Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Rory Stewart is the sort of self sacrificing politician who, as PM, would pull out all the stops to get some sort of arrangement, take all the flak and then retire gracefully to some remote tribal area to live among more reasonable people than are found in the Conservative party.

I thought McDonald has been on board with a PV for ages, as soon as it was decided in conference

I love Larry, he has a great cattitude.

Also, happy Towel Day to you all! Don't Panic, grab a towel!

Rory would be the most moderate choice therefore he will have no chance with party members especially if Boris is the other choice. I listened to Political Thinking with Nick Robinson and Rory is genuinely a decent guy and he at least has grasped that at some point the WA has to be signed. Unfortunately an Etonian but at least one with substance. An ex diplomat who’s father was also a diplomat so at least he also understands the importance of maintaining good relations with our closest allies and neighbours.

We were already talked about with disbelief on the continent,
like an eccentric but previously reliable & loveable uncle who has taken to jumping on the table and pissing on everyone, while screaming obscenities.

Now there will be exasperation that we are going to waste yet more of the extension on having another Tory leadership campaign.
They were baffled enough that we wasted some A50 time earlier by having an unnecessary GE

Those like Tusk, Merkel, Rutte who in April invested their own political capital and effort into persuading Maron - and others - to give the UK more time,
must be absolutely fuming at how the country continues to waste it

The UK voted to Leave, but appears completely unwilling to accept the consequences of doing so
Politicians are just engaging in avoidance and displacement
No matter how long they do this, no unicorn cake will appear

I thought McDonnell was against a PV, but Watson has said one is needed to break the deadlock.

There is a strong dislike of the chance of UKIP or Brex candidates ending up as MEPs. This is not necessarily a problem if they are diligent, intelligent and fight for the UK citizens in a constructive manner.
We have got used to seeing Farage being a totally useless twat and deliberately disrupting the business in Brussels. Had he been awake/present/given a shit about fishing he would have pointed out that selling UK fishing boats included fishing quotas, as opposed to those of other countries where it was simply the boat that was sold.
As commented a while ago, modern warfare between developed countries will be of the cyber attack variety, damage to the running of infrastructure (crashing the computers, not physical) and attacks on currency. Putin wants to keep a ring of neighbours around Russia who are beholden to him as a buffer and is prepared to be unsubtle about it (Ukraine for example).
I could see Boris as being a leader who could get away with saying the UK will remain. That part would be fine, but I doubt he has the dedication and a careful but firm hand to tell the 'Brexiteers' to STFU when the whinge about democracy. Presuming the next PM will be voted for not appointed that is democracy in action.
Similarly if the next PM does go ahead with leaving it will take someone with a lot of skill and a very firm plan to prevent the UK economy crashing fatally, if this is indeed possible. The will need to actually deliver what the leavers were saying they wanted, AND contain a lot of very annoyed 'remainers' who are having their rights and livelihood eroded.
Unfortunately 'Flash Gordon' is a comic saviour.

Big totally agree we want to leave but don’t want to deal with the consequences.

They will not be happy until Boris boards the Eurostar to Brussels waving his Union Jack. Comes back and says errr well yes actually she was right we need to sign the thingy first .....

I was convinced none of them would actually follow through will No Deal in an interview I recall Steve Baker saying of the ERG only Redwood was pushing no deal agenda the rest of them seem to think Europe will magically open the WA. However with Farage pushing the No Deal agenda hard and doing well in the Euros they might just do it.

However with Farage pushing the No Deal agenda hard and doing well in the Euros they might just do it.

Only if they have the mental age of a toddler.
No Deal amounts to breaking the toy you want so that another child doesn't get it.

I thought the disclosure by Rory Stewart that Johnson had now back tracked on his no deal reassurances given in a private meeting. This contest is not going to be a coronation and Johnson could easily be skewered by a decent interviewer. Stewart comes over as sincere and honest. He answers the bloody questions for a start. I hope he becomes the quiet outsider who makes an impression. The batshit membership are easily swayed.

{They will not be happy until Boris boards the Eurostar to Brussels waving his Union Jack. Comes back and says errr well yes actually she was right we need to sign the thingy first .....}

Brilliant, pointing out that his lack of detail probably will mean he can't remember the 'thingy's proper title.

Gus O'Donnel was interviewed on SKY shortly after May's speech and he was sounding so grown up. He was actually saying what the problems are and appreciated the position that the UK is in. Suggesting there are people who understand the problem.
A proper cross party group is obviously the way to resolve this mess, and ultimately it has to happen. It needs a 'charismatic' leader to do some proper shouting, but who also listens to their colleagues and does not go off on a 'power trip'.

France (European Election), Ipsos poll:

RN-ENF: 25% (+0.5)
LREM+ALDE: 23% (-0.5)
LR-EPP: 13%
EELV-G/EFA: 9.5% (+0.5)
FI-LEFT: 7.5%
PS/PP-S&D: 5.5%
DLF-ECR: 3.5%
G.s-S&D: 2.5% (-0.5)
...

+/- vs. 22-23 May '19

Field work: 24 May '19
Sample size: 5,877
➤ t.co/qOzl2nSVPC t.co/CuDONytX1K

Rory Stewart is ex military. All the traitor stuff will wash over him. I think he is sincere when he says won't serve under Boris. He has 0 chance of being PM.

No Deal amounts to breaking the toy you want so that another child doesn't get it.

Not only breaking it, breaking it by repeatedly hitting yourself over the head with it...

Thanks RTB
I am hoping that Mr Macron's party have a decent working majority to get things done but with a strong opposition to keep them on their toes. I can't work out if the poll results suggest this or not.

Pretty pictures

Estonia, Kantar Emor poll:

R-ALDE: 31% (-3)
EKRE-ENF: 15% (-2)
K-ALDE: 15%
SDE-S&D: 12% (-1)
E200-: 12%
I-EPP: 8% (+2)
ER-G/EFA: 5% (+3)

ERE-EFDD 3% (+2)
EVA-: 1% (+1)

+/- with 7-9 May 2019

Field work: 20/05/19-23/05/19
Sample size: 1390 t.co/2XfipmnJ5e

Europe Elects has a live prediction graphic for the whole of the EU parliament

Song totally agree to end up with no deal by design but I can see us getting there via incompetence.

They put Brexshit Party on 30 seats.

Red Dear god 30 seats !!!!

Hope tactical voting hasn’t massively backfired?

Tower hamlets
EU Elections update:

After verification, we can confirm that a total of 68,011 votes were cast, including 15,514 postal votes.

That gives an overall turnout of 39.06%.

Counting will take place tomorrow and the London region result will be declared at City Hall after 10pm.

Remain area. Turnout apparently down 10% on 2014

I have my concerns about the tactical voting suggestions for Scotland - I hope I'm wrong

The suggestions for the SW seemed strange too, with an existing and respected Green MEP in Molly Scott Cato

Red that’s bad re Tower Hamlets are we thinking lots of Labour protest votes by staying at home ?

My fear was all extra remain votes were just plugging the gap left by absentee Labour votes which is quite understandable given the Party’s stance I guess. I completely understand their motives trying to please both ends of there voters but ultimately pleasing no-one whilst both no deal and remain are up for grabs.

The big question will be is Corbyn more worried about losing leave votes to Brexit Party or remain vote staying at home ? Which would do most damage ?

With Tory party in disarray as opposition leader he really should be doing better in the polls it should be a slam dunk.