Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

The Wetherspoons guy was on the BBC World Service. He literally said -I'm not lying about this - that a no deal Brexit would be "amazing".

He isn't telling lies though, as it would be amazing for him.

No tax investigation by the EU into his company / tax affairs, lessening of workers rights in Wetherspoons, raking in the cash while he lives abroad not having to suffer any fallout.

I don't trust any of them.

Well considering Farage used to be a Tory I sometimes wonder if he has some insider knowledge no one wants him to come out with? He could be biding his time on spilling something big and Russian I would assume.

I was wondering last night if perhaps people who are typical Kipper types might be somewhat emboldened by the idea that new warfare is unlikely to be similar to WWI/WWII in that it could be more trade based? So rather than the Tories subscribing the poorest, the richest are now more likely to be hit as businesses and industries crumble? Yes, it means they are out of work but they know we have benefits (and no, they are not usually the type to use them and usually bash their users but have been repeatedly told you can buy a huge TV with benefits!)...so it doesn't seem to be as scary any more. There's an increasing attitude of "that doesn't scare me" about things that actually really should.

He could be biding his time on spilling something big and Russian I would assume.

The other day a journalist was pestering NF about the ultimate source of his £460k personal funding in 12 months, Aaron Banks etc.
When asked where the money was from the Faragist replied jokingly
" Russia".

I did wonder if it was a case of many a true word spoken in jest... in risu veritas.

Rory Stewart on Today giving a careful and nuanced interview re his standing for leader. Points out that withdrawal agreement has to be signed come what may (no pun intended). Says he would not serve under Boris or any no dealer, might have to consider party membership.

Now Fox talking bollocks.

Well perhaps not entirely bollocks, but near enough.

Hers an interesting fact I just posted on another thread...

JRM -24 May 1969
age 50 years

JC -69 years but tomorrow 70 26 May 1949

Summer babies 20 years apart.

I was just reading who some Guardian commentators would pick as the next PM. Martha Gill comes out in favour of Rory Stewart. My inclination would be to agree that he is one of the better ones in a poor field, and outsiders often come and snatch the prize.

Rory Stewart sounds like the kind of leader they need. Which is exactly why he won't get the job. If he gets it, why don't the others (or do they, but it doesn't serve their purpose to let on they know)?

PM of the current U.K. ain't no prize though.

Rory Stewart does come across as thoughtful and realistic.

The Tory party may wish to disprove the belief that no one could be a worse PM than May or Cameron, by electing Boris 🤦🏻‍♀️

They would then have the unique record of having produced the 3 worst PMs in UK history, all within 3 years 🤯

Kevin Schofield
@PolhomeEditor
Rory Stewart: “I could not serve with Boris Johnson.”
Says he had a 25 minute conversation with Boris Johnson recently after which he believed he would not go for a no-deal Brexit. Yesterday, Johnson said the UK will leave “deal or no deal”.

Who do we want as Tory leader ?

It’s like choosing your favourite venereal disease
🤮

Rory Stewart seems fairly decent for a Tory. Apparently he speaks 10 languages and Brad Pitt has bought the rights to make his life into a film.

Rory Stewart does seem entirely too sane and thoughtful to stand a chance of winning.

Brad Pitt has bought the rights to make his life into a film.

Imagine swapping other candidates names into that sentence! Would Brad Pitt pay for the rights to an Andrea Leadsom biopic for example!!

Is anyone listening to John McDonnell now. Pivoting towards a PV. We must listen to our members, risk of hard Brexit PM, tough choices blah blah.

Rory Stewart would fall into the category of being a traitorous UnBeLeaver, just as Theresa did (the circle of True BeLeavers having become smaller and more extreme in the intervening years, like a revolutionary cult).

That's interesting re McDonnell. Getting in ahead of the EP results?

I can't see Boris becoming leader. I just can't.

I'm pretty much ignoring what they're saying now anyway. Theresa May, once elected, was harping on about 'no deal will be better than a bad deal' and how she wasn't scared to leave with no deal. Turns out she was crapping her pants about no deal.

Righto, am off for a 6 hr train journey, back late Tues.
Only have mobile so unlikely to check in. Fingers crossed for a good/positive result on Sunday! Have a lovely weekend all .

I see on Twitter that Larry, the Downing Street cat, has announced his intention to stand. He says we need a sensible alternative if Boris is running

Marina Hyde:

'a European elections campaign where we learned that milkshakes are “political violence” and rape threats are “satire”'