Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Pmk

LonelyTiredandLow
Vote the 'hypocrisy party'!
He will obviously be available locally in the NE to look after the good people there.
With the possibility of some work from the NE ending up in France he might have a bit of explaining to do.
Nissan being bought or already part owned by PSA IIRC?

Exit poll from Ireland:

www.rte.ie/news/2019/0524/1051567-strong-support-for-greens-in-euro-elections-exit-poll/

Incredible result for the Greens. They're a very small party and typically only have about 3% support, but they're topping the poll in Dublin and look like getting a seat in each of the other two constituencies. Totally unexpected but fantastic news.

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PMK

Hello, I usually just lurk on these threads but wanted to post to say thank you for all of your informative posts.

I worked on a polling station yesterday, in a strong remain area. I'm not sure about the turnout but it seemed similar to the local elections. The ballot papers were huge and the ballot box was full up by the end of the day.

Sakura7 I watched this - very envious, in Scotland there is no exit poll, we just have to sit on our hands til Sunday (and even then Orkney - on account of the Sabbath - I believe won't start counting til Monday) to get any sense of what the result here will be. I'm hoping for the same outcome as prettybird but agree that we are likely to end up with one repackaged UKIPper.

On the bright side I am looking forward to listening to Ruth Davidson as she pledges allegiance to Boris and tries to ignore the likely result of no Conservative MEP for Scotland.

This from Marina Hyde sounds very specific:
I don’t want to come over all Mystic Meg, but I am seeing a nightmarish news story in Dominic Raab’s future that will curtail any bid in fairly short order.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/24/theresa-may-tory-downing-street-leadership-contest?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Hadn't realised that the NE Turquoise Party candidate was that Brian Monteith

To use some quaint Scottish vernacular, he's a wee nyaff.

Me! Labour member but voted PC.

Same, I'm in the north (Gwynedd) and from what I can gather BXP will probably have done well, cant understand why these past few years my country has decided to get all ukippy

just you remind me of my friend a Welsh lovely exiled in the Mids said exactly the same thing about ukippyness after referendum she declared that there would be surge for Welsh independence from then on,

Could someone tell me why there haven’t been exit polls in the uk when other countries have conducted them? Sorry if it’s already been covered!

Thanks Red
I feel utterly despairing right now. I have done all I can realistically do - I have leafletted and canvassed to within an inch of my life. I just miss her.

I have an issue with DD’s relationship and I don’t want the ammunition to say that I was
never there for her. So I will back off for a couple of weeks. I really miss her, really miss her

The EU rules are that results are not allowed to be declared until after all countries have finished voting. The UK, in it's infinite need to make rules more stringent than they have to be and then complain about the EU, decided that exit polls should also be illegal. Other countries did not create this stupid and unnecessary rule and stuck to the actual EU rule.

Thanks Icantreach :)

JustAnotherPoster00

I’m just over the water from you

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The Wetherspoons guy was on the BBC World Service. He literally said -I'm not lying about this - that a no deal Brexit would be "amazing".

Posted this on the Rejoice thread. It so deserves many many viewings.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-21916385/boris-johnson-grilled-on-integrity-ahead-of-tv-documentary

Yes, the media narrative starts where No Deal isn't so bad and it's all Project Fear and Dunkirk spirit and unpatriotic and other stupid shit.
On the delightful Leavers Rejoice thread there are some supposed grown ups threatening Remainers with undefined comeuppance which will be sorted by Boris.
I don't know which is worse, ramped up bullshit or seeing how bullshitters react when they finally twig.

So interesting to see Sam McBride suggesting that too. It suggests something of an end to the religious tribalism through a drop off in support for unionism - whether that be through apathy or a polarisation of NI politics or both.

Or it could be that only diehard DUP voted, out of spite, with many other unionists staying home or voting Alliance (Naomi Long).

If SF do win a seat that may mean that the SDLP are truly a spent force in nationalist/republican politics and SF is fast becoming the only voice of this community. This conclusion is also suggested by results of the recent local elections in NI.

.............
From Ireland:
Incredible result for the Greens. They're a very small party and typically only have about 3% support, but they're topping the poll in Dublin and look like getting a seat in each of the other two constituencies. Totally unexpected but fantastic news
Sakura
..including a relative of mine - family quite excited...

I woke up feeling utterly despondent. Once again Farage has come along and aroused a rabble and people have fallen for it. I remember that it must have been back in 2005 that one of the local pubs had a UKIP sign and I thought then that they were a spent force. How wrong I was. Fararge/UKIP gained support and got Cameron rattled, so rattled that he called the Referendum, and lost leaving the mess we have now.

Once Farage realised that he was no longer in control of UKIP he withdrew, bided his time, and bingo just as the Euro elections come along invents the Brexit party. The end result, another Tory PM has their Premiership wrecked. Admittedly in both Cameron and May's cases well assisted by their own stupid decisions. I have developed an utter loathing for May, but I am prepared to admit that she was a good constituency MP at least, from what I have been told, and really did try to do her duty. What has Farage ever done? Why oh why are the Tories so scared of him? Of course he allows the disaster capitalists in their ranks to get away with their tricks but why else?

Then we have those people on the Leavers rejoice thread refusing to see what Farage is made of. But we mustn't even question them, let alone criticise them, or we are bullying them and besmirching the name of their hero. Well, when your industries go, and your jobs go, don't look to Farage to bail you out.

I understand now why 1930s Germans fell for Hitler, (but shush, don't tell Leavers that, how dare I mention that. They aren't Nazis.)

I should qualify that Not all Leavers, but I have difficulty finding any personally.

Peregrina the comparison with the 1930s is strong for me too. It hit especially hard when I saw the smiley Brexit grannies outside Asda. They looked about the same age as me so must have grown up, as I did, well aware of the Second WW, its causes and consequences. That’s why I found them so worrying.

UKIP gained support and got Cameron rattled, so rattled that he called the Referendum,

I think that the right wing of his own party got Cameron rattled. UKIP consistently failed to get even 1 MP. I think Cameron did a quick EU negotiation got yet more special treatment for the U.K. within the EU. Yet still the internal 70+? faction of Fox, JRM etc were agitating. He had a fit of pique and promised them a referendum. It wasn't public pressure as all polls show the EU was a low priority for the public.

It's like when your child pesters for sweets, the ERG were pestering and Cameron just snapped. He effectively said you want the bloody sweets then have them, make yourselves sick what do I care.