Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

PMK

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/14/concerns-about-antisemitism-mean-we-cannot-vote-labour

JC and BJ are both 'anyone but him' type leaders. A lot of people are appalled by the choice.

I can see the rationale behind the lib dem stance, even if I don't wholly agree with it.

Lib dems are central. As much labour-lite as Tory-lite. I think there are lots of conservative voters who would never in a million years vote labour, but would vote lib dem. And same for labour voters.

I get really pissed off with some labour voters acting as if labour are the only alternative. Labour are pretty much unelectable at the mo. Many loyal labour voters I know won't vote while Corbyn is in power.

This whole personality politics is toxic. Swinson is not comparable to Johnson. She doesnt routinely lie for starters. And imo she seems more competent than JC. Don't understand why she gets so much hate.

Labour pledging free broadband for all. Good idea.

This whole personality politics is toxic. Swinson is not comparable to Johnson. She doesnt routinely lie for starters. And imo she seems more competent than JC. Don't understand why she gets so much hate.

Because she won’t meekly submit to bring Corbyn’s poodle and make the LDs a Labour subsidiary.

We've got 5 on our list of confirmed candidates. We are in pig with a blue rosette territory but interestingly the description for Lib dems is Liberal Democrats - to stop Brexit. We can but hope that some people may void their vote if that appears on the ballot sheet!

Labour’s free broadband is just bonkers. What next? Free power, free cars. just higher taxes and more debt.

I hate Johnson and cannot vote Tory but cannot vote Labour either.

Oakenbeach Although I've always been centrist, I've long had a problem with LDems - the party that should be my natural home
It's fundamental: I don't trust them wrt children

The Liberal leader for years when I was growing up, was Jeremy Thorpe - and with close friends in Devon we heard for years about his liking for young boys, long before the conspiracy to murder case

The National Liberal Club in London was notorious at the time for abuse of young boys

The've a long history of covering up for their abusers, like Cyril Smith, who was actually observed molesting a 14-yr-old boy at a bloody LDem meeting - they did nothing

I hoped they'd sorted finally themselves out
Now I just can't get past the AImee Challoner situation - which has been rumbling on since July

They have a problem with paedophiles, like Labour has with anti-semitism and Tories have with Islamophobia.

I'm sorry to sound agricultural but the political scene is like a dirty sheep shed. We need the shed cleared out, hosed down and then disinfected.
It's going to take decades.

Agree derxa

It's a fucking shitshow.

I think people like to think LibDem are centrist. But when it comes to it I'm not sure they are.

I don't want Swinson to be Corbyn's poodle. Or anybody's. I just don't think LibDem's behaviour adds up to their stated aim which is to remain or revoke. It's too party political for that. They will enable a Tory majority this way. Presumably they think that they can distance their selves from that result.

But if we get 5 years Tory majority what will be left of the country?

Labour’s free broadband is just bonkers.

Please explain why? Access to jsa/universal credit requires you to have internet so saving the poorest money in an ever increasing online world

Britain has less than 10% iirc of houses connected to high speed broadband, compare that to somewhere like Japan that has somewhere in the low 90's % Britain has to start catching up with the world in tech

Sadly, I think all the parties have their problems with abusers..... Whether they have been rooted out now, well we can hope so.

I can see that actually when it comes down to it, people here aren't able to come together to stop a hard brexit, never mind brexit altogether. So, it's going to happen.
If you can't put aside party politics, we end up with brexit.

peregrina Labour and Tory have both had umpteen scandals involving adults
not a serious of scandals involving children or vulnerable young adults

I used to work in telecoms (selling the really big stuff to my company's competitors including BT because we didn't all have network everywhere and it was advantageous to buy/sell from each other in certain circumstances I was good at seeing the bigger strategic picture ).

"Free full fibre broadband to every household" is undeliverable will cost a fucking fortune

I live in inner city Glasgow - but my street doesn't have full fibre in it (only to the closest cabinet) because it wasn't feasible for NTL (who at the time were the biggest alternate fibre provider) to dig along our "low housing density" street (iirc, their licence commitment was to reach 90% of households). So the fibre has a short spur off the main road, but stops over 200m away. Digging up the rest of the street - for either BT or Virgin - would cost a fucking fortune for (say) just 40 houses/80 households (the majority of these big Victorian villas have been divided in two).

Pmk

Don't disagree that high speed broadband should be made more widely available but that is not the same as "full fibre broadband to every household".

That's just politicians trying to sound like they know something about it - and proving that they don't.

I always love it when Ed weighs in, which isnt often enough IMO

Ed Miliband
@Ed_Miliband
·
3m
We’ve all been there: ‘oh no how do we respond to this?...blah blah, competition, growth, undesirable...gigabit’...oh dear.
Quote Tweet

Nicky Morgan
@NickyMorgan01
· 34m
Corbyn’s Labour are yet again overpromising something they cannot deliver effectively nationalising broadband - killing growth & competition. We want everyone in the UK to benefit from world-class gigabit connectivity no matter where they live or work by 2025 twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1195102091901054976

As JC has been mentioned I discovered a JC fan account on twittter this week "Is Sir John Curtice on tv?" . Bit of light relief in these dark times.

Labour candidates for Streatham (sp?) and Bournemouth East have been announced if that helps anyone

"Downing Street rang Brexit Party candidates and offered them jobs in a bid to get them to stand down, Nigel Farage has claimed"

Have we received any more evidence since, other than Farage's claim
e.g. specific BXP candidates giving the name / position of who phoned them, when this was and offering which job ?

It doesn't seem to shock anyone, whereas with a normal govt & PM it would be scandalous blazing headlines