Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Fading I think you'll find the percentage to remain in Scotland was significantly higher than NI.

And the Scots have had the least amount of say or influence in the Brexit discussions.

Interesting polls on Britain Elects...

Whereas LDs continue to fall slightly (down to 14% in both polls nationally) which I’m guessing is down to the GE concentrating minds over who to vote for and LDs aren’t in contention in 500+ constituencies, the polls for London are interesting... LDs in close second in Wimbledon, Kensington and (less so) Finchley.

Random yes that's true. I feel for Scottish people too, but at least you have a party that looks like it might gain a lot of seats and push for a ref to get back into the EU. It's so shit...Tory voters in England have our lives in their hands.😭😭

Fading
It was interesting driving through Northern Ireland (from Derry area across to Drogheda)
The posters all over the lamp posts made it clear that many many people are very very angry
BUT
I have to hope that people vote (as the Irish folks we talked to hope)
AGAINST the two extremist parties
and in favour of the parties who will take their seats and vote to protect their residents

I may have said this before: but I've met Dani Cotton. She is formidable, and definitely the person to have on your side in a crisis. She is being scapegoated; the real cause of Grenfell was those who made the costcutting decisions about not using the right sort of cladding, and not replacing it when it was brought to their attention.

Listening I hope so too...I have little hope for the hardcore unionists who would vote for the DUP even as they were driven to economic ruin as a result of the DUPs stupid actions. I'm not sure about nationalists. Reunification seems to have been energised.

I really like Naomi Long but she has a disgusting misogynist that I know personally within her party and not sure I can vote for them. But actually no...i will do whatever it takes to remain in the EU.

Oaken please can you give us a link to your London poll source?

Thanks for that yolo.

I’ve kept in touch with some firefighters I met when I volunteered for Grenfell. They all unanimously backed Dany in response to the report. And FFs can be quite sexist and macho. I got the impression they felt she made the call any FF leader would have done. I think they would have criticised her decisions in private if they felt she had done something wrong.

Comres for the Telegraph has Tory lead down to 8%
Seat predictor says this would give a paper-thin Tory majority of 4 seats

(yes I know, seat predictions are just a guestimate due to regional variations, tactical voting etc - but polls aren't consistent either)

who's rattled now ?

Farage, looking at this !
Looks like he's already crashed his 2nd party - that didn't take long

Also LDems being squeezed, as often happened in previous GEs

re Tory & Labour polling:
. wide variation between polling firms
. +/-3% error margin for sample size 1000
. a volatile electorate who may change their minds a lot by 12 Dec

Britain Elects@britainelects

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (+1)
LAB: 33% (+3)
LDEM: 14% (-2)
BREX: 5% (-2)
GRN: 2% (-1)

via @SavantaComRe, 13 - 14 Nov, Chgs. w/ 12 Nov

If we are going to have a wish-list of people to lose their seats, how about the chairman of ERG? His majority last election was 6,578 over Labour, and he got 50% of the votes polled. Johnson got 5,034 more than Labour and 50.8% of the votes. Surely if we can hope for one, we can hope for the other?

(with wildly crossed fingers)

Ah found it on Twitter Oaken

Fading
Every party has shits in it
but we have to keep our eyes on the bigger goal

yolo
The meejah and SM posts have been very bad IMHO
Dani got pulled apart for how she dealt with the fire
and there were significant faults in what she did
BUT
just wait till they get going on the building regs ....
Bolton Student hall last night will focus minds
I wonder why the Tories want that bit delayed till after the election

BXP prospects are bleak not just because of several polls, but mainly because Farage's decision to stand down / not stand down is tearing them apart
Most of them slagging off Farage

This was always likely to be the case if the Tories went for a GE on the basis of a deal for hard Brexit

Flying_Rodent@flying_rodent

Seems weird, how all of these previously unflappable right wing politicians go absolute full brain-lock gaga whenever they have to operate with the right wing press set against them.

It’s almost like they’re really shit at politics without a gigantic, noisy support group.

BCF I still can't quite believe that Labour voters in Leave areas will turn to the Tories in high numbers. I can see them staying at home rather than voting Tory.

That said I don't live in that type of seat so I don't know the strength of feeling.

If Brexit party vote falls away I'm not convinced it will go Tory's way.

If Brexit party vote falls away I'm not convinced it will go Tory's way.

Those which would have gone have largely already done so I believe. Those who remain BXP supporters are likely the UKIPs of old.

Friday 13th will be very interesting. Especially if a few Tory twats have lost their seats. We can but hope...

You say ComRes, I say Deltapoll and YouGov!

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (+4)
LAB: 30% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (-5)
BREX: 6% (-)

15 Point Tory Lead

via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 09 Nov

CON: 45% (+3)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 4% (-)

17 Point Tory Lead

via @YouGov
Chgs. w/ 12 Nov

Verdict: No Country For Old Socialist Men

Cendrillon why do you want the Tories to win so much?

random imo a few traditional Labour voters might vote Tory just for Brexit, but only a few
I agree, more likely to stay home

The question is whether this is enough to hold nearly all Labour seats

• because that would be enough to get a hung Parliament

With the Tories expected to lose 20+ of their 2017 seats to the SNP and LDems,
their strategy to get a working majority is to win 50+ Labour / Tory marginals

So, regardless of national polls, the GE probably depends on what the percentages are in those crucial 50 Labour seats

We need to see polling data from there - possibly the parties have this, but we may never see it.

Well, that's obvious, because she's a Tory !

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/16/election-2019-london-polls-show-lib-dem-surge

A member of the party do you mean BCF?

Most Tory supporters can excuse anything from their side:

Massive Russian donations & influence
Allegedly trying to bribe BXP candidates to stand down - a specific criminal offence
RIsking massive damage to the economy by a hard Brexit
Already caused massive damage to the NHS, care services
Deaths due to benefits being denied to the seriously ill or disabled

.... doesn't make them blink
because tax cuts for the better off are more important than any of that