Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

I live somewhere with excellent access to full fibre broadband - because it was funded by the EU due to the level of social deprivation here. The benefit is more to business than individual households, but it's a rural area and a lot of people work from home, so that benefit is not insignificant. While I agree that rolling it out to every household in the country is ambitious I can see the benefit to rural areas especially.

@BigChocFrenzy

You don’t need to convince me... I have disagreed vehemently with the LDs on these threads many times, and have issues with their revoke policy, self-ID and I’m disappointed they’re not more moderate.

Labour always likely to do better turning the debate onto non-Brexit policies

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

....Labour are going to commit to free broadband for every household, by nationalising BT.
I understand it will be full fibre broadband, which the vast majority of households don’t have.

Not since 1945 has a political party gone into an election pledging so much nationalisation and feeling so confident about it as a vote winner.
< without Corbyn, it would be >

Labour will sell as egalitarian issue- as today a basic human need.
Suspect will be v popular
But will be expensive- suspect govt would have to take on openreach as well as BT.
And presumably pension liabilities for both companies...

Leave aside the ins and outs of the policy, which will doubtless be examined in great detail over the coming days;
the fact that Labour feels able to go into an election pledging to essentially reverse a Thatcher era privatisation shows how far politics has moved.

Clarification:
plan is just to nationalise openreach, not BT wholesale.

The fact that this is now v likely to dominate the conversation for at least a while, is likely to be a win for Labour...

But 2 ways this could go:

1. more ideological dominance of debate for Lab.
   Tories on the run.
   Voters like retail offer.

2. voters think it’s too good to be true/money could be better spent in other areas.

Either way, if this is taster of manifesto it’s going to be a radical one

Next 24 hours and air war/framing crucial.

Nicola Sturgeon and Jeremy Corbyn have strong heartfelt beliefs. I would never vote for them but I do respect them. It's all the carpetbaggers I hate. If MPs were paid a decent wage - would that make a difference?

Fgs. Free broadband? Wonder who will pay for this? Why would anyone then buy from Sky and Virgin? Is he going to nationalise them too.

He is completely bonkers.

Why not free gas and electricity while we’re at it?

Not since 1945 has a political party gone into an election pledging so much nationalisation and feeling so confident about it as a vote winner. < without Corbyn, it would be >

So yes, the most extreme programme of nationalisation since 1945 - with the broadband nationalisation alone likely to cost tens of billions.

Still pretending Corbynite Labour is “moderate”?

This is a strong argument for abolishing the HoL or making it elected, like a Senate
it has always been used by PMs to reward people, but this is ridiculous

Farage now saying the Tories offered EIGHT peerages to BXP

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Nigel Farage alleges that figures from Number 10 (strongly hinting at Dominic Cummings) tried to offer eight senior figures in the Brexit Party peerages

if they got him to agree to stand down in remaining seats/

he says BXP will be contesting 300+

Labour is planning to reverse some, not all, of the Thatcher changes

That's moderate

The policies are standard socialism because - shock, horror - Labour are a socialist party, not a centrist one

We can't have fibre for at least 9 houses in our street as would involve digging up neighbours drives due to the way the houses were built. We asked Virgin and they told us they couldn't touch anyone else's property.

But is Nigel still getting a peerage for the 300 odd candidates he stood down the other day?

Labour is planning to reverse some, not all, of the Thatcher changes
That's moderate

Only if you live in a fantasy land and don’t know the meaning of the word.

Friday papers have the Farage allegations about No 10

The policies are standard socialism because - shock, horror - Labour are a socialist party, not a centrist one

And there’s nothing moderate about socialism based on mass nationalisations!

Many leading on NHS A&E waiting times

Born are you in the Midlands? We were ok where we are but all around us was bad. It's already been flooded but a lot worse now. And will kmost likely deteriorate over the next few days.

I just got wet feet on school run.

Conservatism: Thatcher did mass privatisations - at below market value, so windfalls for the boys

Socialism: Corbyn is trying to reverse some of these privatisations

One party does something; quite normal that the other party reverses it all
That's how buggins turn / FPTP works

However, because Blair was Thatcher-lite, he didn't do the usual reversing
which is why it has come as a shock and there are many years of Tory policies to reverse

I hope he prioritises stopping the horrific treatment of disability claimants first

• but the media probably won't find that sexy enough to give much space

"Track how your constituency has voted over the years by selecting it from the drop down menu below."

news.sky.com/story/general-election-2019-how-safe-is-your-mps-seat-11847672

However, because Blair was Thatcher-lite, he didn't do the usual reversing which is why it has come as a shock and there are many years of Tory policies to reverse

Funny how sanguine you are about a return to 1970s socialism in the UK, while cheerfully voting for the centre-right CDU where it will actually affect you and your finances...

There already is a fund to rollout full fibre in rural areas where it’s not economic. In cities and large towns the fibre rollout is already happening but there is a physical limit to how quickly it can happen given the need for engineers to dig up every street.

This policy is economically illiterate and makes me worried about Labour’s economic sense.

I bet Johnson tries to top it though

Happy to vote for a party here that will tax my family more to spend on better services for the country.

tobee

Motheroffourdragons

If only there were a way for only those people gullible enough to vote for such taxes to be liable to pay them...

You just don't get it.

Labour’s free broadband is just bonkers.

Yep. Insane.

Idea of nationalised broadband isn't bad until you think how that would effect BTs competitors. Good luck with the legal on that...

Bt are a staple share for pensions as they are regarded as 'safe'.

They also happen to be the only shares DH has. (I have none).

The government wouldn't pay over the odds for shares and if you think DH would be happy just handing the over, you are in la la land.