school kids to leave school with no qualifications at all

Until league tables cam in it was normal for private school kids to leave with one or two mediocre A levels

We are dealing with a "long tail" of people who were neglected at school
I work with such people and its an utter eye opener
who now base decisions on concrete thought rather than analytical decision
which would be fine
if
we had stuck to representative democracy

Is it ok to post these?

I don’t understand what he’s describing but it sounds a bit dodgy. Is it?

My constituency is going to be interesting. Lab-Con marginal. Currently Labour by approx 1200 but was Tory before the last election. Strongly remain (59%) in referendum. But local district council now has more LibDems, and more Greens too than Labour members. In the European Elections for the district LibDems polled highest, followed by Brexit, Green, and Labour/Tory neck and neck (but both under 1/3 of what the LibDem vote was).

We're also a university dormitory area with an increase in the student population since the last election. Plus being a Labour held seat we do still have a Brexit Party candidate to add to the mix.

I don't see the Conservatives winning here this time. But quite how the vote splits between the others is hard to predict.

Listening When I was a kid, school leaving age was 15;
those of us who went to a grammar usually left with 2 A levels
About 6% went to uni
those who went to 2ndary modern left with 3-4 O levels in our area

it was my dad & his siblings in the 1930s who left on their 14th birthday - no qualifications whatsoever of course, as was normal for wc kids
But ....
he at least had an amazing breadth of knowledge, including current affairs, geography, history, classic literature

If anything I have gone the other way. I mean, I didn't actually think Ted Heath daemonic, and I preferred him to Wilson because I thought Wilson was smarmy and I hated his fake accent (he was at Oxford and didn't have it then). I just had (and still have) very little time for any politician. So I pootled along thinking something along the lines "at least when the Tories are in you know who the enemy is".

But Boris Johnson and his gang I actively detest. No other party grouping in my lifetime has caused me to volunteer to help the party most likely to unseat a member of that wunch of bankers. So now, far from becoming a Tory in my old age, I have done the opposite.

I'm 68 and I haven't reached the turning point yet...

Ken Clarke said he hadn't left the Tory party, but that it had left him

It has changed from a quite moderate - if not very efficient - Conservative party in the 1970s, into a hard right English Nationalist party now.

Most of the visible changes actually occurred once Cameron became PM,
but they must have been bubbling under the surface for years, ready to burst out when he gave the opportunity of a referendum.

those of us who went to a grammar usually left with 2 A levels
Not at my girls grammar. Half left at 16 with maybe 5 O levels,

About 6% went to uni
And most girls leaving after A level were pushed into Colleges of Education, for which good ones wanted 2 A levels, but it was still possible to get in with 5 O levels. Having said that, some of those who didn't get A levels went on to become perfectly capable teachers - although I don't recall any teaching to A level.

Until league tables cam in it was normal for private school kids to leave with one or two mediocre A levels

Oh yes, I can remember one of the local independent schools getting results like that. They have raised their game considerably since then- which they should when you are stumping up £12,000 a year.

Peregina Those A levels were sometimes grade D or E, but we were pushed to get that minimum

I don't think many left at 16, but tbh I've blotted out most memories of my schoodays

• I hated it all, which to be fair to my grammar at least, I now realise was due to the horrendous stress of being an Aspie before such conditions were known or catered for.

I survived because it was the traditional sitting in rows of desks, no talking, facing a teacher who lectured and wrote in chalk on a blackboard, all lesson.
I couldn't have coped with group work, which I gather happens in many lessons now.

Dusty I think that’s a jokey post - a bit like those ones that said things like “Don’t forget to vote leave on Friday June 24th 2016” (i.e day after the referendum).