The Brexit Arms

[BrexitArmsLandlady]

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Go BoJo!
Go BoJo!
Go BoJo!
Go BoJo!

So near & yet so far..............

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EEA/EFTA is more acceptable than the WA as it doesn't have the one-sided exit clause of the Backstop. The irony is that the EU could come up with an extension proposal which is even more binding than the Backstop.

The LibDems, SNP, Greens and Plaid cannot now support the WA, having positioned as full Remain. Labour, having backed a GE plus 2nd Ref can't back the WA. The 40 or so who were inclined to do so would end up alienating their Remain and Leave supporters and anyone who is Labour first and neutral on Brexit.

Dominic Grieve and his fellow hard core Tory Remainers didn't and wouldn't vote for WA. ERG plus would not now back WA.

I also cannot see why any of these groups would now support EEA/EFTA? They have all backed themselves into All or nothing. It may well be the case that many Tories are neither here nor there on Brexit but that does not represent the views of their membership or voters (see EU election and election of Boris as Leader).

Just because MPs backed WA as a way out under TM does not mean they view it or EEA/EFTA that way now - they are worried about losing votes to LibDems and Brexit Party and this position makes it almost certain they would lose on both counts.

Mystery I thought the deal already offered wasn't Brexit

Labour voted against it almost unanimously three times as they claimed it didn't meet their six tests. Garbage of course as at the time they wanted an election because they thought they had a chance of winning.

So they sabotaged everything conservatives suggested in the hope of blackening the conservatives. Now they are third in the polls they don't want an election.

And forgive me if I'm wrong but I thought Brexiteers wanted No Deal. All 17.4 million of them - well I've seen that mentioned so many times. It is after all the Will of the People

Leaving is will of the people. Some will be happy with no deal, but I don't think it is all 17.4 million. Even Johnson and Mogg voted for the WA third time around.

So how is that the fault of the remainers?

If remain parties prevent a withdrawal agreement from passing through parliament then a deal can't be made

Any remainer MP would support leaving the EU via EFTA/EAA, few if any leaver MPs would

Labour MP Emily Thornberry said if labour was in power she would negotiate a good deal with EU and then have a referendum that has remain as an option and then campaign for remain! Labour, LibDems, Greens and SNP are remain parties who will vote against any withdrawal agreement with the object of overturning the result of the 2016 referendum.

Without a withdrawal agreement there will never be a deal.

Howabout - I think by going for EEA/EFTA it allows climb down space for many.

It's not the 'hated WA' so ERG can possibly climb down (it's still leaving the EU & opens the possibility for complete break in future).

It gives both Tories & Labour the space to say 'we respected the result' whilst still retaining close enough association.

The only real roadblocks to a deal at all is the anti-brexit hardline remainers & the hardline no-dealers

For the electorate at large it shows that democracy is still working & I suspect the majority will be ok with it.

There will always be the extremist remain & extremist no-deal proponents but they are not the majority

Feel like I am repeating myself from years ago but looks like many still unaware. EEA/EFTA does not solve Northern Ireland / Ireland border.
Why?

EEA/EFTA excludes fishing, agriculture and customs. That is 99% of the problem.

And that's why a time limited CU membership is necessary as part of transition period, until future relationship is ratified (FTA, customs arrangement etc)

Dusty what you say would have been true in 2016 and was even what Hannan and (I think) Farage were suggesting. However the politics changed when Remainers bet the House on reversing the result. I blame Tony Blair and the PV campaign. But then if it hadn't been for Gina Miller and the Supreme Court TM would have signed up to "EEA for now and semi-permanent transition" without bothering to even consult Parliament.

If a "temporary" customs union were agreed why would the EU ever agree to a FTA alternative?

SNP ramping up pressure on Labour and LibDem and Tory rebels to go for VoNC. Indicating they think JC is the natural caretaker choice but would accept anyone else - even Grieve.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49863544

Getting a Deal by 31 Oct does not seem to be in anyone's playbook atm-according to Katya the EU are unlikely to negotiate as they can see this.

Just appeared on Twitter - Sky News - letters appeared on gov.uk late last night:

1. Brexit Sec Barclay says “insufficient time to complete work” to plan no deal mitigations if left till last days of October
2. Asks for Commission to allow bilateral (eg UK-Fr etc) prep
3. Barnier says No - pass WA

howabout However the politics changed when Remainers bet the House on reversing the result.
The politics changed when Theresa May started slinging down her red lines, screaming about citizens of nowhere and talking about red, white and blue Brexits. In other words, when she started fawning over the Brextremists, thus ensuring that a sensible compromise could not be found and that divisions were well and truly stoked.

