Westminstenders: The Non-Pact Pact

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party and the Conservatives have agreed a trumpian pact to no deal. Led by the ERG.

They don't want you to know its a pact because the Conservatives still want One Nation Conservatives types to believe they are still One Nation Conservatives, simply because they say they are. They are not.

The Brexit Party won't stand any candidates in a Conservative held seat. But don't be surprised if there isn't more Non-Pact tactical stepping aside. This of course won't be a Pact. Cos the Brexit Party say its not. And the Conservative Party say its not.

The Liberal Democrats, Plaid and the Greens are in an electoral pact. They say they are in an electoral pact and have published a list.

Meanwhile the Labour Party isn't in a Pact. But there is still talk that in key seats that someone (either the LDs or Labour) should stand aside to try and deseat key Conservatives. This won't happen because the Lib Dems and Labour are not in a pact. And when they say they are not in a pact they aren't.

If after an election we have a hung parliament then either the Conservatives or Labour who are not in a pact and say they will never be in a pact, will try and woo someone to a kingmaker and be in government with them, probably on a supply and demand basis rather than coalition. They'll deny this but we kind of know how this goes...

I've messaged the independant candidate.

I think he might be young. And hot.

Jo Swinson tells the FT she would sooner push the UK into another general election than put Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson into Downing Street in the event of a hung parliament.

That's nice dear ...

👍 Fading

Hooo

Jo swinson really is a deluded bint, isn't she?

I doubt if anyone would want another election so soon, although if no one can form a Government I suppose it might happen. I doubt too whether the parties could afford it.

The tories can.

All those lovely rubles....

But for once, the Scottish MPs might make all the difference, as they did during the last Parliament. Although not the same Scottish party.... I hope there is a Tory wipe out in Scotland.

This is fair enough, but surely the thought of a bunch of incompetent disaster capitalists and proto-fascists in cabinet should concentrate minds.

The error people are making is to forget that the risk of a Johnson majority govt is quite high (at least 50% chance), whereas the risk of a Corbyn majority govt is almost zero.

It focuses the mind on unseating the Tories - which in some constituencies will not be Labour. In my case Labour is in second place but LD is not so far behind that it couldn’t swing their way.

For me analysing Labour and LD is partly a process of being absolutely clear in what one is actually voting for, and of trying to fathom which way people are likely to jump.

I’m not comfortable with any whitewashing of Labour’s severe problems just because there’s no alternative. There seems to be a lot of well they’re almost Remain because of the PV, or AS is just smears, Corbyn’s got principles. I don’t believe any of those things to be true.

Jo Swinson tells the FT she would sooner push the UK into another general election than put Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson into Downing Street in the event of a hung parliament.

Delusion personified.

Let's hope so peregrina

And what a surprise, Boris is standing for election in ......... Uxbridge! Looks like all those insinuations about him jumping constituencies were a load of rubbish after all...

It focuses the mind on unseating the Tories - which in some constituencies will not be Labour.

Well, for sure. But isn't that a bit of a strawman argument? There are only a small minority of people on here arguing that only a Labour vote will do. Personally I'd vote for anyone - including the independent tories - to stop CON getting a majority.

Delusion personified

I don’t understand what is delusional about JS’s comment

Isn’t she just saying she won’t enter a coalition with JC or BJ therefore there would have to be another election PDQ

There’s virtually zero chance of a Labour majority so it’s quite likely she will end up in this position, unless BJ gets a majority

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/14/campaign-genius-nigel-farage-has-totally-self-partnered-himself

Johnson standing in Uxbridge? Great!

Isn’t she just saying she won’t enter a coalition with JC or BJ therefore there would have to be another election PDQ

This isn't necessarily true though. Depends how many seats the LDs get and how many short of a majority LAB are. SNP will have more seats than the LDs under most plausible scenarios.

Soo want to see the shiftless fecker get his electoral arse handed to him on a plate.

I'm TELLING you!...
Boris and the Tories don't want to win this...

One of the Independent candidates standing against the sitting piece of shit in Uxbridge is a Brit in the EU. He can't vote in the election, but he is allowed to stand as a PC, on a platform of "don't vote Tobin, let Tobin vote".

Asa Bennett @ asabenn
Sir John Curtice dismissive of the Berxit Party's prospects of taking Labour seats: "What's the evidence that Nigel Farage can win a seat anywhere in Labour territory? Please tell me - I do not know where it exists.""

More truth bombs from John Curtice: "The chances of the Labour Party winning a majority are frankly as close to zero as one can safely say"

From the Guardian live feed

Chances of Labour majority 'as close to zero as it is possible to be', says John Curtice
Peter Walker

We have received a briefing from the monarch of UK psephologists, Prof Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University, about what might happen in the election, and the short version is this: while there are many imponderables in play, it seems a toss-up between a Boris Johnson majority and a hung parliament.

Curtice said it was “pretty much a binary contest” between the two. And what of a Labour majority? The answer will not be welcomed by Jeremy Corbyn:

"The chances of a Labour majority are as close to zero as it is possible to be."

He said the issues for Labour included Corbyn’s personal unpopularity with voters (although he also noted that Johnson was “the most unpopular new prime minister in polling history”), and the fact that they had lost both remain and leave votes through a middle-ground approach to Brexit. Curtice said:

"Where they have demonstrated Blairite moderation is the one issue on which you shouldn’t demonstrate Blairite moderation, as it won’t get you anywhere."

The current Tory lead of about 10 percentage points would most likely be enough for Boris Johnson, Curtice said.

With a 10-point lead, however you look at it, if that was to transpire in the ballot box it would be highly likely the Conservatives would win a majority of a size that would be sufficient to get the withdrawal treaty through.

But given the likelihood the Tories will lose a “fair chunk” of seats in Scotland and to the Lib Dems, Johnson needed to keep the lead above about six or seven percentage points:

"If it get below that, the odds are beginning to swing in favour of a hung parliament. So be aware: just because the Tories are ahead in the polls, it doesn’t mean to say that Boris is going to get a majority."

The key battle in northern Tory target seats, he said, would be for the Conservatives to hang on to gains made by Theresa May in 2017, and for the Lib Dems to take seats from Labour. Curtice said: “Boris Johnson would love the Liberal Democrats to go up.”

The one exception to the binary end point, he noted, would be the very particular result where the Tories won 320 or so seats, just below a working majority, and the DUP held the balance. With the Northern Irish party wanting neither to support Corbyn or back Johnson’s Brexit deal, this could bring a new deadlock.

Agree, Bearbehind.

Jo Swinson tells the FT she would sooner push the UK into another general election than put Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson into Downing Street in the event of a hung parliament.

I’d be happy with that! I really don’t want either BJ or JC as PM. Judging by their popularity in the polls (not to mention views expressed on here) I’m not alone.

Yes, it would be a pain, but if it concentrates minds and gets a leadership change - in Labour in particular - a few months pain to work things through would be better than five years of either of them.