Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Re: taking polls with a bucket pinch of salt, do we trust Yougov?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/04/tory-mp-nadhim-zahawi-tax-haven-balshore-berkford-investments-gibraltar

And this...theconversation.com/do-biased-polls-skew-elections-experimental-evidence-says-yes-121651

LQ 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Oakenbeach There are a number of floating voters, who might well prefer the LDems,
but in the absence of a LDem will hold their noses and vote Labour or Ind Tory or whatever

I expect Swinson's decision could let the Tories win 3-4 seats they might not otherwise win
It probably won't make any difference to who forms the govt, but I completely disapprove of her policy

She may reassure a few wavering ex-Tories, but she will piss off a lot of wavering Labour voters who might be considering voting LDem in Tory-LDem marginals.

She is confirming the suspicions of many in the centre and the left of centre,
that the LDems are liberal Tories - the ones not clever enough to get into the Tory party (low hurdle)

The anger over student fees and supporting austerity had faded, but instead of rebuilding bridges she has been burning them again.

I wonder if she is positioning the LDems to be like the German FDP, who are part of ALDE (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe) in the EP.
The FDP are very liberal socially, but economically ruthless and much to the right of Merkel
Not my taste at all
I didn't even consider voting for them in the EP - I voted CDU after seriously considering the SPD

Still Chilled out pussycat

Someone on the last thread asked about when/if Indyref2 would happen if there was a Conservative proper majority.

I know that there has been a lot of noise/pressure from some SNP members about a Plan B (which as far as I can make out, involves an unsanctioned Referendum) which the leadership team is adamant won't happen.

I get the impression that Plan B will be much more nuanced, with a variety of approaches, from being right pains in the arses at WM using every legitimate (and on occasion arcane) procedure to be obstructive (following the example of the Irish MPs in the early 20th century) to pushing the democratic deficit and right to self-determination under the UN charter via the UN and the Council of Europe (especially if the Conservatives are pretty much wiped out again in Scotland).

Truth is, I don't really know what their Plan B is - they're keeping it pretty close to their chest, if they have one at all which I think they do

How do you volunteer to be a driver for infirm/non driving voters?

I voted green in the locals. Kept the tory out :)
Labour in the mep elections. Bit of a wasted vote really. Grease smugs sister got a seat for bxp.
Labour this time.
All I can do is hope

I think on a local party level Hooo . My dad did it a few times for his CLP

Ok thanks

PMK

DrBlackbird
That's really interesting, thanks

Far too much emphasis on polls and pronouncements such as Curtice's with a month still to go

There are a number of floating voters, who might well prefer the LDems,
but in the absence of a LDem will hold their noses and vote Labour or Ind Tory or whatever

Equally, a floating voter who would never vote Labour but doesn’t rate BJ, sees there’s no LD option and votes Tory (lesser of two evils), therefore reducing the likelihood of a Labour win. You may think that a voter would
have to be crazy to do that, but it’s no more bizarre than the scenario I outlined above.

It works both ways...

I’m not a LD supporter, but harsh as their tactics may seem, they have it spot on.

Lib Dems are Tory Light imo.

But if they stop Brexit that's good imo.

It is such a mess now, that I think it is best that Johnson and the Tories have to clean up the detritus of Brexit. And it will be an almighty mess to clean up too.

Let them at it. I give 18 months myself before they throw in the towel.

Wishful thinking I suppose. They have supporters from afar who want Brexit too, as we all know.

I am secretly wishing ddddd

oops finger on the button for too long there sorry.

Secretly wishing that it all ends in failure for the Tories if elected. Anyway, onwards and upwards.

Here's hoping the good people of Uxbridge vote the lying bastard out.

Ellie56,

I think he had a majority of around 5k last time out, and Heathrow extension lies were added to his portfolio. Will be interesting to see.

I thought he was going to parachute himself into the safe seat of a Tory retiree/escapist. I must keep up.

@BigChocFrenzy

Why aren’t you as angry that Labour is standing in St Ives?! Surely that’s no different, only a Tory/LD super-marginal. Double standards in spades!

Thanks Red. I remember some tactical voting going on with High Peak where we swapped votes with others so to speak in order to help labour get in there which they did. I can't remember the exact details though. That was the time I started getting politically aware and arranged a proxy vote as I was on holiday. Who held HP before labour?

Every time someone mentions a constituency I halve to look it up. The worst is when they aren’t named, maybe just a candidates name given. I do hope that the labour candidate in St Ives is taking it easy.

a previous hater of Corbyn

He's a rubbish leader but good at elections. Whether he can work this magic again this time, we will have to see.

Who held HP before labour?

I think it was Tory the previous time and then Labour before that - held by a man who went to my school and I hadn't seen since he was a 14 year old school boy, despite our two families being friends.

Yes that's right Outsomnia - he had a 5000 majority in 2017 as opposed to the 10,000 majority he had in 2015.

From what I've read the young Labour candidate is pulling out all the stops to oust Johnson.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/hes-got-a-battle-on-his-hands-could-uxbridge-unseat-boris-johnson

How can you say he is a rubbish leader and want him to win. I really hope Labour is pushed into the long grass this time with their sit on the fence stance and their Marxist Chancellor.

pmk, with usual thanks to all regular contributors, cats and flowers.

I do think the Tories dont want to actually win - Boris' king of the world position aside - because at the moment there is no 'win' unless you are a hedgefunder.

The devil on my shoulder says c'mon Tories, win it and own your shit. The angel on the other shoulder says vote Lab for a reasonable position - I'm quite happy with being asked to vote in another ref on a deal which protects existing rights vs remain.

Meanwhile, I'm in pig in a blue rosette country.

I haven't said I want him to win. I want a hung Parliament and ideally a proper Government of National Unity with Corbyn not considered for the role of PM. He can still remain as Labour leader - after all, he's what the paid up members voted for.

The trouble with Tories owning their own shit, is that they won't, they will spread it around on the rest of us.