Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

We're fortunate that PA is not the eldest son

(and no, King Andrew wouldn't be enough to end the monarchy, just as JRM & BJ aren't enough to end the Tory Party)

We're unfortunate that BJ is the PM and probably will be for the next couple of years, until Brexit stops it being fun

If Prince Andrew was the eldest son he would feel even more entitled than he does already.(If that is even possible).

We're unfortunate that BJ is the PM and probably will be for the next couple of years, until Brexit stops it being fun

Or maybe the Brunel students will save us all! Is it known how many of them usually vote in that constituency in a GE? There are 13,000 of them...

Just, I looked at that link about the children. It’s heartbreaking. It is from January, but don’t expect it’s any better. I will send them some money. How do they go on every day, trying to teach hungry children?
And for anyone who wants to suggest that the moneys going on drugs, my answer is that might be so, in some cases, there is a big problem with opiates, but we used to have a functioning Social work system, and my own experience of Care proceedings last year showed me that the safety net is full of holes.

showed me that the safety net is full of holes.

When austerity was introduced I dont think anyone realised how chronically underfunded things were going to become except for the those whose sole income was benefits because we were already on the bones of our ass before it was introduced, but also the knock on effects of that lack of funding as people progressed through the health/care sector

I know Just, the story that the headteacher tells of parents unable to feed their children is awful, but if children see their parents going hungry too and doing their best, that’s a loving home albeit foul and unacceptable in one of the Worlds richest countries. It really concerns me that others may be living with neglect and emotional abuse, if their parents have money but choose different priorities, and that’s where the local authority needs to be involved, but can’t because they have no money and no staff.The child we care for was out of school and literally starving while their parent spent the money on wine. And despite concerns raised by the school and Camhs, for years, they were 14 before help came.

Anyone else feeling miserable af? The damage that people are willing to inflict to this country for 5 years is totally delusional. Still waiting to hear from pro Conservative posters who can tell me anything about a 5 year Tory government. If Labour lose and Corbyn stands down they will not even be able to say "not Corbyn" anymore. I think they need to be careful what they wish for.

I’m not sure how many Brunel students will be eligible to vote in Uxbridge. Brunel is very much a university for London kids who want to live at home instead of moving away. Often Asian kids.

And I don’t think they’re as left leaning as other universities either.

So not convinced they’ll be enough to unseat them. But it IS possible. They’re being very heavily told how much of a difference their vote makes. And for the first time Brunel has put on a shuttle bus to the polling station.

So, it is possible.

*their willingness is delusional

Thats shocking 3dogs, we need the Tories out but who knows what will happen but I suspect BCF is right, its the hope thats going to kill me with this election I swear

Blue
The Labour candidate in Uxbridge is the former Student Union President at Brunel

Speaking of British Asians, the Kashmir Dispute is being imported into British Politics, with British Hindus being bombarded with Vote Tory material on the grounds that Labour is pro-Muslim.

This is her

Faiza Shaheen
@faizashaheen
·
Nov 15
Oh PLEASE! I’ve been beating odds my entire life. Given my childhood I was more likely to end up with a drug addiction than a PhD. My mum named me Faiza meaning successful/winner for a reason.
And with thousands of people coming to support me we’ve got every chance! #labourgain
Quote Tweet

Dave Hill
@DaveHill
· Nov 15
Labour have high hopes of unseating IDS here, but the bookies don't like their chances (Con 1/4, Lab 5/2). Should they have picked an ardent Corbynite as candidate it this London Tory stronghold? tinyurl.com/yy45c58z twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1195291855031873541

Justanother
No, the chap in BJs seat is Afghan born.
THat lady is up against IDS ....

Listening - Ali was student union president before any of the current crop of students were there. So none of them actually know him from that.

oops yup sorry, iain dunked in shite on the brain sorry not envy boak

Ali Milani
@ARMilani_
·
Nov 13
“I was a student when the Lib Dem’s were last in a coalition. I don’t need a dodgy leaflet or bar-chart to remind me they lie.”

Labour can form a government and win this election 🌹

Me on #Preston tonight 👇🏼

twitter.com/i/status/1194763949738274818

Ali Milani
@ARMilani_
·
Nov 12
Is this the one where you got sacked for making up a quote? Or is that the other one?

Proper hard to keep up with you...
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Boris Johnson
@BorisJohnson
· Nov 12
Yesterday I popped into one of my first employers, the Express & Star.

All of the staff there do a really top job. Thank you for your great welcome!

Local newspapers are essential and are the political lifeblood of their communities.

expressandstar.com/news/politics/2019/11/12/boris-johnson-interview-investment-will-flood-into-west-midlands-after-brexit/?fbclid=IwAR1JuiU3crTKqORP2VTI_YnS2_HjwkxG5bRFDm84esvZbZh1tvGPpwhrZsU

he's quite funny

he's quite funny

Really? I suppose Labour supporters must have a peculiar sense of humour about certain things...

metro.co.uk/2019/11/05/labour-candidate-wants-boris-johnsons-seat-says-sorry-anti-semitic-tweet-11043940/

Labour’s candidate hoping he can unseat Boris Johnson in the upcoming election has apologised for anti-Semitic comments he made as a teenager.

He said: ‘I tweeted a number of things that were anti-Semitic when I was between the age of 16 and 17, around that age, and you know, everything from tropes and jokes that were deeply inappropriate, anti-Semitic and wrong.

Still funny now?

Blue
My thought process was that he knows more about the nature of the Student body at Brunel than Bozo's team

Can't get the link to open Just

BJ as a middle-aged adult, a Cabinet minister, made racist jokes
e.g.

made jokes about African children being "picaninnies"
about Muslim women in Burkhas "looking like letter boxes

Our Prime Minister - Still funny now?

Of course we all remember when the prime minister apologised for those comments don't we? Or are we still waiting?

Never get tired of watching this take down

Tory supporters

excuse a middle-aged Tory politician, who was a Cabinet minister, now Prime Minister .... for racist jokes

condemn a youth, who was then a nobody ..... for anti-semitic jokes

Tory supporters ..... and the most blatant double standards