TM would have signed up to "EEA for now and semi-permanent transition" without bothering to even consult Parliament

No evidence for that, May made it perfectly clear brexit meant no SM, CU or ECJ, that rules out EEA.
Back then, an independent trade policy was the reason for brexit, rules out any form of CU.

May wouldn't move on more worker and environmental alignment, ruling out SM too.

Common Market 2 was blocked by ERG votes, hence Nick Bowles resigning from the party, his short resignation speech said his party wouldn't compromise.

Leavers rewriting history again!
Own your own disaster! you voted for chaos by stupidly believing unsubstantiated promises made by brexitiers, took no notice of NI and thinking the UK could extract itself from 40 + years of close economic and political integration with the EU - all within 2 years!

Everything leave said would happen, hasn't and yet you re still too pig headed to have the humility to accept you were conned.

fwiw if the art 50 period was 10 years, i might have voted leave too but it wasn't, so i didn't.

@Parker231

Labour and LibDems will vote against any WA as they don’t want Brexit at all.

No WA = No deal

Mystery - I don’t want Brexit at all - it’s wrong but people don’t/won’t realise how bad it’s going to be for them.

Parker that sounds very much like EU brinkmanship which will doubtless precipitate No Deal - however it won't because there will be a VoNC, an extension and a GE. When that is all done it won't be Barnier who will be leading negotiations. Problem for UK is that neither Barnier, nor the EU as an entity, has a mandate to agree to anything other than the WA till after 31 Oct. That is why there will not and could never have been a new / tweaked Deal. Whatever Boris proposed would make no difference. Hunt or even Rory bending over backwards would also have made No Difference.

Everything leave said would happen, hasn't and yet you re still too pig headed to have the humility to accept you were conned

Nothing can happen until UK leaves EU. As long as UK is an EU member it is prevented from making trade deals with non EU countries. Also UK must continue to pay EU subscription of £1 Billion net per month. So no Brexit dividend as it is called until UK leaves EU.

howabout - I’ll be happy with an extension - a very long one. The EU have mentioned two years - might be enough time for the UK to sort themselves out.

jasjas if we signed the WA the Art50 transition period would be upwards of 50 years.

Worth pointing out there is no such thing as No Deal or WA as a Deal. The question now is whether you think No Deal as the starting point leads to a concentration of minds and a willingness to come to pragmatic solutions. Given the unwillingness to compromise during the 3 years since 2016, this looks like a more reasonable assumption than the counter suggestion that the WA is a smoothing vehicle rather than ushering in permanent uncertainty.

Mystery - I don’t want Brexit at all - it’s wrong but people don’t/won’t realise how bad it’s going to be for them

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. However, democracy is only preserved when majority vote is honoured.

Article 49 allows a member who has previously left EU to rejoin. So if after Brexit people think it is not going as well as they thought, they can vote for parties whose policy is to rejoin EU.

I’ll be happy with an extension - a very long one. The EU have mentioned two years - might be enough time for the UK to sort themselves out

Typical remain comment. Let’s prolong it as long as possible in the hope brexit goes away.

Prolonged extension is damaging as it also prolong some uncertainty. Pound will remain weak. UK based companies may leave UK due to uncertainty. Service sector is particularly vulnerable as they can be relocated easily.

Prolonged extension by EU without reasons, such as referendum or a general election in UK, will be interpreted as fear on part of EU in that they don’t want to lose their third largest donor.

No Deal as the starting point leads to a concentration of minds and a willingness to come to pragmatic solutions

Fatal to take no deal off the table as allows EU to put UK through a mince meat grinder.

It also goes against Article 50 which allows no deal.

@Mystery - I’m an Accountant in a global consulting firm - I know how businesses and the economy works. I’ve already started relocating one client out of the UK due to Brexit and more businesses will follow. Brexit will damage the UK economy, the housing market, pension values, significantly increase job losses and hurt individuals.

I’m an Accountant in a global consulting firm - I know how businesses and the economy works

If you can forecast the future with certainty you would not need to work at all as you would be able to clean up on the stock market everyday.

I don’t need to be able to forecast the future to know the disaster which is Brexit. It’s basic common sense, an understanding of how businesses now operate and how trade deals are formulated.

I don’t need to be able to forecast the future

Contradicts

to know the disaster which is Brexit

Saying that an event, Brexit, which has not yet happened or ever happened in the past is a forecast of the future with certainty.

So I will ask again;

Why aren’t you cleaning up on the stock market everyday if you can forecast the future with certainty?